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| NSW coal-fired power plants are major sources of emissions. Photo: Rob Homer |
The report was prepared by the Office of Environment as NSW's submission to a Federal Government inquiry into what Australia's post-2020 carbon cutting target should be. It did not make it past Premier Mike Baird's office but was obtained by Fairfax Media under freedom of information laws.
While not proposing a specific target for greenhouse gas reduction, the submission recommends Australia take into account those of major trading partners and prepare a minimum goal that could be increased if others also make deeper cuts. It cited as an example the Climate Change Authority's recommended 40-60 per cent reduction range on 2000 levels by 2030.
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| Infigen's Capital Wind Farm near Bungendore, New South Wales. The state will lose economic opportunities if the new energy economy isn't embraced, says Greens climate spokesman Jeremy Buckingham. Photo: Bloomberg |
It also suggested the continued use of 2000 as the base year as it would be more "transparent" and "easier to communicate to the Australian community". That proposal is in contrast to the Abbott and now Turnbull government's approach, which has been to shift the base year for its 2030 goal to 2005.
The federal government's pledge that it will take to the Paris climate summit next month is for Australia to aim to reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, a target that converts to about 19 per cent when compared with 2000 levels.
The US is aiming for a 28 per cent cut on 2005's carbon pollution but would seek to reach that goal five years earlier than Australia, the submission notes.
"If Australia sets an emissions reduction target that is low in ambition while others set targets that are higher in ambition, there is a risk that [Australia's] fossil fuel reserves may become 'stranded assets' and the value of these assets may devalue," the report said.
Without "significant reductions" in global emissions, NSW alone would face a range of extreme weather, including maximum temperatures rising 3 degrees or more between now and 2070, it said.
Severe fire weather in spring would also increase bushfire risk and reduce the opportunity for hazard reduction burning, while fewer cold nights would hurt natural ecosystems, snow tourism and some agriculture.
South-eastern Australia has experienced a record-breaking heat wave to start October that helped fan a bushfire near Melbourne that had been lit to reduce fuel ahead of what is expected to be a difficult and long fire season.
A spokesman for Mr Baird declined to say why his government did not submit the submission to its federal counterparts.
"The submission was broadly in line with NSW Government thinking, but the emissions reduction target was a federal matter and the state's role was instead to implement strategies for adaptation and complementary strategies like energy efficiency and attracting renewable energy investment," a spokesman for Environment Minister Mark Speakman said, noting most other states did not make submissions.
Penny Sharpe, Labor's spokeswoman for Planning, Environment & Heritage, said a failure to act on climate change would hit the state economically, environmentally and socially.
"It beggars belief that the NSW Government as guardians of Australia's most populous state with the highest per capita carbon emissions would ignore the advice of its own agencies and choose not to make a submission to the Commonwealth," Ms Sharpe said.
"This head-in-the-sand approach from the Baird Government is risky and irresponsible," she said.
NSW Greens climate spokesperson Jeremy Buckingham said it was an "abysmal" decision to block the report.
"The report simply recognises the reality in a carbon-constrained world, fossil fuels are stranded assets and that NSW will lose economic opportunities if we do not embrace the new energy economy", he said.
"Premier Baird has a choice to make – either run with the dinosaurs trying to block out the significant political and technological changes occurring, or embrace the future and make NSW the booming renewable energy economy."
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