Lethal Heating: 02/06/16

06/02/2016

'Misleading, Inaccurate And In Breach Of Paris': CSIRO Scientist Criticises Cuts

Fairfax

Australia will break a commitment made at the Paris climate summit less than two months ago if CSIRO goes ahead with its plan to axe its research programs, one of the agency's leading scientists has warned.

One of the world's three major atmospheric greenhouse gas recording stations at Cape Grim.

John Church, a globally recognised expert on sea level rise and one of CSIRO's most decorated researchers, said organisation chief Larry Marshall had misled the public by claiming there was now less need for climate research because the problem had been "proven".
It came as US scientist James Hansen, sometimes described as the father of climate change awareness, suggested the decision to cut the jobs was wrong. Dr Marshall announced via email on Thursday that 350 jobs would go over two years as the organisation moved away from observing and modelling climate change to working on solutions to the problem.

Senior CSIRO scientist John Church: cuts will make it difficult for Australia to uphold its part of the Paris deal. Photo: Matthew Newton

Details of the cuts have not been finalised, but it is understood one of the world's three major atmospheric greenhouse gas recording stations at Cape Grim, in Tasmania's north-west, is under threat. It is the only station of its type in the southern hemisphere.
The future of programs run by the $120 million RV Investigator research ship, launched amid fanfare in late 2014, are among those that are unclear.
CSIRO staff were forthright in their unhappiness at the cuts at briefings at midday on Friday, describing it as a flawed strategy.
About 100 jobs are planned to go from units dedicated to research in areas including greenhouse gas levels, sea level rise, ocean temperatures, ocean acidification and assessing what is required to keep global warming to two degrees. The jobs would be replaced by new positions in other areas.
Dr Church, who has worked at CSIRO since 1978 and expects to lose his job, said the cuts would make it difficult for Australia to uphold its part of the Paris deal, which agreed there should be greater investment in climate research, including improved observations and early warning systems.
He said the work of CSIRO was considered particularly important because of Australia's role as the major developed country in the southern hemisphere, with a focus on Antarctica and the Pacific.
"There is need for climate science – there are clauses in the Paris agreement that say that. There is a clear need for ongoing sustained and enhanced observations. The science community is actually struggling to address these issues already and so further cuts mean it will be very difficult."
"That's at variance with what the chief executive has been saying, that climate science is done. That's clearly not the case – it's inaccurate, misleading information."
He said there was a need to "reinvigorate and refocus" climate research. If CSIRO was to abandon it, this may have to be through a new body.
"There's been talk for decades of a climate change research institute - maybe now is the time for an institute in which the principal body would be the Bureau of Meteorology, with support from universities."
Dozens of scientists issued statements in response to Dr Marshall's announcement. Many were incensed by the former venture capitalist's suggestion that climate change science was a narrow field that had been "proven" to be a problem, and therefore no longer needed to be a focus.
Dr Church said it was true climate change was proven, but more detail was needed if the world was going to adapt.
"To talk about it being a narrow science is completely inaccurate – it's a very broad area. It would be great if CSIRO could invest in mitigation. I don't see any signs it is doing that significantly."
James Hansen, a former NASA scientist known for his testimony to US Congress in 1988 that arguably put concern about climate change on the map, said he was stunned by the announcement.
"Holy shit! That is unbelievable," he said. "Is a conservative denier government in power?
"This seems to be a clear-cut case of shooting the messenger with the bad news. However, the messenger is needed to figure out what to do about the problem."
It is understood that the fate of the Cape Grim station, which is jointly operated with the Bureau of Meteorology, and about 20 scientist positions is not yet decided, but is on the list of possible cuts.
Cape Grim is among the top sites in the world for monitoring trends in greenhouse gases because purified air reaches the Tasmanian coast having blown 20,000 kilometres across the oceans. The CSIRO has been planning celebrations to mark its 40th birthday in April.
A CSIRO spokesman denied it would be closed.
Scientists at the Friday briefing were told they would be notified by early March whether they had been sacked.
It was expected about 110 of some 135 people employed in a unit dedicated to oceans and atmosphere research would lose their jobs. Most jobs lost would be in Tasmania.
"The mood is very bad and depressed," one scientist who requested anonymity said. "People were questioning the logic of the cuts."
Scientists asked whether Dr Marshall had sought board approval for the move, but did not receive a clear answer.
Among the programs to go are the natural resource management unit, which last year released projections of climate change impacts for Australia out to 2050.
Stefan Rahmstorf, from Germany's Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research and a visiting professorial fellow at the University of New South Wales, said Cape Grim had a unique location and was a "critical node in the global network of monitoring stations".
"It provides essential data that allows us to understand the patterns of how greenhouse gases and pollutants spread in the atmosphere."
He said the planned culling of most of CSIRO's climate research positions would be viewed as "an act of anti-science vandalism" in Germany.
"Closing down climate research capacity at a time of rapid global warming is not just short-sighted, it borders on the insane," he said. "A country that amputates its ability to analyse and understand climate change in its own region will simply harm itself – it is basically setting out to adapt to a changing climate blindfolded."
Axel Timmermann, professor of oceanography at Hawaii University, said CSIRO had been a leader in el Nino and climate change research for two decades.

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Follow the Leader: How 11 Countries Are Shifting to Renewable Energy

Climate Reality

Who's embracing wind? Solar? Geothermal? These countries could provide blueprints for the worldwide shift to renewable energy.
This December, almost 200 countries from every corner of the world signed the Paris Agreement, committing to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and – dare we say – save the world!
The question on everyone's mind: How?
The truth is, we don't have to wait on scientists to invent some newfangled contraption. The solutions are already here! We simply need to ramp up renewable energy generation, and fast. Here's how: follow the leader. There are many countries already forging ahead towards a low-carbon future. Whether solar is starting to shine or the answer is blowing in the wind, the solutions are growing every day. But don't take our word for it. Read on to learn how places around the globe are going renewable.

1. Sweden

In 2015, Sweden threw down the gauntlet with an ambitious goal: eliminating fossil fuel usage within its borders, and immediately ramping up investment in solar, wind, energy storage, smart grids, and clean transport. And the best part? The Swedes are challenging everyone else to join them in a race to become the first 100-percent renewable countries. Now that's a competition where everyone wins.

2. Costa Rica

Thanks to its unique geography and commitment to environmental preservation, small but mighty Costa Rica meets a huge amount of its energy needs using hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, wind, and other low-carbon sources. Next on the horizon: Costa Rica aims to be entirely carbon-neutral by 2021.

3. Nicaragua Not to be outdone by its Tico neighbors, Nicaragua saw renewables comprise up to 54 percent of all electricity production in June 2015. How'd Nicaragua do it? In 2007, the then-president began emphasizing renewable energy investments. By 2012, Nicaragua invested the fifth-highest percentage worldwide of its GDP in developing renewable energy. Next on the to-do list: The country is aiming for 90-percent renewable energy by 2020, with the majority of energy coming from wind, solar, and geothermal sources.

4. Scotland

Great Scot! The answer to Scotland's energy needs is blowing in the wind. In 2015, wind power produced the equivalent of 97 percent of the country's household electricity needs.

5. Germany

Germany set the trend when it comes to renewable energy. It leads the world in solar PV capacity and has even been able to meet as much of 78 percent of a day's electricity demand from renewables. For a relatively cloudy country of over 80 million people, Germany is looking forward to a seriously bright future for solar energy!

6. Uruguay

Going renewable doesn't have to take a lot of time and generous subsidies. Uruguay is now 95-percent powered by renewables after less than 10 years of concerted effort. The country invested heavily in wind and solar with no subsidies or increases in consumer costs. The secret? "Clear decision-making, a supportive regulatory environment, and a strong partnership between the public and private sector."

7. Denmark

Denmark got 42 percent of its electricity from wind turbines in 2015, and that's not just a bunch of hot air. Even with two wind farms offline, that's the highest percent of wind power ever achieved worldwide. The country aims to be 100-percent fossil-fuel-free by 2050, and these strong winds at its back will help push Denmark to that goal.

8. China

Wondering how the world's largest carbon emitter can also be a leader in renewable energy? It may seem counter-intuitive, but in 2014 China had the most installed wind energy capacity – by a longshot – and the second-highest installed solar PV capacity. China has also committed to phasing out coal and cleaning up its polluted air.

9. Morocco

With ample sun, Morocco decided to go big. Bigger than anyone else in the world, in fact. The largest concentrated solar plant on earth recently opened its first phase in Morocco. With its accompanying wind and hydro plants, the mega-project will provide half of Morocco's electricity by 2020.

10. The United States of America

In the US, a new solar energy system was installed every two minutes and 30 seconds in 2014, earning the US fifth place on the installed solar PV capacity global rankings (see: Germany). America also has the second-highest installed wind energy capacity in the world (see: China). Unfortunately, the energy demand in the States far outpaces the renewable capacity. Renewables only accounted for about 13 percent of the country's electricity generation as of 2014. That said, a new NOAA study estimates that America could reduce emissions by nearly 80 percent in just 15 years without impacting consumer electricity costs by using more renewables. So there's still #ClimateHope for the US to make the switch. Join Climate Reality if you want to help make that happen.

11. Kenya

Kenya believe it? This country is looking to geothermal energy to power its future and reduce reliance on costly electricity imports. As of 2015, geothermal accounted for 51 percent of Kenya's energy mix – up from only 13 percent in 2010. Kenya's also betting big on wind, with Africa's largest wind farm (310 MW) set to provide another 20 percent of the country's installed electricity generating capacity. Those two combined will help Kenya generate 71 percent of its electricity with renewables.

See Any Trends?
One common theme among all these success stories is that when leaders actively set ambitious goals for renewable energy generation and support them with investments, growth comes fast. The second lesson: there's no one-size-fits-all solution to making the switch. Some countries, like Kenya, have ample geothermal and can ramp up fast. Others, like Denmark, have been steadily improving their wind power generation for decades. Still others, like Morocco, are betting big on solar while planning for backup from other renewables.

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How Climate Change Unfairly Burdens Poorer Countries

Time - Justin Worland

The U.S. emits the second most greenhouse emissions but is largely shielded from the worst effects

Wealthy countries that have contributed the most to climate change tend to be most immune to its effects, according to new research, a finding that has implications for the question of who bears responsibility for addressing the crisis.
The study, published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, shows that more than half of the highest-emitting countries rank among the least vulnerable to climate change and nearly two-thirds of the countries with low or moderate emissions are acutely vulnerable to the effects.
Researchers classified more than 10% of countries as "free riders," ranking in the top fifth in terms of emissions and the bottom 20% in terms of vulnerability. These countries include the United States, much of Europe and Australia.
On the opposite end, six countries were classified as "forced riders" with relatively low emissions and high vulnerability. Some island countries with low emissions, like Kiribati, could be wiped off the face of the Earth thanks to rising sea levels.

(a) Climate change equity for 2010. (b) Climate change equity for 2030. Countries with emissions in the highest quintile and vulnerability in the lowest quintile are shown in dark red (the climate free riders), and those countries with emissions in the lowest quintile and vulnerability in the highest quintile are shown in dark green (the climate forced riders). Intermediate levels of equity are shown in graduating colours, with countries in yellow producing GHG emissions concomitant with their vulnerability to the resulting climate change. Data deficient countries are shown as grey.

The new study provides a new way for policymakers to quantify inequality when it comes to tackling climate change. Countries around the world have agreed on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" since the early days of climate negotiations in the 1990s. That principle calls on wealthy emitters like the United States to do more to address global warming than poorer countries who emitted less historically.
The issue of differentiated responsibilities played a key role at climate negotiations in December that resulted in the Paris Agreement. Developing countries, many of which are especially vulnerable to rising sea levels, drought and a whole slew of other climate-related issues, demanded developed nations help pay for them to adapt to climate change. The U.S. and other countries committed billions to that effort with that concern in mind.
Another provision, known as loss and damage, calls on developed countries with historically high emissions to help pay for the loss and damage in poor countries caused by climate change (though the agreement falls short of making such payments a legal obligation).
The study, which makes reference to the principle of differentiated responsibilities, underscores the need to implement the Paris Agreement to address the disparity. "To ensure equitable outcomes from climate negotiations, there needs to be a meaningful mobilization of policies," the study says. "Member states have both an exceptional opportunity and a moral impetus."

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