Adani's 'Green Light' On Carmichael Coal Mine More Mirage Than Reality

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Sometimes, the lost desert wanderer does stumble into an oasis, replete with proverbial date palms and life-saving waters.
Most such visions, though, turn out to be mirages.


Adani coal mine gets go ahead
Approval has been given for the controversial Carmichael coal mine in central Queensland. Vision courtesy ABC News

And so it is with the latest bold announcement from Adani. Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk materialised in Townsville on Tuesday too, to hear the company declare it had approved a "final investment decision" for its Carmichael coal mine.
"Adani Project Gets Green Light", the Indian-owned miner trumpeted.
Indeed, "pre-construction work" on the Galilee Basin mine is to begin in the September quarter on a project that has so far cost the company $3.3 billion – including the purchase of Abbot Point coal port.
The Carmichael projects will generate 10,000 direct and indirect jobs, it said.
Interestingly, though, Adani omitted any number on the cost of the project. Is it $16.5 billion and Australia's biggest proposed coal mine, as so often claimed?
A lot else was left unsaid, not least that the mine is yet to receive definitive financial close.

Adani Group founder Gautam Adani says the company "is still facing activists".  Photo: AAP

Not so mega
That's why Downer EDI, one of the expected beneficiaries on Tuesday only said it had received "further clarification of the scope of work to be done and the process for negotiating a binding mining services contract".
The Queensland government is keenly aware what is being proposed so far by Adani is not a "megamine", as Treasurer Curtis Pitt noted last week. Carmichael "is certainly smaller than many mines around the world", Pitt said.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.  Photo: Bradley Kanaris

True, the $4 billion-odd mine being discussed in the Queensland cabinet might one day be expanded towards the original 60 million tonnes-a-year monster that has fossil fuel fans drooling and environmentalists fuming.
But that "might" needs many unlikely factors to fall its way.

Adani not yet ready to roll. Photo: Glenn Hunt

Can Adani get a $900 million loan from the federal government for a 400-kilometre railway to link mine and port, for instance?
Can it get over remaining legal challenges, not to mention the protests from environmental groups determined to head off another giant source of greenhouse gases that will help cook what remains of the Great Barrier Reef, and all the tens of thousands of tourism jobs dependent on that?
"We have been challenged by activists in the courts, in inner city streets, and even outside banks that have not even been approached to finance the project," Gautam Adani, the company's chairman, intoned in Churchillian terms, omitting all but the beaches.
"We are still facing activists. But we are committed to this project."

Biggest hurdle
The highest hurdles, though, have always been thrown up by the investment and financial community. With Australian banks ruling out support, international investors are left to wonder what they know about the mine's viability.
Investment bank UBS's commodity team reviewed the prospects of Galilee coal in 2013. The team estimated then a $110 a tonne thermal coal price would be needed for the projects there to be viable.
Even assuming some costs may be lower now, the outlook for coal is, if anything dimming, further.
That sum compares with KPMG's forecast last month of Newcastle's benchmark coal trading below $US65 ($87) a tonne for years to come – even before a discount is applied to Carmichael's typically poorer quality coal. (See KPMG's forecast Newcastle coal benchmark price chart below.)
It's not only that the coal price remains nowhere near what would make Galilee's lower quality coal profitable, especially when compared with Hunter Valley's exports.
But also that the whole "pit to plug" plan Adani was touting – digging, shipping, and burning its own coal – is looking increasingly dubious.
Tim Buckley, a former Citi analyst and now director of the coal-sceptic Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis, notes the news at home just gets worse for Adani.
Adani Power declared on Monday it was considering selling control of one of its biggest coal-fired power stations mostly because it could not compete with domestic coal. And India has vowed to ban imported coal within a year to save foreign exchange.
With Carmichael's prospects bad and getting worse, for Buckley the biggest question might be why Australian governments and the hopeful suppliers are being dragged along for the ride.
"What game are they playing because Adani is not getting to financial close today," Buckley says.

Links

• Adani announces 'green light' for Carmichael mega coal mine
• Scientists outline blueprint to save Great Barrier Reef
• Queensland government settles on royalty plan but doubts remain
• Queensland Says It Won't Play Any Role In Funding For Adani Project
• Federal Labor Feels The Heat Over Adani, And Coalition Is Sweating Too
• New Coalmines Will Worsen Poverty And Escalate Climate Change, Report Finds
• Just 7 Per Cent Of Voters Want The Government To Invest In Adani Mine: Poll
• Queensland Government Offers Adani Mining Group A 'Royalties Holiday' That Could Cost State $320 Million
• This Is Not Rhetoric: Approving The Adani Coal Mine Will Kill People
• Climate Council: Climate, Health And Economics Are Against Carmichael Mine
• Adani May Face Fine Over Sediment Released In Floodwaters After Cyclone Debbie
• Westpac's Anti-Coal Stance Exposes A Coalition Out Of Sync With Business And Public On Climate
• Big Four Banks Distance Themselves From Adani Coalmine As Westpac Rules Out Loan