Economists and energy analysts question environmental and economic case for Matt Canavan’s coal push
Federal minister for resources Matt Canavan has touted new research on
the benefits of replacing Australia’s existing coal power stations with
‘ultra-supercritical’ technology.
Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP
Research touted by the resources minister that reportedly suggests
Australia can rely on coal to meet emissions reduction has been attacked
by experts and appears to have been misreported.
The Australian reported on Tuesday
that research conducted by the Department of Industry, Innovation and
Science – and commissioned by Matt Canavan, the federal minister for
resources – showed Australia could cut its emissions by 27% if it
replaced its existing coal power stations with the more efficient
“ultra-supercritical” technology.
If true, that would get the country close to its 2030 target, which is a reduction of 28% below 2005 levels.
However, a summary of the analysis seen by Guardian Australia
suggests the new coal technology – under a very expensive demolition and
construction program – could reduce Australia’s emissions by 12% at
most.
In fact, to reduce Australia’s emissions by 27% by relying on
reductions in the electricity industry alone, the sector’s
emissionswould need to be reduced to almost zero. Australia’s entire
electricity sector only accounts for about a third of its carbon
emissions.
On the basis of the analysis, Canavan released a statement attacking
“people who oppose the coal industry for ideological reasons”.
“Coal has an important role to play as Australia, and the rest of the
world, reduce carbon dioxide emissions,” he said. “Australia has the
resources to be a low-cost and efficient energy superpower. Access to
affordable and reliable power underpins our economy and is the key to
long-term jobs in the manufacturing sector.”
But energy analyst Olivia Kember from the Climate Institute said
locking in decades of emissions from new coal generators would
jeopardise longer-term commitments made in Paris, including reaching net
zero emissions in the second half of the century.
“Australia has committed through the Paris Agreement to achieve net
zero emissions. Building new coal stations that can go no further than a
reduction of 25% to 34% doesn’t achieve the net zero goal, and would
lock Australia into decades of high-carbon electricity while the rest of
the world is switching to clean power,” Kember said.
“That’s such a risky outcome that I doubt any financial institutions
would even finance investments in ultra-supercritical coal in
Australia.”
Australia’s chief scientist reached a similar conclusion in his preliminary report on the future security of the electricity market, which was commissioned by the Turnbull government.
In the report Alan Finkel said: “Owner-investors are exiting
emissions-intensive power stations as these reach the end of their
design lives. It has been clear from our consultations that no one is
contemplating investing in new ones, nor would financial institutions
provide finance.”
Rod Campbell, an economist at the Australia Institute, said an
ambitious plan to replace all of Australia’s existing coal power
stations with brand new ones would drive up electricity prices. And it
would do so by more than if coal was replaced with renewable energy.
Campbell pointed to government-funded clean-coal research from 2015,
which already showed energy from some new-built wind farms was cheaper
than advanced coal power stations. And that report claimed that by 2030,
all wind and solar would be cheaper.
But more up-to-date analysis
from the US financial advisors, Lazard, shows that almost all new wind
and and solar power is now cheaper than almost all new coal power.
Labor’s spokesperson for climate change and energy, Mark Butler, said
Canavan’s intervention was part of an ideological attack on renewable
energy.
“For a government that has been so vocal about not picking winners,
the Turnbull government seems to be very comfortable picking coal as
Australia’s future energy source,” he said in a statement.
“The latest intervention by Minister Canavan trumpeting coal isn’t
about securing a reliable and affordable energy future; at its core it
is just the latest ideological attack on renewables by a government
desperate to draw attention away from the fact it has no plan on energy
and climate,” Butler said.
Brendan Pearson, the chief executive of the mining lobby group, the
Minerals Council of Australia, welcomed the departmental report saying
it showed “new coal generation technologies can reduce Australia’s
emissions sharply while providing reliable and affordable energy to
households and businesses.”
“It is simply common sense that these technologies be part of
Australia’s efforts to meet its emissions reduction targets while
maintaining affordable and secure energy supply,” he said in a
statement.
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