Climate Change: Model Predicts Australia To Lose Iconic Sites In New Sea-Level Rise

ABC News - Tom Wildie

Tourists would be disappointed at a visit to Sydney under new climate change modelling. (Supplied: Coastal Risk Australia 2100)

Major sites at risk NSW: Sydney International Airport, Circular Quay, Botanic Gardens QLD: Brisbane Airport, Stradbroke Island, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast VIC: Docklands, Bells Beach, Greater Geelong WA: North Fremantle, Cottesloe and Coogee Beaches, Elizabeth Quay, WACA Ground SA: Glenelg, Hindmarsh Island TAS: Lauderdale

Sydney's iconic Circular Quay and Botanic Gardens, Brisbane Airport, Melbourne's Docklands and Perth's Elizabeth Quay will all be underwater in dramatic new climate modelling.
The projection used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States which revealed global sea levels could rise by 2 metres by 2100 if emissions remain at their current levels.
It is substantially higher than the 74-centimetre increase proposed in a 2013 Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Professor John Church from the Climate Change Research at the University of New South Wales said while rising sea levels cannot be stopped, they could be slowed.
"We cannot prevent all sea-level rise, but we can certainly rein in the worst-case scenarios," Professor Church said.
"With business as usual emissions, the questions are when, rather than if, we will cross a 2-metre sea-level rise."

Brisbane will lose the airport, islands off the coast, Wellington Point and parts of East Brisbane.

Professor Church said the Australian Government needed to prepare for inevitable rises.

"We need to do two things. One is we need to urgently mitigate our emissions," he said.

"But because we can't stop all sea-level rise we will have to adapt, so we will need to think about appropriate planning measures for Australia, for our coastline."

Animals at Melbourne's Sea Life Aquarium will probably be the only ones happy with the projected sea-level rise. (Supplied: Coastal risk Australia 2100)

Professor Church said the Government also needed to consider the impact rising sea levels will have on Pacific neighbours, which did not have the same resources as Australia.
Faster melting of the Antarctic ice sheet is the major contributor to the revised increase in sea levels, but Professor Church said it could be mitigated.
"With the strongest emissions reductions, the Antarctic contribution is very much in line with what the last IPCC report said, whereas if we have unmitigated omissions, then the Antarctic contribution starts to become the dominant contribution fairly quickly," he said.
According to the Coastal Risk Australia website, which maps predicted sea-level change, major infrastructure could be lost by the end of the century.
Website creator Nathan Eaton said 80 per cent of Australians lived in coastal areas, and it was critical people appreciated the impact rising levels would have.

Perth will lose all of Langley Park, Elizabeth Quay and the WACA. (Supplied: Climate Risk Australia 2100)

A predicted sea level rise of 2m by the year 2100 will see Adelaide's Glenelg and Hindmarsh Island at risk. (Supplied: Coastal Risk Australia 2100)

Links

• Coastal Risk Australia
• NGIS Australia
• CRC for Spatial Information
• Geoscience Australia
• Antarctic and Climate & Ecosystems CRC CANUTE Sea Level Rise Calculator 
• Department of the Environment
• NCCARF Coast Adapt: A Coastal Climate Risk Management Tool
• CSIRO Climate change in Australia
• Climate Change Science in the Australian Government
• Bureau of Meteorology
• IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
• Geoscience Australia DEM download
• OzCoasts FAQ
• OzCoasts DEM
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