Cutting carbon emissions in line with the Paris climate goals could generate more than 1 million extra jobs by 2040 as Australia transforms its energy and other sectors provided policy settings are right, a new study has found.
The Jobs in a Clean Energy Future report, using modelling by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, found the policies needed to reduce 2005 levels of carbon pollution by 80 per cent by 2040 would generate far more jobs than were lost.
The study, funded by the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Australian Council of Trade Unions, estimated the cost across the economy would be $20 billion annually for 20 years. That sum, though, included investments that would have to be spent anyway to replace aging coal-fired power plants.
The "strong action" path would see the current renewable energy target of supplying 33 terawatt-hours (TWh) of clean power by 2020 raised to 120 TWh by 2040. A carbon price rising to the equivalent to $US44 ($58) per tonne by 2040 is also assumed.The result would still see net employment rise by 442,400 jobs by 2030 and 1.057 millon a decade later.
Leading growth areas include the electricity, gas and water sector — adding 171,900 jobs by 2040 — and construction 190,000 jobs. (See chart below.)
The "medium action" scenario would involve a carbon dioxide abatement budget of $10 billion a year funded by "a modest carbon price". Emissions by 2040 would be 63 per cent below 2005 levels under this plan.
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| Victoria's Hazelwood power station may close by next year - but what will fill the gap? Photo: Jason South |
ACF chief executive Kelly O'Shanassy, said falling technology costs particularly for batteries would spur the change, as would Australia's international commitment to curb emissions and keep global warming to between 1.5-2 degrees above pre-industrial levels agreed last December in Paris.
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| Renewable energy's share of the power sector is expected to continue to rise. Photo: Bloomberg |
"By signing the Paris agreement, we actually have to get pollution out of our economy by mid-century, or earlier, and as this report is showing, that will create jobs."
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| The expected surge in electric cars will create new jobs. Photo: Tore Meek, via AP |
The IEA also lifted its clean energy growth forecast for the period by 13 per cent, noting that the world in 2015 added solar panels at the rate of half a million per day. China alone built a new wind turbine every half hour.
Blackout lesson
The recent blackout in South Australia, in which both wind farms and gas-fired power plants failed to respond as expected to transmission faults, showed the potential risks if governments don't take the lead.
'It's either a future that can be quite positive and prosperous, if we plan for it," Ms O'Shanassy said. "Or a future that's very chaotic, if we let it plan us."
As Fairfax Media reported last month, Victoria's Hazelwood brown coal-fired power station could close by early next year, triggering large local job losses and higher electricity prices in the short term at least.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has cautioned states such as Victoria setting ambitious renewable energy targets before 2020 when the current targets ends.
On Tuesday, he also backed coal's future, telling ABC radio in Brisbane: "[C]oal is going to be an important part of our energy mix, there's no question about that for many, many, many decades to come, on any view."
Louisa de Vries, whose electric bus project was featured in the ACF/ACTU future jobs report, said clean energy jobs offered opportunities to industries such as car making that were facing demise in Australia.
The project, based at Swinburne University of Technology, is helping Gold Coast-based Bustech start building fully electric buses by the middle of next year.
"It's important for our auto parts suppliers — a number of which are hanging in there," said Ms de Vries, a research engineer who worked for 18 years in the auto industry, including Holden. "If they can diversify, they can have a long-term future in Australia."
Ms de Vries said nations such as Norway were offering aid to speed the take-up of electric vehicles, and Australia provided little if any support.
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