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| Emissions of greenhouse gases are falling in the two biggest polluting economies, China and the US. Photo: Jim Cole |
CO2 emissions from the two sources last year were steady at about 9.9 gigatonnes, slowing from a pace that had reached as much as 3 per cent a year during the past decade, according to the Global Carbon Project.
"It's really remarkable," said Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project at the CSIRO. "We're moving from an era of super-fast growth in emissions that we saw in the 2000s."
The recent plateau in fossil fuel-related emissions, though, wasn't enough to prevent an acceleration of atmospheric levels of CO2 last year. And while the pause is welcomed, its longevity may be shortlived as pollution from nations such as India increases.
Still, on the positive front, emissions from energy and industry fell in both China and the US - the world's two biggest polluters - even with expanding economies. Both nations placed curbs on coal-fired power and boosted renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power.
The news on emissions - which excludes other sources such as land-clearing - will cheer negotiators meeting in Morocco this week to build on commitments made in the Paris climate agreement signed last December.
Also revealed on Monday, however, was the less promising news that 2016 will "very likely" be declared the hottest year on record.
Global temperatures for the first nine months of the year are running at about 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial level, closing in on the 1.5-2 degrees warming target agreed to in Paris, the World Meteorological Organization said in a separate report.
So why are temperatures still rising?
Driving the rise in temperatures is the increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Those levels are continuing to rise even as emissions from energy and industry have flat-lined for three years.
The CO2 increase was about 3 parts per million last year - the highest since records began - and 2016 is likely to be at least as fast, CSIRO researchers said last month.
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| Sunset for Hazelwood, Australia's dirties power station, will come next March. Photo: Matt Davidson |
During El Nino years, wind patterns shift in the Pacific, reducing rainfall in regions such as Indonesia and Australia.
Not only is there less take-up of CO2 by plants during such years because of the hotter and drier conditions, but forest fires can be larger.
The Indonesian fires alone were estimated to releasing about 16 million tonnes of CO2 emissions each day in October 2015 - or more than the entire US economy, while they lasted the World Bank estimates.
A switch away from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific should slow the rise of CO2 concentrations from natural sources in the next year to so. Still, it may not be long before human contributions again pick up, researchers said.
Economics v politics
Still, signs that Chinese and American emissions from fossil fuels are dropping will give some heart to those worried that a Trump presidency in the US will unwind efforts to curb such pollution and also prompt other nations to reduce their ambition.
Donald Trump has said he would "cancel" America's support for the Paris deal and encourage more coal, gas and oil production.
US emissions fell 2.5 per cent in 2015 and are forecast to drop another 1.7 per cent this year.
Dr Canadell said the President-elect's pledge to revive the coal industry would likely run up against lower-cost gas supplies, while renewable energy costs continue to decline.
"Even if you take the foot off the climate policy pedal, you won't change the trend because it's being driven by economics," he said.
The tale of China is also one of sinking emissions - down 0.7 per cent in 2015 and likely to drop another 0.5 per cent this year - although the drivers are less clear.
"It is hard to say whether the Chinese slowdown is due to a successful and smooth restructuring of the Chinese economy or a sign of economic instability," said Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo and a co-author of the study.
"Nevertheless, the unexpected reductions in Chinese emissions give hope that the world's biggest emitter can deliver much more ambitious emission reductions".
If Chinese emissions stabilise, global growth may return as additional pollution in developing countries such as India exceeds cuts in the US, European Union and elsewhere, Dr Peters said.
"In fact, the emission pledges in the Paris Agreement lead to growth in global emissions of up to 1 per cent per year until 2030," he said.
India's emissions from fuel use and industry rose more than 5 per cent last year, and are likely to continue to increase as India looks to double domestic coal production by 2020, the Global Carbon Project said. (See chart below of major nations' emissions.)
The Turnbull government has pledged to cut Australia's 2005-level emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030, and last week ratified the Paris accord.
Record heat
The latest report by the World Meteorological Organization said the record global warmth so far in 2016 included India and Russia reporting their hottest January-September periods.
Boosted by the El Nino, the rate of increases in global sea-levels has surged, rising 15 millimetres during the November 2014-February 2016 period.
While sea-levels are "remained fairly stable" since February as the El Nino in the Pacific faded, the recent increase was a marked acceleration from the post-1993 trend of 3 to 3.5mm per year, the WMO said.
The extent of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice is also currently running at record low levels for this time of year, researchers say.
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