Keeping Pace With Climate Change In Crop Development

The Conversation - Stephen Whitfield | Julian Ramirez-Villegas

Maize can be particularly sensitive to agricultural and climate conditions. Shutterstock

In a context of unprecedented climate change and food insecurity, adaptation in agricultural systems is critical in Africa. It is crucial to breed new varieties of staple crops that are adapted to deal with climatic conditions. This work is a key climate adaptation measure and an important part of international research and development programmes.
Crops have been specifically developed to be resistant to climate-related stresses like drought. There have been impressive advances in the capabilities of crop-breeding programmes as a result of recent investments. An example of this is the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa initiative. But a new study finds that the new crop varieties that are being developed are struggling to cope with the rate of climatic change.
The study uses crop models and climate change projections to analyse the rate of change in key climate indicators associated with maize. Maize is Africa's most widely grown crop and the main staple for more than 300 million people across the continent.
Maize can be particularly sensitive to climate and management conditions. It is subject to crop failures, which disproportionately affect those with little capacity to invest in inputs like improved seeds and fertilisers, and irrigation.

Crops will struggle
The study identifies the time-scales over which significant increases in temperatures, which shorten the growing period of crops, are expected. It compares this with the time-scales over which new crop varieties are typically bred, tested, and commercially released and adopted in Africa.
Increases in temperature speed up the time that it takes for crops to reach maturity. Shorter crop duration means that the maize accumulates less dry matter through its life cycle, and so yields less. This is why, in different agricultural environments across Africa, varieties are bred to have a duration that matches the full length of the growing season in that particular environment. In Africa, this length is usually defined by the duration of rains.
The results of the study, published in Nature Climate Change, suggest that significant temperature change, outside of the experienced range of current conditions, is likely to take place more quickly than the time in which crops can currently be developed. The consequence is that the durations of newly developed crops are unlikely to be suited to the changed climatic conditions and associated growing seasons.

Making improvements
The study identifies three main options for improving the compatibility between crop development time-scales and those of climatic change.
The first is to speed up the crop development and deployment process. New breeding technologies, like marker-assisted selection of genetic material, can contribute towards this. Marker-assisted selection – where a set of small DNA identifiers, or markers, are used to describe a larger DNA sequence (the genetic material) – helps to identify the desired parent material for breeding quicker than conventional breeding approaches. Institutional and cross-national cooperation in crop breeding can also contribute towards speeding up the breeding process.
The paper also highlights the importance of streamlining processes of regulatory testing and market dissemination. Where appropriate, these can represent a significant component of crop development in some African countries.
A second option is to develop crops in a preemptive way. This can be done in greenhouses regulated at higher temperatures to simulate expected future conditions. It can also take place in analogue locations – locations whose current conditions represent those that are expected to closely correspond with the target areas in the future. Identifying these types of environments has been the subject of recent research. Such an approach requires caution because of the cost involved and the uncertainty associated with future climate projections. The paper makes some cautious recommendations about appropriate temperature increases for preemptive breeding.
A third option is to look at stringent climate change mitigation. Compared with current trajectories of change, it is demonstrated that a global move toward the most ambitious emissions reductions pathways documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change would contribute to a better aligning of temperature increases with the time-scales of crop development and deployment.
If new crop varieties are to contribute more effectively to linked challenges of achieving food security and adapting to a changing climate, a combination of these options will be needed. These needs are urgent. They are significant for maize on the African continent, but are not restricted to this crop or continent. The problem of climate change and crop development represents a challenge for agricultural systems across the globe.

Links

• Creating 480 varieties of wheat is deserving of the World Food Prize
• How modern crops can ensure food security in a heatwave
• Why genetically modified crops have been slow to take hold in Africa
• 'CO2 is food for plants!' What will higher emissions mean for crop productivity?

Mythbusting: Electricity Prices In South Australia

Renew Economy - Andrew Stock

In recent months, there have been a number of inaccurate media stories linking high electricity prices in South Australia with the State's high proportion of wind and solar generation.
However, a new report from Climate Council reveals that electricity price spikes in South Australia have reduced as renewable energy grows.

Key Findings

1. South Australia is a global leader in renewable energy and is much further ahead than the other states in reducing emissions to tackle climate change.

• The state is on track to reach its target of 50% renewable electricity by 2030.
• The state's transition away from fossil fuels, particularly coal, is consistent with action needed to avoid catastrophic climate change and ensure the survival of the Great Barrier Reef.

2. Recent short-term increases in South Australia's wholesale power prices have been driven primarily by a reliance on expensive gas for power and a lack of competition amongst power generators.

• Average electricity prices have been historically higher in South Australia due to the state's more expensive fossil fuel options and lower electricity market competition.
• Recent events, including very cold weather, work on the interconnector that restricted supply from Victoria and gas prices at almost four times the usual level, put the two main electricity generators in South Australia in an extraordinarily powerful position to increase prices.
• Without South Australia's high level of renewables, the state's reliance on expensive gas would be even greater. ›› Queensland (with less than 5% renewable electricity) has until recently experienced similarly high prices to South Australia (with more than 40% renewable electricity).
• In the past year in particular, all eastern states have experienced similar short-term price patterns over many months, even though New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland generation is overwhelmingly coal based. This is further evidence that the cause of price rises is due to a range of industry factors rather than renewable energy.

3. Renewable energy has dramatically reduced electricity price spikes in South Australia.

• Electricity price spikes (periods where prices exceeded $5,000/MWh) have fallen significantly across the National Electricity Market as the proportion of renewable energy has increased but especially in South Australia.
• For comparison, in 2008, South Australia experienced more than 50 price peaks compared to one price peak in 2015.

4. The key to reducing electricity prices in South Australia is reducing the state's reliance on expensive gas through increased competition and a smarter, more connected electricity grid.

• Improved competition in the electricity market could be achieved by reducing the time intervals set for spot price (wholesale electricity price for a given time period) settlements from half-hour blocks to five-minute blocks.
• Developing alternative reserve capacity such as large-scale and distributed energy storage would reduce exposure to short-term price exploitation when wind and solar supply are low.
• Increased interconnection with the eastern states would expand supply options and increase competition with South Australian gas fuelled power plants.
• AEMO and ElectraNet (2016) have been jointly working together to plan for and accommodate and manage higher levels of wind and solar PV in South Australia.

Links

• Download the Report
• Renewable Energy Jobs: Future Growth in Australia
• Abnormal Autumn 2016
• These crossbenchers could have a huge impact on Australia's climate policy

Your Air Conditioner Is Making You Cooler, And The World Warmer. We Can Change That.

World Bank - Karin Shepardson


Cooling and refrigeration are essential to increasing labor productivity, improving educational outcomes, safeguarding food and minimizing its waste, improving healthcare, and supporting countries' digital ambitions (that computer of yours heats up pretty fast). And all of this, from improved productivity to education to health, is vital to eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity across the globe.
And yet, it turns out that that refrigerator in the corner is doing more than extending the life of your fruits and vegetables: it's also contributing to global warming. In a somewhat ironic twist, we know now that in filling the hole in the ozone layer over the past few decades under the aegis of the Montreal Protocol, we unwittingly had been adding to global warming. The good news, though, is that we can act on this quickly, and the result (in ecological terms) is almost immediate. But if we continue as we have been, we could face big problems.
Undoubtedly, the Montreal Protocol's success at reversing a universal environmental problem, depletion of the earth's ozone layer, also helped in our fight against climate change. Without the Montreal Protocol agreement and its 25 years of action to stop production and human consumption of harmful chemicals, the climate challenge facing the world today would be far worse. Overall, the climate achievements in phasing out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) an organic compound made exclusively of chlorine, fluorine, and carbon, have been equated to the equivalent of eight billion tons a year of CO2. Yet, in hindsight we've learned that hydrofluorocarbons or HFCs, the chemicals picked to replace some CFCs, are very potent greenhouse gasses. What's worse, their use is on the rise globally, since they are seen to be the best substitutes for chemicals used in air conditioners and refrigerators.
The most concerning HFCs are thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide. Yet unlike carbon dioxide, HFCs tend to stay in the atmosphere for a shorter period, making it possible, if removed, to see a visible reversal of temperature rise impacts within the lifetime of our children. By contrast, the longer atmospheric life of CO2 means it takes longer to see the impact of the removal of the gas, so tangible results would only be seen by our children's children.

From Dubai through Vienna to Kigali
With the climate challenge facing the world already immense, it's clear that action to reduce HFCs must be accelerated to avoid an irreversible tipping point. This has been the key focus of the Montreal Protocol meetings just held in Vienna, attended by ministers from around the world with a focus on phasing down HFCs. One seminal study projected that global temperatures can be reversed by as much as 0.5 degrees Celsius if HFCs and their projected growth are eliminated. We need every tenth of a degree possible.
Several of my colleagues and I attended the Vienna meetings, which were part of a series that started last November in Dubai with the specific aim to work toward amending the Montreal Protocol to phase-down HFCs. An amendment is important because it will give a clear global signal for action and since it's taken within the Montreal Protocol framework, it would enter into legal force rapidly. The discussions highlighted the need for flexibility to respond to different country situations, while at the same time demonstrating strong multilateral consensus for decisive action. The final decision will be made in October in Kigali, Rwanda.

We're already working on it
But with predicted growth projections of HFC being the highest in developing countries (no surprise, since this correlates closely with economic development), the World Bank Group is not waiting for an international agreement to start accelerating action on HFC reductions. We are already working with countries under our Montreal Protocol projects to see where reductions can be taken and where we can reduce HFCs as technology becomes available, affordable, and safe. For example in Thailand, we're working with manufacturers to produce air conditioners that are friendly to the ozone layer, while reducing HFCs and saving energy. Additionally, with Government of Canada support, we are developing tools for Bank teams to identify and act on opportunities for a "triple win" to reduce ozone, reduce HFCs, and increase energy efficiency where air conditioning and refrigeration are part of Bank investments.
We know the Montreal Protocol has already achieved results. We've had reports this year that the recovery of the hole in the ozone layer has already reached a surface area equivalent to the size of India, and full recovery is projected to be achieved before mid-century. But it's too early to celebrate: the challenge remains immense. October will be the time to make a decision that reverberates for generations to come.

Links
Using auctions to support climate and development outcomes
Latin America and the Caribbean: seizing a trillion dollar opportunity in climate investments
Using technology to stay ahead of disaster risk
A map is worth a thousand words: Supporting forest stewards in addressing climate change