Cooking The Books On Climate Change Policy

Fairfax - Eryk Bagshaw

Two reports released on the same day, from the same government department with two very different sets of findings.
The Turnbull government's climate change policy review would have you believe we are well on our way to reaching our international commitment of a 26-28 per cent reduction by 2030.

The government's energy policy explained
Here's what you need to know about the national energy guarantee - the government's newest energy policy.

Only problem is we are not.
Omitted from the final public presentation are spreadsheets the department quietly released on a separate database a week before Christmas that shows Australia will be at least 140 million tonnes above its target by 2030 at the current rate of growth.

There has been an extraordinary 7600 per cent increase in small scale solar power.  Photo: PA

While the policy review states: "we have a record of meeting and beating our emissions reduction targets and are on track to meet our 2030 target," the department's emissions report admits clearly: "Australia's emissions have risen in the past three years."
The rise has come on the back of the expansion of the liquefied natural gas sector. The report says that will be offset in the future by "flat electricity demand, the renewable energy target and the announced closures of coal power stations".
Under the government's national energy guarantee, the electricity sector – Australia's largest emitter –must achieve a proportionate decrease in emissions to meet our Paris obligations.
Slice 26 per cent of electricity emissions off the total target and the economy is still cumulatively 600 million tonnes short of meeting its 2030 benchmark.

Minister for Environment and Energy Josh Frydenberg.  Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

That means the transport, agriculture and waste sector have to somehow find more savings than an entire sector that is weaning itself off the biggest polluter of all: coal-fired power.
It will only reach its target if the closure of Liddell power station goes ahead despite the Turnbull government's best attempts to prevent it.

Australia's emissions projections as contained within the policy review.  Photo: Climate Change Policy Review

Fuel efficiency standards, electric cars and the extraordinary 7600 per cent increase in small-scale solar power driven by consumers over the past decade will help, but they wont be enough.
As the department's report says: "The key drivers of emissions to 2030 are increases in transport activity linked to population and economic growth and increases in herd numbers in agriculture linked to international demand."
Which means the economy needs to slow down or rural voters and the Nationals are likely to be gearing up for a fight over farming.
Given the choice between the two, it's likely a government of either stripe will take the third option.
Throw Paris out the window when it comes to crunch time.
An independent analysis commissioned by the Greens suggests the size of the abatement is now so great that it would require us to take all cars off the road or cows off farms, not in a decade, but tomorrow.
The laughable proposition underscores the size of the task in the decade to come.
The first step in addressing that gap is admitting that it exists. Which why the deliberate omission of a chart in a review that clearly shows Australia sailing way above its targets in the climate change policy reviews is so striking.

The department and Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg consulted no less than 270 stakeholders and received 357 submissions but the government's obfuscation in omitting the offending chart from its final policy review is remarkable.
By pretending it doesn't exist, it has given themselves room to move.
Into that space falls the government's concessions to "stakeholders", aka big business, which have been carefully worded to essentially allows companies to increase their emissions if their production does.
"One option would be to broaden access to baseline increases, so all facilities have an up-to date baseline that reflects their individual circumstances," the policy review states.
"In addition, baselines could be regularly updated to reflect actual production. This would see baselines increase with production, supporting business growth. If production falls, the baseline would automatically fall in proportion."
The concessions typify the government's unshakeable faith in the market to deliver cleaner, cheaper outcomes.
Undoubtedly, consumers are becoming more energy conscious, the rapid increase in the uptake of household solar systems from 22,000 in 2008 to 1.7 million in 2017 and the expected growth of electric vehicles to 15 per cent of all new cars by 2030 are both examples, but without another major technological revolution it is difficult to see how consumers will drive all the gains needed on their own accord.
Tellingly, the only factors not accounted for in the projections beyond the national energy guarantee, as estimated above, are the ministerial forum on light vehicle emissions and "the work of the Council of Australian Governments".
Neither have achieved much so far, and the size of the total task is now so great that it risks becoming in policy what it always was in name, a target – to be missed when the final shot is taken.

Links

• Turnbull Has Politicked Himself Into Irrelevance On Energy And Climate In 2018
• Why Snowy 2.0 Is A Write-Off From The Start
• Ipsos Poll: Only 18 Per Cent Think Turnbull Government Is Doing A Good Job On Climate Change
• Experts Speak Out About Australia’s Emissions Projections And Climate Policy Review