CSIRO, Energy Networks Australia Lay Out Roadmap For Emissions-Free Future

ABC News - Louise Yaxley

The roadmap comes after two years of analysing Australia's electricity system. (Reuters: Jason Lee)

Key points: Australia will need "stable and enduring carbon policy" to reach energy goals, Energy Networks Australia says Roadmap says 25 new large-scale solar or wind farms will be needed in the next five years Rooftop solar and battery storage will play key roles

Federal and state governments have been told Australia could generate electricity with no carbon emissions by 2050, but a carbon price will be needed to achieve that.
Energy Networks Australia and the CSIRO have spent two years analysing the future of the electricity system.
Their roadmap says a national energy plan with an emissions intensity scheme starting by 2020 should be part of a successful energy transition.
Energy Networks Australia's chief executive John Bradley said it would send the signals needed to drive a smooth shift to a reliable, low-cost and low-carbon energy.
"The carbon price and the certainty around carbon policy is certainly one of the things that has been identified in this process," Mr Bradley said.
"If we have stable and enduring carbon policy, which doesn't change at every election cycle, then we will see a lower cost of investment, whether that is large-scale renewables or … small-scale systems that households are investing in.

"We will see a more stable transition that keeps energy security at this critical time."

The report predicts about 25 new large-scale solar or wind farms will be needed in a five-year time frame to replace coal-fired power stations.
Mr Bradley said rooftop solar would also be a big contributor. He identified Queensland as a huge growth area.
"By 2030, there would be as much rooftop solar capacity on the system as there currently is coal-fired generation capacity," he said.
"Similarly, in New South Wales there's likely to be more rooftop solar capacity by 2030 than there is coal-fired generation in New South Wales today."

Batteries to play key role in transition
The report found part of the solution to the reliability problems with renewables would be to manage peak demand.
CSIRO chief economist Paul Graham said that could include rewarding people for using their batteries during times of peak demand.
"If you could turn your battery on at that time, that might save the grid some costs. That is the sort of signal we need," he said.
He pointed out it would also require new high-tech meters, "so the customer knows when their power demand is getting higher and they can pull that back".
Mr Bradley said batteries would also play a key role in eventually replacing coal-fired power generators.

"You could see very large-scale, grid-connected batteries playing a role as we are looking at in some parts of South Australia," he said.

"But you will also see this mass-market, take-up of residential and small customer battery storage."
He predicted there would be 760,000 residential batteries in Queensland by 2030 and over 2 million by 2050.
"So that is going to be a major integration challenge for the grid, but also a huge opportunity to avoid investment in other parts of the system," he said.

Links

• Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap Final Report
• Gas prices halved, problem solved. Is it that simple?
• Power prices could halve under new gas export restrictions, Turnbull says
• A $2 million Northern Economic Plan grant will trial low carbon emission and electric buses on Adelaide roads
• First locally manufactured low emission diesel bus rolls off the production line
• Turnbull government confirms Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are rising
• Capitulation on climate ignores evidence and will come at a cost

Big Four Banks Distance Themselves From Adani Coalmine As Westpac Rules Out Loan

The Guardian - Joshua Robertson

Coalition frontbencher calls for Queenslanders to boycott Australia’s second-largest bank after it says it will now only lend to mines in established coalfields

Westpac has said it will not fund new thermal coal projects unless they are in existing mining regions and meet other guidelines. Photograph: Joel Carrett/AAP

Australia’s big four banks have all ruled out funding or withdrawn from Adani’s Queensland coal project, after Westpac said it would not back opening up new coalmining regions, prompting a scathing attack from the resources minister, Matthew Canavan.
Westpac, the country’s second-largest bank, released a new climate policy on Friday, saying it would limit lending for new thermal coal projects to “only existing coal producing basins”.
The coal mined must also have energy content “in at least the top 15% globally”, meaning at least 6,300 kilocalories per kg, according to the Westpac policy.
Adani’s Carmichael mine would be the first in the Galilee basin and the coal would have only 4,950 kilocalories per kg, the miner told the Queensland land court in 2014.
Canavan, thealso the minister for northern Australia, invited Queenslanders seeking home loans or term deposits to boycott Westpac as a result of its decision.

“I can only conclude from this decision by Westpac that they are seeking to revert to their original name as the Bank of New South Wales, as they are turning their back on Queensland as a result of this decision,” he said.
“May I suggest those Queenslanders seeking a home loan or a bank deposit or some such in the next few months might want to back a bank that is backing the interests of Queenslanders.”
Canavan also accused Westpac of turning its back on “the Indigenous people of Queensland” because of majority support for the project among Wangan and Jagalingou traditional owners, although this is contested by an anti-Adani faction.
The Queensland senator castigated the bank for “almost zero consultation with the people of north Queensland”, saying it was “more interested in listening to the noisy activists in Sydney than the job hungry people” in his constituency.
Westpac has come under pressure from environmental groups and various activist campaigns, including one that targeted its cash machines and a rally that interrupted the bank’s 200th anniversary celebrations in Sydney this month.
Adani’s final investment decision on Carmichael had been slated for this month but the company subsequently said it would be made by June before mine construction from August.
An Adani Australia spokesman said the company had not approached Westpac for funding for the mine, rail or port expansion.
But Blair Palese, the chief executive of climate advocacy group 350.org, said Westpac’s decision represented “an enormous blow to this project and the future of coal in Australia”.
Palese said the federal and Queensland governments, which both support the proposed mine, were “becoming increasingly isolated as businesses and international investors refuse to touch coal and the Adani project”.
“After months of community pressure, Westpac’s announcement is a strong indication that people everywhere are ready to stop this climate disaster in its tracks and that Adani and our government ignore them at their peril,” he said.
Adani is seeking a $1bn concessional loan from the commonwealth for its rail project linking the mine to its Abbot Point coal terminal.
On Thursday Andrew Harding, the CEO of Adani’s rival Aurizon, told the Melbourne Mining Club his company could build the line for “at least $1bn less” than Adani’s proposal, with fewer land acquisitions and less impact on the environment.
Adani wrote off that suggestion as “fanciful and monopolistic”.
“The so-called plan is a smokescreen aimed at defending Aurizon’s expensive monopoly of coal rail lines in Queensland,” Adani said. “The Aurizon plan is designed to instil fear and stifle hope in the people of regional Queensland.”
The CEO of Westpac, Brian Hartzer, also said the bank would increase its lending target for “climate change solutions” from $6.3bn to $10bn by 2020 and $25bn by 2030.
“Westpac recognises that climate change is an economic issue as well as an environmental issue, and banks have an important role to play in assisting the Australian economy to transition to a net zero emissions economy,” Hartzer said. “Limiting global warming will require a collaborative effort as we transition to lower-emissions sectors, while also taking steps to help the economy and our communities become more resilient.”

Adani previously received a $543m loan facility in two deals with Westpac, alongside others from Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank, to acquire a 99-year lease on the Abbot Point terminal, according to the climate advocacy group Market Forces.
NAB ruled out funding the Carmichael project in September 2015, a month after Commonwealth Bank parted ways with Adani as project finance adviser.
The CEO of ANZ, Shayne Elliott, in effect ruled out financing the mine last December when he predicted a downward shift in the bank’s exposure to coalmining would continue for the foreseeable future.
Critics of the Adani proposal, which would be Australia’s largest and one of the world’s largest coal mines, argue the impact of carbon emissions from its coal is incompatible with global attempts to limit warming to less than 2C.
Canavan said Adani’s target markets in India and north Asia would simply source lower quality coal with higher emissions elsewhere, a conclusion he said was shared by the Queensland supreme court in its recent rejection of a “green activist claims” against the mine.
The Adani spokesman said the company was “fervently committed” to the project “despite Westpac and other Australian financial houses choosing to ignore the opportunity to invest”.
“The financial houses have, instead, chosen to bow to environmental activists,” he said. “In so doing, they have chosen to continue to invest in overseas coal projects that will generate jobs in those countries at the expense of Australians, many of whom are their investors and depositors.”
The Carmichael coal “easily meets the emissions standards announced by Westpac”, the spokesman said.

Links

• Adani coalmine at heightened risk of becoming a stranded asset, report says
• Turnbull says government could subsidise gas pipelines and Adani rail
• John Hewson says $1bn loan to Adani the 'last thing' Coalition should be doing
• Adani is not just another coalmine, it is a turning point for the nation
• 'Irreversible consequences': Adani coalmine granted unlimited water access for 60 years
• Former Greens leader Bob Brown to launch alliance to oppose Adani coalmine
• Adani coalmine activists gear up to fight: ‘This will dwarf the Franklin blockade’
• Adani coalmine 'covertly funded' by World Bank, says report
• Fossil fuel divestment is worth $7tn globally yet Australia still clings to coal
• Barnaby Joyce endorses loan for Adani's Carmichael coalmine
• Adani Carmichael mine: Australia Institute demands answers from Turnbull in full-page ad
• Opposition to public funding for Adani rail link outweighs support, poll finds

The Cheap Energy Revolution Is Here, And Coal Won’t Cut It

Bloomberg - Tom Randall


QuickTake: Trump Pushes Coal Revival

Wind and solar are about to become unstoppable, natural gas and oil production are approaching their peak, and electric cars and batteries for the grid are waiting to take over. This is the world Donald Trump inherited as U.S. president. And yet his energy plan is to cut regulations to resuscitate the one sector that's never coming back: coal.
Clean energy installations broke new records worldwide in 2016, and wind and solar are seeing twice as much funding as fossil fuels, according to new data released Tuesday by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). That's largely because prices continue to fall. Solar power, for the first time, is becoming the cheapest form of new electricity in the world.
But with Trump's deregulations plans, what "we're going to see is the age of plenty—on steroids," BNEF founder Michael Liebreich said during a presentation in New York. "That's good news economically, except there's one fly in the ointment, and that's climate."
Here's what's shaping the future of power markets, in 15 charts from BNEF:

Government subsidies have helped wind and solar get a foothold in global power markets, but economies of scale are the true driver of falling prices. Unsubsidized wind and solar are beginning to outcompete coal and natural gas in an ever-widening circle of countries.

The U.S. may not be leading the world in renewables as a percentage of grid output, but a number of states are exceeding expectations.

Wind and solar have taken off—so much so that grid operators in California are facing some of the same challenges of regulating the peaks and valleys of high-density renewables that have plagued Germany's energy revolution. The U.S. boom, while not the first, has been remarkable.

Electricity demand in the U.S. has been declining, largely due to increased energy efficiency in everything from light bulbs and TVs to heavy manufacturing. In such an environment, the most expensive fuel loses, and increasingly that's coal.

With renewables entering the mix, even the fossil-fuel plants still in operation are being used less often. When the wind is blowing and the sun is shining, the marginal cost of that electricity is essentially free, and free energy wins every time. That also means declining profits for fuel-burning power plants.

The bad news for coal miners gets even worse. U.S. mining equipment has gotten bigger, badder, and way more efficient. Perhaps the biggest killer of coal jobs is improved mining equipment. The state of California now employs more people in the solar industry than the entire country employs for coal.

Historically, economic growth has gone hand-in-hand with increased energy consumption. Advances in efficiency are changing that, too. Call it the Great Decoupling.

The sharpest change in U.S. energy has been driven by advances in oil and gas drilling through shale rock. This type of horizontal drilling has also seen enormous improvements in efficiency, deploying fewer workers, fewer rigs, and drilling fewer wells to produce ever-more fossil fuels. The natural gas that comes out of these wells is practically free.

But demand for that oil and gas may not be long for this world. The world's cars are getting wildly more efficient.

And the biggest threat to oil markets—electric cars—is just getting started. Joel Couse, the chief economist for Total SA, told the BNEF conference that EVs will make up 15 percent to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030, after which fuel "demand will flatten out," Couse said. "Maybe even decline."

Couse's projection for electric cars is the highest yet by a major oil company and exceeds BNEF's own forecast.

The outlook for electric cars—and for battery-backed wind and solar—is improving because the price of lithium-ion packs continues to tumble.

The shift to cleaner energy is ridding the air of local pollutants that cause heart disease, asthma, and cancer, as well as the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. Trump's Energy Secretary, Rick Perry, told the BNEF Summit that the U.S. should remain in the Paris climate accord, but should renegotiate it to draw out stronger pledges from European countries.

Meeting U.S. commitments made under President Barack Obama shouldn't be too difficult. America is already half way to meeting its 2025 goal.

And cleaning up emissions hasn't exactly burdened consumers. Personal expenditures on electricity and fuels is down significantly.

Just meeting the Paris goals for emissions reductions doesn't go far enough to fend off the catastrophe scientists anticipate from climate change. Eventually the economy will need to decarbonize completely—in energy, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and land use. And solutions for some of the trickiest and most expensive parts of that equation are still decades away.

Fortunately, global energy markets at least seem headed in a cleaner direction.

Links

• Biggest U.S. Companies Setting More Renewable-Energy Targets
• China’s $290 Billion New Area Lifts Hope for Better Cities
• Let's Get to Work on a Global Energy Grid
• China Doubts U.S. Climate Pledge as Trump Mulls Paris Exit
• Republican Cracks Emerging in Trump's Coal-Heavy Energy Plan
• Clean Energy Isn’t Just the Future—It’s the Present