Sea Level Rise

National Geographic

Ocean levels are getting higher. Why is this happening, and what can we do to stem the tide?

Families in Kiribati, especially those new to the island nation, are often forced to live in marginal areas, where flooding from high tides is increasing. Photograph by Kennedy Warne

Core samples, tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, the annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, roughly twice the average speed of the preceding 80 years. Over the past century, the burning of fossil fuels and other human and natural activities has released enormous amounts of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. These emissions have caused the Earth's surface temperature to rise, and the oceans absorb about 80 percent of this additional heat. The rise in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by this ongoing global climate change:

• Thermal Expansion:
  When water heats up, it expands. About half of the past century's rise in sea level is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.
• Melting Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps:
  Large ice formations, like glaciers and the polar ice caps, naturally melt back a bit each summer. In the winter, snows, primarily from evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. This imbalance results in a significant net gain in the ratio of runoff to ocean evaporation, causing sea levels to rise.
• Ice Loss from Greenland and West Antarctica:
  As with the glaciers and ice caps, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt at an accelerated pace. Scientists also believe meltwater from above and seawater from below is seeping beneath Greenland's and West Antarctica's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. Higher sea temperatures are causing the massive ice shelves that extend out from Antarctica to melt from below, weaken, and break off.

Superstorm Sandy narrowed New Jersey's beaches by more than 30 feet on average. At Seaside Heights it swept away the pier under the roller coaster. Photograph by Stephen Wilkes

Consequences
When sea levels rise rapidly, as they have been doing, even a small increase can have devastating effects on coastal habitats. As seawater reaches farther inland, it can cause destructive erosion, wetland flooding, aquifer and agricultural soil contamination, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.
When large storms hit land, higher sea levels mean bigger, more powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path. In addition, hundreds of millions of people live in areas that will become increasingly vulnerable to flooding. Higher sea levels would force them to abandon their homes and relocate. Low-lying islands could be submerged completely.

Meltwater gushes from an ice cap on the island of Nordaustlandet, in Norway's Svalbard archipelago. Photograph by Paul Nicklen, National Geographic Creative

How High Will It Go?
Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and is likely to accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the degree to which they will rise is an inexact science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise between 11 and 38 inches (28 to 98 centimeters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, place sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.

Montana A deluge falls from the core of a thunderstorm near Glasgow in July 2010. "I felt like if you could stand in the middle and look up, you'd see straight into the heavens," says photographer Sean Heavey. Panorama composed of four images; Sean R. Heavey, Barcroft Media/Landov

Links

• Rising Seas
• Air Pollution
• The Big Thaw
• Weather Gone Wild
• Oceans Will Rise Much More Than Predicted, NASA Says