The Turnbull Of Old

The Conversation - Mike Sandiford

For the Turnbull of old, could a picture be worth a thousand words?

"Climate change is the ultimate long-term problem. We have to make decisions today, bear costs today so that adverse consequences are avoided, dangerous consequences, many decades into the future." Malcolm Turnbull, February 9th, 2010

Plainly stated, Mr Turnbull … and in reality not that many decades.

But not that many decades. NASA's GISTEMP global temperature anomaly for the last 40 years, with projection for the next 40 years. The anomaly is measured by month as a departure from the 1951-1980 average. The current trajectory means that within the next 40 years we are set to experience El Nino events with anomalies in excess of +2°C considered in the dangerous realm. Colours map Australian federal election outcomes. Data sourced from NASA.

"Plainly stated: in the absence of a clear carbon price signal either no investments will be made or investments will be made of new carbon-intensive infrastructure because they are more profitable in a world where there is no price on carbon." Malcolm Turnbull

Plainly stated, Mr Turnbull … and indeed nothing much has happened.

Nothing much has happened. Two images, each showing how electricity dispatch maps between fuel types and regions on Australia's National Energy Market for the month of April in 2011, on the left, and April 2016, on the right. Despite a modest increase in wind, and a very modest amount of new solar, the two images illustrate just how little change there has been in the proportion of Carbon intensive dispatch on our grid over the last 5 years. Units are in megawatts, colours are by fuel type. Data sourced from AEMO.

… "But it is not enough to say you support these cuts, you must also deliver a strong, credible policy framework that will deliver them." Malcolm Turnbull

Plainly stated, Mr Turnbull … and yes price signals do work.

Yes, price signals work. Emissions in million tonnes of CO2e by financial year, for electrical power dispatch onto the Victorian grid. Of the many stories this image tells, the most important one is how adept markets are at responding to price signals and the policy settings that surround them. In Victoria, the carbon tax price signal was accompanied by a ~10% decline in electricity sector emissions. Data sourced from AEMO.

Links

• Sea-level rise has claimed five whole islands in the Pacific: first scientific evidence
• Queensland moves to control land clearing: other states need to follow
• Labor unveils phased emissions trading scheme
• New climate science centre doesn’t make up for CSIRO cuts: experts
• Delaying shutting power stations will bring big disruption later: Climate Institute research