On Monday night Scott Morrison again voiced the government’s intention to create a net-zero economy “as quickly as possible and preferably by 2050” in a speech widely interpreted as an effort to delicately shift Australia’s climate position another pace closer to that of its international peers.
That may have been the case, but the speech also highlighted how isolated Australia has become in a world that has largely banked its 2050 targets and is now concerned with 2030 plans.
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| US President Joe Biden is expected to ramp up pressure on Australia to act on climate change. Credit: AP |
This is because over the past year or so about two thirds of the world’s economy has either formally adopted or accepted 2050 net zero targets. On this point China is now aligned with the US, the UK, the EU, Japan and South Korea, among others.
The reasons for the unanimity of focus on near-term goals are threefold. Firstly the Paris process functions like a ratchet – negotiators secured global agreement to a distant, politically viable goal, and then began raising the bar.
The second reason is scientific. Carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for between 300 and 1000 years, so any greenhouse gas we emit today joins the “stock” already there. If our emissions remain high today but we suddenly reach net zero in, say 2049, we are still compounding climate damage day by day until then.
As a result, the authors of the agreement always envisioned a steady emissions decline.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the body through which Paris was negotiated - says a 45 per cent reduction by 2030 is necessary to meet net zero 2050.
As a wealthy industrialised nation the pressure is on Australia to do more than that to allow developing nations to secure some of the industrial and economic benefits we have already enjoyed.
The third reason is technical. Whatever the value of newly developed technologies - such as the hydrogen linked to carbon capture and storage that has attracted funding from the Morrison government - there is no time left. To reach a net zero 2050 goal massive reductions need to begin today using today’s technology.
If Morrison was to announce 2050 net zero target and did so without a credible 2030 target, “It’s not gonna be taken seriously, it’ll be seen as rhetorical posturing,” Meyer told the Herald and the Age.
Meyer, who has close ties with members of Biden’s climate team, believes the costs of posturing rather than acting will soon become concrete.
“Australians are going to be hearing about this in every meeting they go to.”The European Union has made it clear that it intends to introduce a border tariff on emissions intensive imports from countries that do not price carbon.
Last week the new US Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, gave a speech signalling the US is considering similar measures.
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“For too long, the traditional trade community has resisted the view that trade policy is a legitimate tool in helping to solve the climate crisis.”
Campaigning for the White House, Biden said that climate change would be a central focus of his presidency and that he would seek to encourage global action to tackle it using the full machinery of America’s government and diplomatic corps.
Since his election the energy with which he has pursued the issue has startled even some of the most optimistic climate change advocates. This week he is expected to announce the doubling of America’s 2030 target to 50 per cent reductions.
Morrison has so far indicated that he has no plans to increase Australia’s goal of 26-28 per cent reductions by 2030.
According to Meyer, Biden’s focus on 2030 targets this week - and this year - will be both intense and relentless.
“It’s not only going to be an issue when Scott Morrison has bilateral conversations with President Biden or when John Kerry comes to Canberra,” Meyer told a webinar hosted by the Australia Institute on Wednesday.
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When they go to the G20 finance ministers meeting, they’re going to hear from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the importance of addressing the climate issue and getting rid of fossil fuel subsidies.
“This is going to be unrelenting pressure on every front where Australia has to deal with the United States and I think increasingly with other countries as well.”
In this light, edging towards 2050 rather than charging towards 2030 is unlikely to satisfy global expectations.
Links
- World’s oceans changing as currents show new patterns
- The feds have ditched us on climate change, it’s time we ditch them too
- ‘There are no jobs on a dead planet’, Sharan Burrow tells Biden’s summit
- Scott Morrison is out of sync with the world on climate policy
- Big inland flows to fill Menindee Lakes for first time in five years
- Australia left behind as global climate action gathers pace
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