Suburban furnaces: How planning locks lethal heat into Australia's growth corridors - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Western Sydney records temperatures 5–10°C hotter than coastal areas during heatwaves1 Penrith hit 48.9°C in 2020, hottest place on Earth2 Renters and low-income households face highest heat vulnerability3 Brisbane and Perth suburbs projected 40–50°C days by 2060–20804 Western Sydney could see 24 days over 35°C annually by 20505 80% sealed surfaces in some western Sydney suburbs trap heat overnight6

On 4 January 2020, Penrith in Western Sydney became the hottest place on Earth.²

Temperatures reached 48.9°C as concrete sprawl and absent sea breezes trapped the summer sun's full force.

Renters in uninsulated fibro homes across the Cumberland Plain sweltered without relief.

Western Sydney, Brisbane's outer sprawl, and Perth's treeless suburbs now bake through longer summers.

Planning decisions made decades ago lock in lethal heat for low-income households.

Australia's fastest-growing regions face compounding risks from urban heat islands and climate warming.

Those least able to cool their homes bear the heaviest burden.³

Historical heat patterns

Western Sydney temperatures consistently run 5°C hotter than coastal areas.¹

Analysis of 1962–2021 weather data shows one in ten summer days in the west exceeds 35.4°C.

Coastal suburbs by contrast see 30.4°C on equivalent days.¹

Penrith recorded 47 days over 35°C in 2019 alone.²

Richmond RAAF base logged 39 extreme heat days in 2017.⁵

Brisbane's western corridor experiences similar intensification from sprawl.

Perth maintains Australia's lightest tree canopy among capitals.¹⁴

Who feels the heat most

Western Sydney houses 2.5 million residents, projected to grow by 400,000 by 2030.¹²

More than 60 per cent rent their homes in high-heat suburbs like Blacktown and Penrith.

Low-income households cluster where sealed surfaces cover 80 per cent of land.⁶

Renters lack capital for insulation, solar panels, or cool roofs.

Recent migrants and single-parent families predominate in heat-vulnerable postcodes.

Indigenous households face compounded risks in outer metropolitan areas.

Diabetes rates already exceed state averages across these suburbs.¹³

Future heat projections

Western Sydney faces 24 days over 35°C annually by 2050.⁵

Four days could exceed 40°C in peak summers.

Brisbane and Perth suburbs face regular 40°C days by 2060–2080.⁴

Sydney's hottest days could reach 50°C under current development patterns.

Climate models project 50 per cent more heatwave days across all three regions by 2050.

Overnight temperatures will remain above 30°C more frequently.⁶

Population growth amplifies exposure across all demographics.

Public health consequences

Heat kills more Australians than all other natural disasters combined.

Western Sydney emergency admissions spike 20 per cent during extreme heat events.

Children and elderly renters suffer highest dehydration and heat stress rates.

Sleep disruption from overnight heat impairs cognitive function and work productivity.

Hospitals in Penrith and Blacktown divert resources from chronic disease management.

Mental health presentations rise 15 per cent post-heatwave.

Productivity losses reach $A1.8 billion annually in affected regions.

Planning decisions compound risk

Concrete and asphalt cover 80 per cent of some western Sydney suburbs.⁶

These surfaces absorb daytime heat and radiate it overnight.

Planning approvals prioritise density over canopy preservation.

Brisbane's growth corridors sacrifice bushland for low-rise estates.

Perth's light tree cover receives no mandated replacement policy.

Car-dependent design forces outdoor exposure during peak heat.

Free-standing homes predominate where medium-density cools naturally.

Local adaptation efforts

Blacktown Council trials heat refuges in shopping precincts.

Cumberland playgrounds install UV-smart shaded equipment.¹⁴

Penrith experiments with cool pavements in public spaces.

Brisbane tests water fountains as thermal oases.

Perth explores reflective roof rebates for rental properties.

Western Sydney University monitors air temperatures exceeding 50°C.

State planning portals now mandate heat impact assessments.

What planners must prioritise

Regional planners face clear patterns in heat-vulnerable development.

Western Sydney's trajectory shows sealed surfaces drive overnight heat retention.

Low-income renters require different protections than homeowners.

Population growth demands heat-smart density over low-rise sprawl.

Brisbane and Perth repeat Sydney's mistakes without intervention.

Five-year planning cycles must embed heat projections in zoning.

Canopy loss receives no automatic offset in current frameworks.

Medium-density clusters with open parkland cool surrounding suburbs measurably.

State governments control 70 per cent of growth area approvals.

Local councils lack resources for comprehensive heat mapping.

Retrofitting rentals demands landlord incentives absent from current policy.

Workforce shortages delay cool roof and shading retrofits.

Heat vulnerability mapping must guide all rezoning decisions.

Development applications require pre-lodgement heat audits.

Population projections integrate worst-case warming scenarios.

Public health metrics weight equally with housing targets.

References

• Climate Change Worsens Western Sydney's Urban Heat Island
• Urban heat and the future of Western Sydney
• How vulnerable are Australia's cities to extreme heat?
• Temperature check: Greening Australia's warming cities
• Urban heat - NSW Planning Portal
• Urban heat and the future of Western Sydney
• How Australian cities can cope with more record-breaking heat

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Heat on the Frontline: How Climate Change Is Reshaping Emergency Care in Canberra - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Extreme temperatures now drive roughly one in fifteen emergency visits in Canberra, signalling climate change is at the hospital front door1. Heat and cold together have already sent nearly 94,000 Canberrans to emergency departments since 2000, with demand projected to keep rising in a warming climate2. Young people, working-age adults and older Canberrans are all affected differently by temperature extremes, exposing gaps in one-size-fits-all health planning3. Climate change is expected to intensify peak-period overcrowding, ambulance demand and workforce strain in inland emergency departments across Australia4. ACT climate risk assessments already flag increased pressure on health services from heat, smoke and extreme weather, but adaptation efforts remain uneven and fragmented5. Targeted measures – from heat-health plans and urban cooling to better housing and hospital preparedness – will shape how well Canberra’s health system copes with a hotter, smokier future6.

On a still January afternoon in Canberra, the waiting room at the city’s main emergency department is already full before the hottest part of the day arrives.¹

Parents fan flushed toddlers, an older man with a heart condition clutches a water bottle, and a young cyclist waits with heat cramps after an ambitious lunchtime ride.²

For clinicians on triage, the pattern has become familiar enough to feel like a seasonal forecast in real time.³

As temperatures climb, emergency presentations rise with them, not only for heatstroke but for asthma, cardiac events, kidney stress and mental health crises.⁴

New research from the Australian National University suggests these spikes are no longer just bad-luck heatwaves but a measurable signal of climate change in the ACT’s hospital data.⁵

Inland emergency departments, long geared to cold winters and bushfire smoke, are now functioning as an early warning system for a hotter, more volatile climate.⁶

What happens at the ED front door in Canberra over the next few summers will help determine whether the health system can keep pace with the climate it is entering, not the one it was built for.⁵

Historical impacts and trends

Over the last two decades, temperature extremes have quietly become a defining driver of emergency demand in the ACT.¹

A study led by ANU researchers found that extreme hot and cold weather together now account for about one in every fifteen emergency department presentations in Canberra, a proportion that has grown as the climate has warmed.²

The analysis, which examined ACT emergency data from 2000 to 2021, identified almost 36,000 heat-related presentations, representing one in forty, or 2.5 per cent, of all visits over that period.³

Over the same years more than 57,600 presentations, roughly 4 per cent, were associated with cold conditions, a reminder that inland cities face a twin burden of winter chill and summer heat.⁴

Researchers found emergency visits increased not only on very hot days but whenever temperatures rose well above local seasonal norms, and they also climbed when overnight and daytime temperatures fell below about 14 degrees.⁵

That threshold effect matters because Canberra has already warmed by more than 1 degree since the mid‑20th century, shifting the distribution of days above and below the comfort zone that historically defined local health planning.⁶

Across these years, climate-sensitive presentations have spanned a spectrum of conditions rather than a single diagnostic category.⁷

International and national reviews of emergency medicine show that heatwaves increase visits for heat exhaustion and heatstroke but also for cardiovascular events such as heart attacks and strokes, respiratory illnesses including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and renal complications driven by dehydration and electrolyte imbalance.⁸

Australian studies in Brisbane, Adelaide and Sydney have reported heatwaves increasing heat-related emergency presentations from several-fold to more than tenfold, particularly among older adults, suggesting that the ACT’s emerging pattern is part of a broader national trend.⁹

The seasonal timing of emergency demand is changing with the climate as well as its volume.¹⁰

ACT climate assessments show that hot days and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, especially in spring and summer, which now overlap with the peak of bushfire smoke and pollen seasons to create compound respiratory risks.¹¹

During the Black Summer fires, smoke and heat together produced sharp increases in hospital admissions and emergency visits for asthma and other breathing problems, foreshadowing how multiple climate hazards can converge on EDs within the same season.¹²

Demographic vulnerability

The ANU study found that climate-related emergency presentations in the ACT are not evenly distributed across the population, with distinct patterns emerging by age.³

Young people under 20 were significantly more likely to present on hot days, often on the day of the temperature spike itself, reflecting activity-related exposure such as sport and outdoor work or study.⁴

Adults aged 20 to 60 faced increased risk on both extreme and moderately hot days, which researchers linked to occupational exposure, commuting patterns and the cumulative effects of several warm nights on underlying health conditions.⁵

Older Canberrans experienced a different, but equally concerning, profile.⁶

People over 60 were more likely to present to emergency departments after periods of extreme cold, consistent with well-documented links between low temperatures, cardiovascular stress and respiratory infections in older bodies, yet they also remained vulnerable during heatwaves.⁷

That dual sensitivity means older residents in poorly insulated housing or on fixed incomes can be hit twice each year, first by winter bills and cold-related illness, then by summer heat and smoke.⁸

While the ACT research has not yet published a full breakdown by sex for each diagnostic group, broader Australian and international evidence provides a guide to likely patterns.⁹

Studies of heatwaves in other Australian cities have found that older women are disproportionately represented among heat-related hospitalisations, reflecting longer life expectancy, higher rates of living alone and chronic illness, and gendered patterns of poverty, while men are more prominent among outdoor work and sport-related injuries in extreme heat.¹⁰

These subtler demographic gradients mean the same temperature spike can translate into different kinds of risk for different groups, complicating the job of emergency planners seeking to forecast demand.¹¹

Socioeconomic and social isolation factors further heighten exposure.¹²

The ACT’s climate risk assessment warns that heatwaves, smoke and storms are likely to increase pressure on health, emergency response and recovery services, particularly for people in low-quality housing, those with existing chronic illnesses and community members who are socially isolated or lack access to cool, clean indoor spaces.¹³

For residents managing conditions such as heart disease, diabetes or chronic lung disease, or for people with severe mental illness, extreme heat can destabilise medication regimes, impair judgement and increase the risk of both physical collapse and acute psychological distress, all of which can bring them to the ED door.¹⁴

Future projections

Looking ahead to mid‑century, the ANU team modelled how a warming climate is likely to reshape emergency demand in the ACT under plausible emissions and temperature scenarios.¹⁵

They estimated that heat-related presentations could rise to as many as 90,000 between 2040 and 2061, representing about 2.7 per cent of all emergency visits, while the proportion of cold-related presentations declines but the absolute number still exceeds 81,000 over the same period.¹⁶

In effect, Canberra’s hospitals are expected to see more patients harmed by heat without a corresponding disappearance of cold-related burden, creating a wider band of climate-sensitive demand rather than a simple seasonal shift from winter to summer risk.¹⁷

National and international projections suggest that these dynamics are unlikely to be unique to the capital.¹⁸

A narrative review of climate change and emergency medicine concluded that global warming is expected to increase the prevalence of emergency presentations for cardiovascular disease, respiratory conditions, renal complications and some gastrointestinal illnesses, as well as trauma and mental health crises linked to extreme weather events.¹⁹

Australian evidence points to similar trajectories, with previous work in Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide showing that once temperatures cross local thresholds, emergency visits, ambulance callouts and high-acuity presentations all rise steeply, a pattern likely to intensify as heatwaves lengthen and nights stay warmer.²⁰

For Canberra, the ACT State of the Environment reports project more hot days above 35 degrees, longer and more frequent heatwaves and heightened bushfire danger by mid‑century, particularly in the northern parts of the territory.²¹

These climatic shifts are expected to increase the number of days each year when temperatures exceed the thresholds associated with higher ED presentations in the ANU study, effectively widening the window of risk.²²

In practice that means more summers where emergency departments are managing heat illness, cardiac and respiratory flare‑ups and mental health crises on top of smoke exposure and injury patterns linked to storms, fires and flash floods.²³

Public health and system implications

The convergence of climate, demographic and health trends has direct implications for how emergency departments in Canberra and inland Australia plan for peak demand.²⁴

Professor Hilary Bambrick, director of the ANU National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, has warned that even small increases in local temperature can make people unwell and intensify pressure on hospitals, underscoring that climate change is now one of the country’s biggest public health challenges rather than a distant environmental concern.²⁵

For emergency clinicians, that translates into more high‑acuity patients on heatwave days, more crowded waiting rooms and more difficult decisions about prioritising care when multiple climate-sensitive conditions peak together.²⁶

Peak-period overcrowding is already a chronic issue in many Australian EDs, and climate change risks turning seasonal surges into a more consistent feature of the workload.²⁷

Research on heatwaves in Queensland has shown that high temperatures increase not only the number of ED visits but also the proportion that are high acuity and result in admission, which in turn constrains bed availability and slows patient flow through emergency units.²⁸

Ambulance services face parallel pressures, with warmer nights and multi‑day heatwaves associated with sustained increases in callouts for cardiac events, breathing difficulties and falls, as overheating, dehydration and smoky air interact with pre‑existing illness and medication use.²⁹

The strain is not only on physical infrastructure but on the workforce itself.³⁰

Clinicians and support staff working through rolling climate disasters must manage the emotional load of treating more preventable illness, while dealing with their own heat stress, smoke exposure and family responsibilities during extreme events.³¹

Without adequate staffing buffers, surge protocols and rest periods, a hotter climate risks amplifying burnout, absenteeism and turnover in emergency medicine, especially in smaller inland hospitals with limited redundancy.³²

Adaptation and policy response

The ACT government has begun to integrate climate health risks into planning, but the pace and scope of adaptation remain uneven compared with projected emergency demand.³³

Territory climate risk assessments highlight increased pressure on health and emergency services from more frequent heatwaves, smoke, dust storms and thunderstorm asthma events, and call for measures such as identifying smoke‑proof refuges and retrofitting public buildings to better control indoor temperatures and air quality.³⁴

These documents frame EDs as part of a broader resilience system that also includes primary care, mental health services, housing, transport and community services, rather than as stand‑alone facilities that can simply “scale up” indefinitely.³⁵

Heat‑health action plans are a central tool in many jurisdictions, combining public alerts, targeted outreach to vulnerable groups, adjustments to ambulance and hospital staffing, and advice to workplaces, schools and sporting organisations when temperatures are forecast to exceed critical thresholds.³⁶

For an inland city like Canberra, effective plans will need to account for both summer heatwaves and cold snaps, the interplay with air pollution episodes, and the different timing of risks facing children, working-age adults and older people identified in the ANU emergency data.³⁷

Without such tailored triggers, there is a risk that EDs will continue to see preventable spikes in presentations among groups that could have been supported earlier through primary care, housing and community services.³⁸

Urban cooling and housing standards are emerging as frontline health interventions in a warming climate.³⁹

The ACT’s planning documents point to opportunities for more tree canopy, water-sensitive urban design and better-insulated, energy‑efficient housing to reduce exposure to both heat and cold, especially in suburbs with higher concentrations of older or low-income residents who are over-represented in climate-sensitive ED presentations.⁴⁰

For renters and social housing tenants, minimum thermal performance standards can be as important as hospital capacity, because they determine whether people can safely stay at home during a heatwave instead of relying on emergency care once they have already become unwell.⁴¹

Hospitals themselves are increasingly the focus of preparedness efforts.⁴²

Reviews of climate change and emergency medicine recommend that health services stress‑test their infrastructure, supply chains and surge plans against scenarios involving prolonged heat, smoke, power disruptions and overlapping disasters, rather than assuming short, isolated events.⁴³

In Canberra, that means aligning ED staffing, triage protocols, backup power and cooling systems, and mental health and social work support with the specific patterns of climate-sensitive demand now emerging in local data, from young people on hot days to older adults after cold spells.⁴⁴

Five-year horizon

Over the next five years, regional planners and policymakers in the ACT face a narrowing window to align climate, health and urban planning with what emergency departments are already seeing.⁴⁵

Key priorities flagged by evidence include refining temperature thresholds and early warning systems for ED demand, strengthening links between hospitals, primary care, housing and community services, and embedding climate scenarios into workforce and infrastructure planning so that inland emergency departments are not caught off‑guard by foreseeable heat and smoke seasons.⁴⁶

How effectively these steps are integrated will help determine whether Canberra’s EDs continue as a barometer of escalating climate risk or become a marker of how a community adapted in time to blunt the worst health impacts of a hotter, less predictable decade.⁴⁷

References

• Changing climate's impact on our health expected to put more pressure on inland hospital EDs, report warns – Region Canberra.
• 1 in 15 ACT Emergency Department visits linked to extreme weather – ANU National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health.
• Climate Change Risk Assessment for the ACT – ACT Government summary report.
• Dalla Vecchia C et al, Impact of climate change in emergency medicine: a narrative review – Journal of Public Health and Emergency, 2024.
• Two decades of climate change and its impact on health in the Australian Capital Territory – Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health (ScienceDirect index S1326020025000780).
• Heatwaves and emergency department visits in Brisbane – Toloo G et al, BMC Emergency Medicine, 2014, and related Australian heatwave ED literature.
• Climate change and environmental sustainability in emergency departments – narrative review of emergency attendances and climate impacts.
• Climate Change – ACT State of the Environment web section on current and projected climate trends.

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Rivers of Death - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb 

AUTHOR Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

The rivers that are the lifeblood of the planet and of human civilisation are dying. 

Worldwide, the evidence is unequivocal, massive, unchallengeable. Humans are hastening to destroy their main source of food, drink, nature and community, as fast as we can go.

The scientists who have observed and measured the plight of the world’s rivers, great and small, for almost a century are appalled. Almost nowhere are rivers in recovery. Almost everywhere they are in decline, for lack of water, lack of flow, a torrent of man-made poisons, sediment and filth and the universal desecration of river life.

The State of the World’s Rivers website provides a sickening snapshot of 50 of the world’s most important river basins, their decline and failing health. From the Amazon to the Zambesi it is a catalogue of destruction unmatched in human history, by societies mindlessly committed to their own self-annihilation.

For over seven thousand years, most cities and towns have been situated in river valleys. A trustworthy supply of clean, fresh water is a sine qua non of urban civilisation: no water, no city. That fundamental truth has been lost in desperate attempts to prop up dying systems that give life to landscapes and to people. Half the world’s food is grown using river water or on their floodplains. Rivers lie at the heart of local history, culture, beliefs, trade, leisure, tourism and adventure, wildlife and trees.

Worldwide some 50,000 dams have smashed the world’s great rivers into dislocated fragments, disrupting natural flood cycles, the hydrology that sustains the surrounding landscape and the movement of fishes, plants and animals. While dams may sound sensible from a water storage perspective, they also correlate with declining water quality, health and biota, trap sediment and toxins like mercury.

The primary threat to the world’s rivers is extraction of their water, for human uses such as agriculture, mining, industry and cities. 72 per cent of the water pumped from the world’s rivers is used to grow food. This is damaging great rivers such as the Yangtze, Yellow, Ganges, Nile, Niger, Congo, and Murray-Darling. Scientists warn that the emerging water scarcities that now threaten great cities and their food supplies may be seriously underestimated.

Under the lash of global heating, rivers worldwide are drying up at the fastest rate since the 1990s, posing a critical threat to ecosystems, agriculture, and human populations. The World Meteorological Organisation found 2023 to be the driest for 33 years for the world’s rivers, such as the Danube, Yangtse, Indus and Colorado, pitching the global hydrological cycle into disarray. This was accompanied by catastrophic mass loss caused by the melting of the mountain glaciers that feed many rivers.

As the Earth heats, more water evaporates, falling as heavier dumps of rain. Combined with the clearing of catchments and river basins this has greatly elevated the flood risk worldwide, resulting in the paradox that empty rivers can also pose a catastrophic flood threat.

Anywhere they contact humans, rivers are polluted. The largest pollutant is fertiliser from agriculture or gardens: tests show less than half of all fertiliser used ends up in crops. This means that over 100 million tonnes a year sinks into the water table, ending up in rivers, lakes or streams where it causes toxic algae to bloom and creates lifeless zones.

Food production also uses 5 million tonnes a year of highly toxic pesticide, much of which washes into rivers and lakes, poisoning their insects, fish and plant life. The loss of aquatic insects in particular is destroying food chains leading to birds, fish and reptiles, spreading extinction across entire landscapes and river basins.

Figure 1. Pollution state of the world’s key river basins. Source: International Rivers, 2026

Rivers with cities astride them suffer heavily from industrial pollution, including toxic chemicals, microplastics, heavy metals, oily street runoff, antibiotics, human hormones and drugs, poorly treated sewage and casual waste dumping. Ranked in order of foulness, the world’s top “Dirty Dozen” rivers are:

1. Hai Ho
2. Wisla
3. Dnepr
4. Tigris-Euphrates
5. Yellow
6. Danube
7. Mississippi
8. Godavari
9. Volta
10. Volga
11. Indus
12. Ganges-Brahmaputra

Rivers, lakes and wetlands are home to some 140,000 freshwater birds and animal species, most of which are now at risk. Freshwater animals have declined by 84% globally since 1970. This is the fastest rate of decline of any specialised group of species on the planet and reflects the impact of massively rising human pressures on the world’s river systems. Explicitly, the loss of waterlife spotlights our dead and dying rivers.

As the world water crisis builds and freshwater becomes a scarce resource, the human vultures are gathering to seize control of it. The world trend towards privatisation of water supplies has turned fresh water from being the central pillar of life on Earth to just another way to extort money from people and the environment. From the monopolisation of groundwater resources by transnational corporates to the exploitation of urban water and waste systems the world’s water supply is being turned into a cash cow that accelerates the destruction of the very resource it exploits. Almost nowhere are the world’s rivers being managed sustainably.

Water scarcity, in turn, is intensifying political tensions between water-rich and water-poor nations or segments of society, magnifying the threat of violence. Water wars have occurred for nearly 5000 years but have escalated in recent decades with shared rivers in the Middle East, Africa and SE Asia becoming particular flashpoints.

Despite many gallant attempts to restore or resurrect ruined rivers worldwide, the overall trend is towards collapse as an overpopulated humanity and corporate greed exert mindless pressure on a dwindling resource.

Noteworthy among river restoration efforts are:

• The removal of four dams on the Klamath River in California, leading to recovery in its migratory salmon population.
• The use of nature to restore the Dommel River in the Netherlands
• The cleansing of the Yodo River in Japan from its industrial waste
• Restoration of the Loire River valley in France for nature, history and multiple uses.
• A wide range of community-based river projects in the US.
• The UK’s filthiest river, the Mersey, is the subject of a major clean-up project.

The keys to success in river restoration are: comprehensive planning that embraces all aspects of river life and use; community engagement; adaptive management; partnership between government, NGOs, scientists, community and the private sector; long-term monitoring to measure success and identify emerging risks.

However, as human numbers burgeon, along with unrestrained demand for food, water, minerals and climate disruption, the rate at which the world’s rivers are degrading is also gathering pace.

Civilisation is built on rivers. When the rivers go, civilisation goes with them. They are a glaring warning lamp for our own demise.

Julian Cribb Articles

•  Unlike politicians, thermometers do not lie
• Welcome to BunkerWorld: Home of the rich and fearful
•  Wisdom of the elders
•  The black work of Big Oil
•  Stealing the Breath of Life
•  The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion
•  Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning
•  Military experts warn of climate wars
•  Tackling the Earth Emergency
•  A distracted world marches steadily towards catastrophe

The Defining Climate Questions for Australia in 2026 - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Australia faces intensifying heat, fires and floods that are reshaping daily life and risk across the continent.1 A major fossil fuel exporter, Australia’s exported emissions still dwarf its domestic footprint.2 Energy transition choices will shape cost-of-living pressures and industrial competitiveness this decade.3 Climate impacts are already eroding ecosystems, water security and biodiversity across the continent.4 Pacific neighbours view climate change as a frontline security threat, testing Australia’s regional leadership.5 Declining trust in institutions raises hard questions about who leads, who benefits and who bears climate risk.6

Australia steps into 2026 facing a climate crisis that has shifted from an abstract threat to a tangible strain on households, finances and public institutions.⁴

Years of record-breaking heat, damaging fires, severe floods and shifting rainfall have begun to redraw maps of where Australians can live, work and insure property.¹

At the same time, the country remains one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas, locking in emissions overseas even as domestic climate goals tighten.²

The choices made now about energy, land, finance and social protection will reverberate through a hotter, more volatile mid-century Australia.³

These choices are not only technical or economic; they are deeply social, cultural and ethical, cutting to questions of fairness, responsibility and power.

They also carry regional weight, as Pacific neighbours confront sea-level rise and climate damage that is already existential for some communities.⁵

This feature sets out the defining climate questions for Australia in 2026, interrogating what leaders across society must now confront rather than prescribing the answers.

Social

How will climate risk be shared between those who can move and those who cannot.

As extreme heat, coastal flooding and fire weather intensify, some households have the resources to relocate or retrofit, while others are effectively trapped in high-risk suburbs, towns and regions.¹

This raises difficult questions about who is left behind on the most exposed floodplains, fire fronts and coastlines, and what support they can expect.⁴

Leaders in government, finance, planning and community organisations must decide how to balance voluntary retreat, insurance withdrawal, public investment and social housing in a way that does not harden existing inequalities.

The consequences of inaction include deepening geographic segregation, growing resentment and escalating disaster recovery costs that fall disproportionately on lower income households.

What does a fair safety net look like in an era of rolling climate disasters.

Disaster relief, income support and mental health services are already under strain as more frequent and intense events compound on communities that have not fully recovered from previous floods or fires.⁷

The question for 2026 is whether Australia’s social protection architecture is designed for occasional shocks or for a new normal of overlapping, climate-driven disruptions.

Leaders must weigh how far to reorient welfare, health and community services toward prevention, long-term recovery and psychosocial support in places facing repeated loss of homes, jobs and social fabric.

Without such rethinking, climate impacts risk entrenching trauma, housing insecurity and chronic disadvantage in already marginalised communities.

How will health systems cope with a hotter, smokier and more disease-prone climate.

Rising temperatures, heatwaves and worsening bushfire smoke are increasing hospital admissions, straining emergency departments and exacerbating respiratory and cardiovascular disease across Australia.¹

Changes in rainfall and temperature also alter patterns of infectious disease, including mosquito-borne illnesses in northern regions.¹⁰

Health leaders must decide how to invest in heat-safe housing, urban shade, early warning systems and climate-informed public health planning to keep people well, especially older Australians, outdoor workers and people with chronic illness.

If this question is ducked, the health burden of climate change will grow, increasing costs for taxpayers and widening gaps in health outcomes between communities.

Can communities maintain social cohesion as climate impacts intensify.

Disasters often bring moments of solidarity, yet repeated shocks, rising insurance costs and perceived unfairness in recovery funding can lead to anger, division and declining trust in institutions.⁶

Leaders in local government, civil society, unions and faith communities face the challenge of sustaining cooperation across generations, incomes and regions as more people feel directly affected by climate risk.

This includes deciding how to involve residents in planning for retreat, rebuilding or transformation of their neighbourhoods, and how to recognise lived experience as a form of expertise.

Failing to address this risks a more fragmented Australia, where climate decisions are seen as imposed rather than negotiated, undermining legitimacy and compliance.

Economic

How will Australia manage the collision between cost-of-living pressures and the pace of the energy transition.

Households and businesses are grappling with high energy prices at the same time as the electricity system shifts toward more renewables, storage and transmission infrastructure.³

Leaders must decide how quickly to change the grid and transport systems while managing short-term bill impacts, reliability concerns and the risk of stranded assets.

This involves trade-offs between accelerating investment in clean technologies, protecting vulnerable consumers, and maintaining confidence among workers and industries that depend on existing fossil fuel infrastructure.

The consequences of mismanaging this balance could be public backlash, slower emissions reductions and lost opportunities in emerging clean industries.

What is the plan for regions whose economies depend on coal, gas and high-emissions industry.

Australia remains among the world’s leading exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas, with large regional workforces and revenue streams tied to these sectors.²

Global energy markets are shifting as trading partners pursue their own net zero targets, creating uncertainty about the lifespan and profitability of export-focused projects.⁵

Leaders in industry, unions and government must articulate how affected communities will diversify their economies, protect workers’ livelihoods and manage declining fossil fuel demand without abrupt social dislocation.

Ignoring this question risks abrupt closures, stranded assets and a narrative of abandonment in some of the communities most central to Australia’s energy story.

How will the financial system price climate risk and opportunity.

Banks, insurers and superannuation funds are increasingly recognising climate change as a material financial risk, affecting everything from mortgage lending to portfolio allocation.¹¹

As physical risks rise and global standards on disclosure tighten, Australian institutions must decide how quickly to adjust valuations, underwriting and investment strategies.

For leaders, the question is whether to move early, potentially reshaping housing markets, business models and infrastructure plans, or to move slowly and risk disorderly repricing later.

The path chosen will determine who bears the cost of climate damage, and whether Australia attracts or repels capital in a decarbonising global economy.

Can Australia seize clean industry opportunities without repeating past boom-bust cycles.

The country has world-class solar and wind resources, significant mineral reserves for batteries and clean technologies, and research strengths that could underpin new industries.³

Yet Australia also has a history of resource booms that left some regions exposed when prices fell and value was not widely shared.

Leaders must determine how to balance export ambitions in green hydrogen, critical minerals and low-emissions manufacturing with domestic value-add, workforce development and environmental safeguards.

Without clear answers, there is a risk that new climate-aligned industries could reproduce old patterns of uneven benefits and environmental harm.

Environmental

Which areas of Australia are still defendable, and where will retreat become unavoidable.

Sea-level rise, coastal erosion, riverine flooding and extreme heat are already making some locations more dangerous and expensive to inhabit.¹

At the same time, infrastructure, cultural heritage and emotional ties bind people to these places, complicating any discussion of relocation.

Environmental and planning leaders must ask where investment in protection and adaptation can realistically keep pace with escalating hazards, and where planned retreat may ultimately be the safer option.

Delaying this conversation risks chaotic, inequitable retreat triggered only after repeated disasters and insurance withdrawal.

How will Australia confront accelerating biodiversity loss in a changing climate.

Climate change is amplifying existing pressures on ecosystems, including habitat clearing, invasive species and altered fire regimes, pushing many species closer to collapse.⁴

Extreme heat, drought and more intense fires are altering forests, reefs, wetlands and rangelands, with cascading effects on water, soils and livelihoods.

Leaders in conservation, agriculture and resource management must decide how to prioritise limited funds between protecting intact ecosystems, restoring damaged landscapes and facilitating species’ movement as climatic zones shift.

Choices made now will shape whether future Australians inherit functioning ecosystems or a patchwork of degraded environments.

Can water security be maintained under more variable rainfall and higher evaporation.

Long-term drying trends in parts of southern and western Australia, alongside more intense downpours elsewhere, are putting new strain on rivers, dams and groundwater.¹

Higher temperatures increase evaporation, further reducing available water for towns, agriculture and ecosystems.

Water managers and political leaders must confront how to balance allocations between irrigation, urban use, cultural values and environmental flows in a climate where historical averages are an increasingly unreliable guide.⁴

Failing to adjust could fuel conflict between regions and sectors, and deepen stress on rivers and wetlands already under pressure.

What role will land use change play in Australia’s climate future.

Changes in land management, including deforestation, reforestation, savanna burning and agricultural practices, have significant implications for emissions, carbon storage and biodiversity.¹⁰

Climate change in turn affects productivity, fire risk and pest dynamics on farms and pastoral land.

Leaders in agriculture, forestry, First Nations land management and conservation must decide how to integrate carbon, food security and nature goals in landscapes already under economic and climatic stress.

The outcomes will shape not just national emissions accounts but also the resilience of rural communities and cultural landscapes.

Political and governance

How will a liberal democracy navigate climate decisions that create winners and losers.

As climate impacts and transition measures touch more aspects of daily life, decisions about who pays, who profits and who is protected become more visible and contested.

Australia is already experiencing declining trust in political institutions, amplifying scrutiny of how climate decisions are made and whose voices are heard.⁶

Leaders must decide how to build legitimacy for difficult choices on issues such as fossil fuel approvals, transmission lines, planning rules and disaster funding.

Without transparent, inclusive governance, climate policy risks becoming another front in a broader crisis of trust, slowing action and deepening polarisation.

What does responsible leadership look like for a major fossil fuel exporter.

Australia’s coal and gas exports contribute far more emissions overseas than the country produces domestically, even though these exported emissions do not count in national targets.²

Trading partners’ commitments under the Paris Agreement and net zero pledges are likely to reduce long-term demand for these fuels, challenging Australia’s economic model.⁵

Leaders must grapple with how to align domestic climate ambition with export decisions and international climate diplomacy, under scrutiny from investors, allies and Pacific neighbours.

Answering this question will shape Australia’s reputation as either a climate laggard or a country managing an orderly shift away from high-emissions exports.

Can institutions keep up with the speed and scale of climate risk.

Climate change cuts across portfolios that were not designed to work together, from energy and housing to health, defence and foreign affairs.

Recent years have shown how quickly compounding disasters and supply chain shocks can overwhelm fragmented decision-making structures.⁷

Leaders in parliaments, public services, regulators and local government must decide whether existing institutional arrangements are adequate, or whether deeper reforms to planning, budgeting and accountability are needed.

Without governance that matches the complexity of climate risk, policies may remain piecemeal even as impacts accelerate.

How will Australia define its role in Pacific climate security.

Pacific Island countries consistently describe climate change as their most serious security threat, encompassing sea-level rise, extreme weather and loss of livelihoods.⁵

Australia has signalled support through climate finance, adaptation initiatives and new security and mobility arrangements, but expectations in the region continue to grow.³

Political and defence leaders must clarify how climate risk will be integrated into regional partnerships, humanitarian responses and long-term planning for possible displacement.

The answers will influence regional stability, diplomatic relationships and Australia’s credibility as a partner that listens and responds to Pacific priorities.

Cultural, ethical and intergenerational

How will First Nations knowledge and custodianship shape Australia’s climate response.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have managed Country for tens of thousands of years, using practices that can reduce fire risk, support biodiversity and strengthen cultural connections.¹⁰

Climate change is damaging many of the places, species and cultural sites at the heart of this custodianship.

Leaders across governments, industry and conservation must decide whether First Nations knowledge will be treated as an add-on or as a central framework for land and sea management, adaptation and cultural resilience.

The ethical stakes include recognition of sovereignty, self-determination and the right to maintain living cultures in a rapidly changing climate.

What do current decisions owe to young Australians and future generations.

Children and young people will live with the consequences of today’s emissions, infrastructure and land use decisions for far longer than those making most of the choices.

Many are already experiencing anxiety, anger and grief about climate change, and questioning whether institutions are acting with their interests in mind.⁶

Leaders in politics, education, business and culture must confront how to weigh long-term climate risk against short-term costs and electoral cycles.

This includes grappling with whether existing legal and policy frameworks adequately reflect duties to those who cannot yet vote or have not yet been born.

How will narratives about Australian identity adapt to a climate-changed continent.

Stories about the bush, the beach and the suburban backyard are deeply woven into ideas of what it means to live in Australia.

Yet intensifying heatwaves, coastal erosion, water stress and fire seasons are altering many of these landscapes and the activities they support.¹

Cultural leaders, storytellers, journalists and educators must consider how to reflect these changes honestly while avoiding fatalism, and how to include diverse experiences of climate impact and resilience.

The narratives that take hold will influence public willingness to accept difficult decisions and to imagine different ways of living well on a hotter continent.

How will responsibility and solidarity be understood in a region of unequal climate vulnerability.

Australia’s per capita emissions and historical contribution to climate change are high compared with many of its neighbours, yet the most severe near-term impacts fall on countries with far fewer resources.²

Pacific leaders have been clear that climate justice, loss and damage, and the protection of sovereignty and culture are central to their expectations of larger emitters.⁵

Australians in politics, business, philanthropy and civil society must decide how far solidarity with more vulnerable neighbours should shape domestic debates on emissions, climate finance and mobility.

The ethical framing chosen will influence not only policy but also how Australians understand their place in a warming world.

What the next five years demand

The next five years will test whether Australia can move from reactive climate management to a more anticipatory, whole-of-society approach that matches the scale of the challenge.¹⁰

Regional planners and policymakers will need to integrate climate risk into every major decision about housing, transport, water, energy and land, treating future extremes as central assumptions rather than outliers.¹

They will have to weigh the stability of communities currently tied to high-emissions industries against the opportunities of emerging low-emissions sectors, while managing the distributional impacts on workers and households.²

They will also need to deepen collaboration with First Nations communities and Pacific neighbours, recognising that decisions about land, sea and emissions have cultural and geopolitical consequences well beyond national borders.⁵

Above all, the questions outlined here demand that climate risk be treated not as a single policy issue but as a defining context for how Australia governs its economy, cares for its people and honours its responsibilities to future generations.

References

1. Australia's changing climate - CSIRO
2. Australia's massive global carbon footprint set to continue with fossil fuel exports - Climate Analytics
3. Australian Energy Commodity Production and Trade 2025 - Geoscience Australia
4. The State of the Climate report: what it says for Aussies - Climate Council
5. How to scale up Australia's investment in Pacific climate adaptation - Lowy Institute
6. An opportunity for climate leadership and stronger ties - Lowy Institute
7. The State of Weather and Climate Extremes 2023 - National Council of Resilience
8. State of the Climate - CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
9. APRA publishes guidance on climate-related financial risks

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Australia’s Green Pledge, Brown Reality: Can a Fossil Fuel Superpower Credibly Host COP31? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Australia has enshrined a 43 percent emissions reduction target by 2030 and net zero by 2050 in national law, yet remains a major coal and gas exporter.1 Government lists show more than one hundred new or expanded coal and gas projects under development, locking in decades of additional emissions if built.2 Global scenarios from the International Energy Agency and the Production Gap research find no room for new fossil fuel fields or coal mines in a 1.5 degree world.3 Reforms to Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism still allow significant fossil fuel expansion, with exported emissions far exceeding those regulated domestically.4 Pacific leaders back Australia’s bid to co‑host COP31 but have long pressed Canberra to stop opening new coal and gas projects.5 Analysts warn that continued fossil fuel expansion risks legal challenges, stranded assets and reputational damage to a prospective COP presidency.2

On paper, Australia looks like a climate convert, yet its coal ships still leave port day and night.¹

The country has written a 43 percent emissions reduction target by 2030 and net zero by 2050 into law, signalling a break with a decade of climate wars.¹

Its government has retooled industrial policy, tightened pollution baselines for big emitters and promised to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with Pacific neighbours on the front lines of rising seas.⁴

At the same time, official project lists show a large pipeline of new and expanded coal and gas developments that could keep Australian fossil fuel exports flowing well beyond mid‑century.²

International energy and climate agencies now agree that no new oil, gas or coal fields are compatible with limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the safer end of the Paris Agreement goals.³

Into this tension steps Australia’s bid, backed by Pacific leaders, to co‑host the United Nations climate summit COP31 in partnership with Türkiye later this decade.⁵

The question is whether a fossil fuel superpower still approving new projects can credibly claim climate leadership while presiding over the world’s premier climate negotiations.²

Climate Leader, Fossil Giant

Australia’s Climate Change Act 2022 for the first time locks in a national target to cut net greenhouse gas emissions 43 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050.¹

The law aligns Canberra with peers like the European Union and the United States that have legislated or formally adopted long‑term decarbonisation goals, after years in which Australia was cast internationally as a laggard.¹

Domestically, the government has overhauled the Safeguard Mechanism, a policy that sets emissions baselines for around 200 of the country’s largest industrial polluters, including coal mines, gas fields, aluminium smelters and cement plants.⁴

Under the reformed scheme, these facilities must cut or offset emissions in line with a declining cap intended to help deliver the national 2030 target, with flexibility through carbon credits but sharper penalties for non‑compliance.⁴

Yet Australia remains one of the world’s largest exporters of thermal and metallurgical coal as well as liquefied natural gas, meaning that most emissions linked to its fossil fuel production occur overseas when the fuels are burned.²

Those “Scope 3” emissions are many times larger than the pollution counted in Australia’s domestic inventory and are not regulated by any Australian climate law, even as they contribute to the same rising global temperature.⁴

A Pipeline Of New Projects

Federal government Resources and Energy Major Projects lists show a crowded pipeline of fossil fuel developments, including dozens of coal mines and gas fields at various stages of planning, approval and construction.²

Analysis by independent researchers of recent lists identified more than one hundred new or expanded coal and gas projects expected to begin production before 2030 if they proceed, representing a significant expansion of capacity rather than a simple replacement of declining fields.²

These projects span almost every producing basin, from thermal coal extensions in New South Wales and Queensland to offshore gas developments off Western Australia and the Northern Territory, many geared towards export markets in Asia.²

Campaigners note that approvals granted in recent years include long‑life mine extensions and gas fields with planned operating horizons stretching into the 2040s and 2050s, well beyond the date by which global emissions must reach net zero to meet Paris goals.²

Australia’s environment minister continues to assess new coal and gas proposals under national environmental law, and while some high‑profile projects have been refused or withdrawn, others have advanced with conditions attached.²

The result is a policy paradox in which the same government that legislated emissions targets also oversees a major expansion queue for fossil fuels, prompting criticism from climate analysts and Pacific partners who see a widening gap between rhetoric and reality.⁴

What The Science Says About Expansion

In 2021 the International Energy Agency, the Paris‑based body that advises governments on energy policy, released its first Net Zero by 2050 roadmap and concluded there was no need for new oil and gas fields or new coal mines and mine extensions beyond projects already approved at that time.³

That scenario has become a reference point for climate diplomacy because it outlines a pathway to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius without heavy reliance on speculative technologies, instead emphasising rapid declines in fossil fuel demand and steep growth in renewables.³

A subsequent update to the IEA net zero roadmap reinforced this message, projecting that fossil gas production and use would need to fall sharply on average each year through mid‑century, with coal declining even faster, leaving little room for investment in long‑lived new projects.⁷

The agency also pared back its expectations for carbon capture and storage, a technology often cited by industry as a way to prolong fossil fuel use, noting that deployment has repeatedly fallen short of plans and warning that over‑reliance would be risky and expensive.⁷

The Production Gap report, a recurring assessment led by the United Nations Environment Programme and research institutes, finds that governments globally are planning to produce far more coal, oil and gas in coming decades than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.⁸

Researchers estimate that existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure already imply carbon dioxide emissions that exceed the budget for a 50 percent chance of meeting the 1.5 degree goal, implying that no new coal mines or oil and gas fields can be developed unless offset by early retirement of existing assets.⁸

Australia’s COP31 Ambition

Australia has sought to recast itself as a constructive player in international climate diplomacy, throwing its weight behind a joint bid with Pacific island countries to host a “Pacific COP31” and securing agreement that Türkiye will hold the formal presidency while Canberra leads negotiations with partners.⁵

Pacific leaders have welcomed the chance to bring global attention to the region’s climate vulnerabilities and to secure stronger commitments on issues like climate finance and loss and damage, while also reiterating their longstanding calls for an end to new coal and gas projects worldwide.⁵

Hosting a COP is about more than logistics, because the incoming presidency is expected to drive ambition, broker compromises and shepherd collective decisions that shape global energy investment for years to come.⁹

Diplomats and analysts note that countries taking on this role face heightened scrutiny of their domestic policies, with perceived inconsistencies between climate rhetoric and fossil fuel expansion plans quickly seized upon by both vulnerable nations and civil society groups.⁹

Australia’s bid emphasises partnership with Pacific states, including a dedicated pre‑COP meeting in the region and a focus on mobilising finance for resilient development, in part to answer criticism that it has historically prioritised fossil fuel exports over climate solidarity.⁵

Whether that narrative holds will depend heavily on what happens to the domestic fossil fuel project pipeline in the years before the summit, and whether Canberra can show that its legislated emissions targets are matched by decisions to constrain supply as well as demand.²

What Must Change In The Next Five Years

Climate policy analysts argue that for Australia to credibly present itself as a climate leader and prospective COP31 convener, it would need to adopt a clear framework to phase down fossil fuel production in line with scientific advice from bodies such as the IEA and the Production Gap research.³

That would mean ruling out new coal mines, mine extensions and greenfield oil and gas fields that are inconsistent with a 1.5 degree pathway, and instead prioritising investment in renewable energy, storage, electrification and demand‑side efficiency.⁸

Reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism could be strengthened by placing tighter limits on the use of offsets, requiring more on‑site emissions cuts and broadening coverage to better reflect the full climate impact of export‑oriented fossil fuel projects.⁴

Independent modelling has warned that an unchecked wave of new fossil fuel developments risks overwhelming the scheme’s declining cap, potentially “blowing” the policy’s effective carbon budget and making the 2030 target much harder to meet.⁴

Regional planners and infrastructure agencies face parallel choices about where to direct billions of dollars in transport links, ports and transmission lines, decisions that can either lock communities deeper into fossil fuel‑dependent economies or enable diversification into cleaner industries.⁸

Experts in transition planning caution that over‑building fossil fuel capacity in the 2020s risks creating stranded assets, sudden job losses and fiscal stress for regions if global demand falls faster than companies expect, especially as major trading partners accelerate their own climate policies.³

Legal scholars note that governments and project proponents already face rising litigation risk, ranging from challenges to environmental approvals to investor actions over climate‑related disclosure, as courts increasingly weigh climate science and international commitments when assessing new fossil fuel developments.⁹

A more precautionary approach to approving long‑lived coal and gas projects, combined with robust transition support for affected workers and communities, is seen as a way to reduce the likelihood of costly disputes and abrupt policy reversals.⁹

Over the next five years, analysts say, the tasks for policymakers are clear: set explicit, time‑bound limits on new fossil fuel extraction, align industrial and infrastructure planning with those limits, and expand support for clean industries and regional transition packages to manage change fairly and predictably.³

For regional planners, that means prioritising projects that build renewable energy zones, grid upgrades, low‑carbon manufacturing and climate‑resilient infrastructure rather than new export coal terminals or gas pipelines whose economic lifetimes may be cut short by global decarbonisation.⁸

Such steps would not just lower long‑term climate risk, they would also reduce the legal and economic exposure associated with stranded fossil fuel assets and strengthen Australia’s claim to climate leadership if and when it takes up the COP31 gavel.⁹

References

1. Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) s 10
2. New fossil fuel projects on the Australian Government’s Resources and Energy Major Projects list and their climate impact
3. Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
4. New and expanded fossil fuels risk blowing the Safeguard Mechanism carbon budget
5. Australia unites with Pacific leaders on regional priorities
6. 2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing down or phasing up?
7. IEA’s 2023 Net Zero Roadmap reinforces urgent need for a fossil fuel phase-out
8. The Production Gap
9. Conference of the Parties (COP)

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Climate Change Drives Australia's Escalating Extremes of Heat, Fire and Flooding - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Australia recorded its fourth-warmest year in 2025 at 1.23°C above the 1961–1990 average1 Climate change has driven a significant increase in Australian forest fires over the past 30 years2 January 2026 heatwave reached inland NSW temperatures in the mid-40s3 Intensity of short-duration extreme rainfall has increased by around 10% or more in recent decades4 Northern Queensland recorded over 1,350 mm rainfall in two weeks during late December 2025 and early January 20265 Sea levels around Australia have risen approximately 22 cm since 19006

Australia is experiencing an escalating cascade of climate-driven extremes as 2026 begins, with the nation's fourth-warmest year on record in 2025 setting the stage for dangerous heatwaves, destructive fires and devastating floods.

The convergence of record temperatures, intensifying fire weather and extreme rainfall events across the continent reflects the fingerprints of human-induced climate change, as documented by official meteorological data and peer-reviewed scientific research.

In January 2026, a severe heatwave is gripping southern and eastern Australia, with inland New South Wales experiencing temperatures in the mid-40s, whilst December 2025 saw destructive fires claim lives and homes across NSW and Tasmania.

Northern Queensland has simultaneously endured catastrophic flooding, with some locations recording more than 1,350 millimetres of rainfall in just two weeks during late December 2025 and early January 2026.

These events are occurring against a backdrop of long-term warming, with Australia's climate having warmed by 1.51°C since 1910, and the intensity of short-duration extreme rainfall increasing by at least 10 per cent in recent decades.

Scientific attribution studies have established that climate change has more than doubled the frequency of forest fires, extended fire seasons and intensified dangerous fire weather across southern Australia.

Rising sea levels, which have increased by approximately 22 centimetres around Australia since 1900, are compounding coastal and estuarine flooding risks during extreme rainfall events.

Heatwaves and Record Temperatures

Australia recorded its fourth-warmest year in 2025, with the national annual average temperature reaching 1.23°C above the 1961–1990 average, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.¹

The national average maximum temperature was 1.48°C above the 1961–1990 average, equal fourth-warmest on record, whilst the average minimum temperature was 0.97°C above average, eighth-warmest on record.¹

Every month in 2025 recorded above-average temperatures, with January, February, March and October ranking within the top five warmest for their respective months.¹

Between January and March, and again between October and December 2025, large parts of Australia experienced heatwave conditions reaching extreme severity at times.⁷

South Australia and Western Australia both recorded their third-warmest years in 2025.⁷

The long-term trend is unequivocal: Australia's climate has warmed by an average of 1.51°C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950.⁸

Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades, and eight of the nine warmest years on record have occurred since 2013.⁸

This warming trend has led to a marked increase in extreme heat events, with very high monthly maximum temperatures that occurred just 2 per cent of the time in 1960–1989 now occurring around 12 per cent of the time.⁹

Australia's oceans have also warmed significantly, with sea surface temperatures increasing by 1.08°C on average since 1900.¹⁰

In early January 2026, Australia is experiencing one of the most significant heatwaves in recent years, described by senior meteorologists as the worst burst of heat for south-eastern Australia since the summer of 2019–2020.³

Severe heatwave warnings have been issued for parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.³

Inland areas of NSW are experiencing temperatures in the mid-40s, with some locations such as parts of northern Victoria, south-western NSW and eastern South Australia reaching temperatures up towards 46°C or even 47°C.¹¹

Adelaide reached 42°C, Melbourne reached 42°C, and Sydney is forecast to reach 39–40°C, with western suburbs heading into the low-to-mid 40s.³

Minimum temperatures are also staying high, with some areas sitting 6 to 12 degrees above the usual January overnight lows, making it harder for homes and people to cool down before the next day starts.¹¹

The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that extreme heatwaves can be dangerous for everyone, with severe heatwaves particularly dangerous for older people, babies, children, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with medical conditions and people who are unwell.¹²

Wildfires and Fire Weather

Human-driven climate change has driven a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of Australian forest fires over the past three decades, with climate identified as the overwhelming factor driving fire activity, according to research published by CSIRO and collaborators in Nature Communications.²

The study, combining 32 years of satellite data and 90 years of ground-based datasets, found that the mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, whilst the frequency of forest megafire years has markedly increased since 2000.²

Over the last 90 years, three of the four megafire years have occurred after 2000.²

The main driver for the growing areas burnt by fire is Australia's increasingly severe fire weather, accounting for 75 per cent of the variation observed in the total annual area of forest fires.¹³

Fire weather conditions have become increasingly more dangerous, with increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning.²

The frequency and intensity of heatwaves has increased in recent years, and climate projections suggest heatwaves will continue to become more frequent and intense, extending the period of time favourable for continuous fire spread into the evening and overnight.¹⁴

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report states that the frequency of extreme fire weather days has increased, and the fire season has become longer since 1950 at many locations, with the intensity, frequency and duration of fire weather events projected to increase throughout Australia.¹⁴

In December 2025, dozens of bushfires raged across New South Wales and Tasmania, with a NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service firefighter tragically losing his life, 16 homes destroyed in the NSW town of Koolewong, four in Bulahdelah, and 19 destroyed in Tasmania's Dolphin Sands.¹⁵

Temperatures reached 41°C in Koolewong, with strong winds fanning the fires and making them hard to suppress.¹⁵

The speed and intensity of these fires took many by surprise, with dead fuel moisture content falling to critically dry levels below 7 per cent in both Koolewong and Bulahdelah on 6 December.¹⁵

Since the 2019–2020 Black Summer megafires, Australia has experienced multiple wet years, with vegetation regrowing strongly, but recent months of below-average rainfall have dried out many landscapes, resulting in dry fuels ready to burn.¹⁵

Recovery of fuel loads, combined with below-average rainfall in eastern NSW projected to continue throughout December, indicated that more fires could eventuate during the 2025–2026 season.¹⁶

During the January 2026 heatwave, fire danger ratings are sitting in the high to extreme range across southern Australia, with the combination of very hot air, low humidity and stronger winds creating conditions where bushfires can spread extremely quickly and be very difficult or impossible to control and contain.³

A recent report from former Australian fire chiefs and the Climate Council has warned that at least 6.9 million Australians living on the expanding fringes of capital cities could be at risk from urban fires supercharged by climate pollution.¹⁷

Floods and Rainfall Intensity

Despite Australia's natural climate variability, observations show an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events, with the intensity of short-duration extreme rainfall events having increased by around 10 per cent or more in some regions in recent decades, with the largest increases typically observed in the north of the country.⁴

Daily rainfall totals associated with thunderstorms have increased since 1979, particularly in northern Australia, primarily due to an increase in the intensity of rainfall per storm.¹⁸

Climate model simulations project that heavy rainfall events will further intensify during the 21st century, with the rate of intensification proportional to the rate of global warming.⁴

The intensification of heavy rainfall is attributed to warmer air being able to hold more water vapour, with moisture in the atmosphere increasing by 7 per cent per degree of warming, causing an increased likelihood of heavy rainfall events even in areas where average rainfall is likely to decrease.¹⁸

In late December 2025 and early January 2026, northern Queensland experienced catastrophic flooding as deep tropical moisture interacted with a monsoon low and an embedded trough over western Queensland, whilst enhanced onshore winds along the north-eastern coast delivered heavy to intense rainfall and thunderstorms.⁵

The highest fortnightly total was 1,353.8 millimetres at Cowley Beach (Defence) in Queensland, with most of this rainfall occurring in the week ending 5 January 2026.⁵

The highest daily total was 414.0 millimetres at Innisfail Wharf Alert in Queensland in the 24 hours to 9 am on 31 December 2025.⁵

Weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 400 millimetres were recorded in large parts of northern Queensland, with more than 500 millimetres falling along the north-eastern Queensland coast.¹⁹

Towns such as Bingil Bay recorded around 1.1 metres of rain in a four-day span, and Innisfail saw daily rainfall totals exceeding 400 millimetres, the highest since 1999.²⁰

Widespread flooding triggered mass evacuation orders in Queensland's coastal regions, with major flood warnings issued for the Flinders, Cloncurry, Mulgrave, Georgina, Norman and Diamantina rivers.²⁰

At least one person was confirmed dead as a result of the extreme weather, with emergency services responding to dozens of calls for assistance across flood-affected areas.²⁰

The monsoon trough was situated over northern Australia for the first part of the fortnight ending 5 January 2026, with the northern Australian monsoon onset, as measured at Darwin, occurring on 23 December 2025.⁵

Queensland's national average annual rainfall in 2025 was 31 per cent above average, the wettest year since 2011, contributing to above-average soil moisture and elevated water storage levels in northern regions.⁷

Whilst natural climate variability plays a significant role in Australian rainfall patterns, with influences from La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole, the observed increase in heavy rainfall intensity is consistent with climate change projections and the fundamental physics of a warming atmosphere.⁴

Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

Sea levels around Australia have risen approximately 22 centimetres since 1900, with half of this rise occurring since 1970.⁶

This rise is primarily attributed to thermal expansion of warming ocean waters and the melting of land-based ice from glaciers and ice sheets.⁶

Around the Australian coastline, sea level has risen relative to the land throughout the 20th century, with a faster rate since 1993, partly as a result of natural climate variability.²¹

Rates of sea-level rise since 1993 have been above the global average around many parts of the Australian coastline, particularly in the north and south-east.²²

Rising sea levels are worsening coastal and estuarine flooding during extreme rainfall events and storm surges, with the combination of high water levels, storm surges and waves causing significant coastal erosion and inundation.²³

For the east and west coasts of Australia, extreme sea levels of a particular height are now exceeded three times more often in the second half of the 20th century compared to the first half.²¹

This effect will continue with more than a ten-fold increase in the frequency of extreme sea levels by 2100 at many locations and a much increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion, even for a low emissions pathway.²¹

Torres Strait Islander and coastal Indigenous communities are already feeling the impacts of sea-level rise, with several inundation events occurring on low-lying islands since 2005, threatening inhabited areas, graves and other significant cultural sites.²²

Sea-level rise poses major threats to mangroves and coastal ecosystems, valuable infrastructure and development in coastal regions, with substantial economic implications for coastal communities.²²

Scientific Attribution and Future Outlook

The convergence of heatwaves, fires and floods in Australia during 2025 and early 2026 reflects the established scientific understanding that climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events.

Attribution studies have found that human-caused climate change made south-eastern Australia's devastating wildfires during 2019–2020 at least 30 per cent more likely to occur, with the extremity of the associated heatwave about 10 times more likely now than in 1900.²⁴

Under most climate change scenarios, fire weather is predicted to keep worsening, with the frequency of forest megafires likely to continue under future projected climate change.¹³

The warming in Australia is consistent with global trends, with the degree of warming similar to the overall average across the world's land areas, and all changes are consistent with predictions from climate change scenarios that severe fire weather conditions will intensify due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions.¹³

For heavy rainfall, whilst interannual variability in Australia is high and linked to major climate influences, climate model simulations consistently project that heavy rainfall events will further intensify during the 21st century proportional to the rate of global warming.⁴

Sea-level rise will continue for decades even with deep cuts to emissions, with 21st century sea-level rise for Australia likely to be close to the global average rise.²¹

Conclusion and Policy Implications

The escalating extremes documented across Australia in 2025 and early 2026 underscore the urgency of comprehensive climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Regional planners and policymakers must act decisively within the next five years to reduce long-term risk by implementing several critical measures.

First, hazard-reduction burning programmes and Indigenous cultural burning practices must be significantly expanded and integrated as core strategy, particularly in areas with high fuel loads and vulnerable communities, whilst ensuring adequate resources and personnel for emergency services.

Second, building codes in fire-prone areas must be strengthened and enforced to ensure bushfire-resistant construction, with particular attention to homes in peri-urban interfaces where forests make up more than 60 per cent of surrounding neighbourhoods.

Third, flood-resilient infrastructure and early warning systems require substantial investment, particularly in northern Queensland and other regions experiencing intensifying rainfall, with clear communication of forecast impacts to enable communities to prepare effectively.

Fourth, coastal management strategies must account for accelerating sea-level rise and increased storm surge frequency, including managed retreat from the most vulnerable low-lying areas and protection of critical infrastructure.

Fifth, urban planning must address the growing risks from extreme heat, including cooling centres, green infrastructure and water-sensitive urban design to reduce urban heat island effects.

Finally, emissions reduction remains paramount, as every increment of additional warming amplifies the frequency and severity of all these extremes, making adaptation progressively more difficult and costly.

For authoritative data and regional forecasts, policymakers and communities should consult the Bureau of Meteorology's climate monitoring services and the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate 2024 report, which provides comprehensive analysis of Australia's changing climate and projected future trends.

References

1. Bureau of Meteorology – Annual Statement 2025
2. Nature Communications – Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change
3. AAP News – Worst since Black Summer: heatwave, bushfire threat
4. CSIRO – Australia's changing climate
5. Bureau of Meteorology – Tropical Climate Update archive
6. CSIRO – State of the Climate 2024
7. Bureau of Meteorology – Bureau releases summary of Australia's climate in 2025
8. Bureau of Meteorology – State of the Climate 2024: Australia's changing climate
9. AdaptNSW – Australian climate change observations
10. CSIRO – State of the Climate 2024: Australia is enduring harsher fire seasons
11. Pedestrian TV – Most Significant In Years: How This Week's Heatwave Is Roasting Half The Country
12. Bureau of Meteorology – Heatwave warning
13. CSIRO – Australia's Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it
14. International Journal of Wildland Fire – Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate
15. PreventionWeb – Primed to burn: what's behind the intense, sudden fires burning across New South Wales and Tasmania
16. Scimex – Expert Reaction: Bushfires burning across NSW and Tasmania
17. Climate Council – Experts Sound Alarm for Australia on Urban Fire Risk like LA
18. Bureau of Meteorology – State of the Climate 2024: Heavy rainfall events
19. Bureau of Meteorology – Australian rainfall update
20. World Socialist Web Site – Australia: At least 1 dead as heavy rain and floods hit northern Queensland
21. Australian Academy of Science – How are sea levels changing?
22. Australian State of the Environment – Sea level rise in Australia
23. UNSW Newsroom – How rising sea levels will affect our coastal cities and towns
24. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences – Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

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