Solar power, once so costly it only made economic sense in spaceships, is becoming cheap enough that it will push coal and even natural-gas plants out of business faster than previously forecast.
That's the conclusion of a Bloomberg New Energy Finance outlook for how fuel and electricity markets will evolve by 2040.
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| Good for the planet: Green energy such as solar power is getting cheaper. Photo: Glenn Hunt |
The scenario suggests green energy is taking root more quickly than most experts anticipate. It would mean that global carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuels may decline after 2026, a contrast with the International Energy Agency's central forecast, which sees emissions rising steadily for decades to come.
The report also found that through 2040:
- China and India represent the biggest markets for new power generation, drawing $US4 trillion, or about 39 per cent all investment in the industry.
- The cost of offshore wind farms, until recently the most expensive mainstream renewable technology, will slide 71 per cent, making turbines based at sea another competitive form of generation.
- At least $US239 billion will be invested in lithium-ion batteries, making energy storage devices a practical way to keep homes and power grids supplied efficiently and spreading the use of electric cars.
- Natural gas will reap $US804 billion, bringing 16 per cent more generation capacity and making the fuel central to balancing a grid that's increasingly dependent on power flowing from intermittent sources, like wind and solar.
Onshore wind, which has dropped 30 per cent in price in the past eight years, will fall another 47 per cent by the end of BNEF's forecast horizon.
That means even in places like China and India, which are rapidly installing coal plants, solar will start providing cheaper electricity as soon as the early 2020s.
"These tipping points are all happening earlier and we just can't deny that this technology is getting cheaper than we previously thought," said Henbest.
Capacity of coal will plunge even in the US, where President Donald Trump is seeking to stimulate fossil fuels. BNEF expects the nation's coal-power capacity in 2040 will be about half of what it is now after older plants come offline and are replaced by cheaper and less-polluting sources such as gas and renewables.
In Europe, capacity will fall by 87 per cent as environmental laws boost the cost of burning fossil fuels. BNEF expects the world's hunger for coal to abate starting around 2026 as governments work to reduce emissions in step with promises under the Paris Agreement on climate change.
All told, the growth of zero-emission energy technologies means the industry will tackle pollution faster than generally accepted.
While that will slow the pace of global warming, another $US5.3 trillion of investment would be needed to bring enough generation capacity to keep temperature increases by the end of the century to a manageable 2 degrees Celsius, the report said.
The data suggest wind and solar are quickly becoming major sources of electricity, brushing aside perceptions that they're too expensive to rival traditional fuels.
By 2040, wind and solar will make up almost half of the world's installed generation capacity, up from just 12 per cent now, and account for 34 per cent of all the power generated, compared with 5 per cent at the moment, BNEF concluded.
Links
- Cheap wind, solar will make Australia a magnet - Bloomberg
- Coalition wants wind, solar forced to match each MW with storage
- Wind and solar expected to supply third of global power by 2040
- Solar And Wind Energy Aren't “Alternative” Any More
- US Reports a Major Milestone in Wind and Solar Power
- Solar And Wind Revolution Happening Much Faster Than Expected
- Wind and Solar Hit a New Record in the US And There's No Slowing Them Down
- Coal Market Set To Collapse Worldwide By 2040 As Solar And Wind Dominate
- How wind and solar will kill coal, sooner than Finkel says
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