Summary |
- Farm profits already down 23% due to climate change
- Up to 50% further profit loss projected by 2050
- Western Australia cropping at high risk from rainfall decline
- Livestock sectors face severe heat and water stress
- Extreme weather disrupts food supply and raises prices
- Grain prices could rise 3–24% by 2050
- CO₂ may reduce crop nutritional value
- Water scarcity threatens irrigation industries
- Australia's food export status at risk
- Adaptation and emission cuts are essential
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Australia’s food production systems are among the most climate-exposed in the world.
This is due to the country’s highly variable weather, large agricultural sector, and reliance on both domestic and export markets.
As climate change accelerates, its effects are already being felt across the nation’s farms and food supply chains.
Looking ahead to the mid (to 2050) and long-term (to 2100), the impacts are expected to intensify, presenting profound challenges for productivity, profitability, and food security.
Declining Productivity and Profitability
Research shows that climate change has already reduced average farm profits in Australia.
Between 2001 and 2020, broadacre farm profits fell by an average of 23% (about $29,200 per farm per year) compared to the period 1950–2000, largely due to changes in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures1.
Looking forward, climate models project that by 2050, under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), average farm profits could decline by up to 31.9%, and under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), losses could reach nearly 50%1.
The impacts are not uniform.
Cropping regions in Western Australia are particularly vulnerable, with projected winter rainfall declines of up to 30% under high emissions scenarios, compounding recent losses1.
Livestock sectors, especially southern beef and sheep, could see profit declines of up to 63.8% under the harshest climate projections1.
Regional and Sectoral Vulnerabilities
The effects of climate change on food production will vary by region and sector.
Inland and marginal agricultural areas, such as western New South Wales and central Queensland, face greater risks due to their reliance on variable rainfall and exposure to extreme temperatures1.
Conversely, some coastal and higher-rainfall regions may fare better, but they too will face increasing challenges from heatwaves, pests, and diseases.
Livestock production is particularly sensitive to heat stress and water scarcity.
Higher temperatures reduce animal growth rates, milk yields, and reproductive performance, while also increasing mortality risk3.
Water availability for both livestock and irrigation will become more unreliable, especially in key regions like the Murray-Darling Basin1.
Threats to Food Security and Supply Chains
Climate change will not only affect what and how much Australia can grow, but also the reliability and cost of food supplies.
Extreme weather events, such as droughts, bushfires, floods, and cyclones, are expected to become more frequent and severe.
These events can disrupt harvests, damage infrastructure, and interrupt transport, leading to supply shortages and price spikes4.
For example, Cyclone Larry in 2006 destroyed most of northern Queensland’s banana crop, causing prices to soar by over 500%4.
Droughts have repeatedly driven up grain and livestock prices, with flow-on effects for food processors and consumers.
By 2050, grain prices in Australia could rise by 3–24% due to more frequent droughts and reduced yields4.
Nutritional and Quality Impacts
Rising atmospheric CO₂ can affect the nutritional quality of crops.
Studies suggest that higher CO₂ levels can reduce the protein, zinc, and iron content of staple cereals, while also impacting vitamin levels in fruits and vegetables5.
Additionally, increased heat and drought stress can lower yields and quality, making it harder to meet both domestic and export standards.
Water Scarcity and Changing Land Suitability
Water is a critical limiting factor for Australian agriculture.
Climate change is projected to reduce rainfall in southern and eastern Australia, particularly in winter and spring, leading to lower river flows and groundwater recharge1.
This threatens the viability of irrigation-dependent industries, such as fruit, vegetable, rice, and cotton production in the Murray-Darling Basin1.
As rainfall patterns shift, some traditional cropping and grazing regions may become unsuitable for their current uses, forcing farmers to either adapt by changing crops and practices or abandon agriculture altogether2.
Economic and Export Implications
Australia is a major exporter of wheat, beef, wool, and other agricultural products.
Climate-induced declines in productivity could threaten this status, potentially turning Australia from a net food exporter to a net importer for some staples2.
This would have significant implications for rural economies, national income, and global food markets.
Higher production costs (for water, feed, pest control, and insurance), combined with increasing supply chain disruptions, are likely to drive up consumer food prices and increase volatility4.
Vulnerable populations, especially in remote and Indigenous communities, could face heightened food insecurity2.
Adaptation and Resilience
Despite these challenges, Australian agriculture has a strong record of adaptation and innovation.
Farmers are already adopting drought-resistant crops, improved water management, and regenerative practices to build soil health and resilience.
However, the scale and speed of projected climate impacts mean that adaptation alone may not be enough without broader efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support rural communities1.
Conclusion
In summary, the mid to long-term effects of climate change on Australian food production are likely to be profound and far-reaching.
Without decisive action, Australia faces declining farm profits, reduced food security, and increased vulnerability to extreme events.
Building resilience through adaptation, innovation, and emissions reduction will be essential to safeguard the nation’s food future.
References
- Hughes, N., et al. "Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms." Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 2022.
- Cribb, J. "Climate change and food security in Australia." Australian Academy of Science, 2021.
- Henry, B., et al. "Livestock production in a changing climate: adaptation and mitigation research in Australia." Crop and Pasture Science, 2012.
- Hughes, N. "Climate change impacts on food supply chains in Australia." ABARES Insights, 2021.
- Myers, S. S., et al. "Increasing CO₂ threatens human nutrition." Nature, 2014.