Australian Governments Concede Great Barrier Reef Headed For 'Collapse'

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham

The world’s climate change path means the Great Barrier Reef is headed for “collapse” according to a plan endorsed by state and federal governments that critics say turns a blind eye to Australia’s inadequate effort to cut carbon emissions.
The federal and Queensland governments on Friday released a “new and improved” Reef 2050 Plan to save the iconic natural wonder, which explicitly acknowledges climate change poses a deadly threat to the reef.
The comments depart starkly from previous official efforts to downplay damage wrought on the reef for fear of denting the tourism industry.

Global temperature rises this century must be kept below 1.5 degrees to ensure the Great Barrier Reef's survival, the government plan says. Photo: E.Matson, AIMS

Based on current climate projections, the outlook for coral reefs generally is “one of continuing decline over time, and in many regions, including the Great Barrier Reef, the collapse and loss of coral reef ecosystems”, the plan says.
It concedes that consecutive coral bleaching events and other stressors “have fundamentally changed the character of the reef”, which is one of the most diverse ecosystems on the planet.
“Coral bleaching is projected to increase in frequency ... those coral reefs that survive are expected to be less biodiverse than in the past,” the plan says.

Critics say the revised Reef 2050 Plan ignores Australia's weak emissions reduction targets. Photo: Australian Institute of Marine Science

The reef is the world’s largest living structure, covering an area roughly the size of Italy.
Coral reefs are particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change including higher sea temperatures, ocean acidification and more intense storms and cyclones.
The plan recognised that “holding the global temperature increase to 1.5°C or less is critical to ensure the survival of coral reefs”.
“Respected coral scientists have documented in peer-reviewed journals that most of the world’s coral reefs will not survive unless the global temperature increase is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,” it said.

Fish swim among bleached coral in the Great Barrier Reef. Photo: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

However WWF-Australia head of oceans Richard Leck said Australia’s emissions reduction efforts were not even in line with limiting warming to 2°.
He cited a 2017 report by the United Nations environment program that found Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions were set to far exceed its pledge under the Paris accord. This agreement aims to limit global temperature rises this century to well below 2° and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°.
“It is simply not good enough for the revised plan to suggest the global community must work to limit warming when Australia is not doing its fair share,” Mr Leck said.
The Australian Marine Conservation Society’s reef campaign director Imogen Zethoven said increased recognition of climate change as a threat to the reef must be followed by action.
She said scientific research soon to be published showed that if global temperature rises reached an average 2.4°, the Great Barrier Reef would suffer bleaching events twice a decade from 2041. This would occur as early as 2035 if average temperature rises reached 4.3°.
Bleaching events would be far less frequent under an average temperature rise of 1.6°, Ms Zethoven said.
“The onset of twice-a-decade bleaching will then become the onset of annual bleaching and eventually [the entire reef] will be affected,” she said.
Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said Australia’s Paris target was ambitious and the nation was “on track to meet and beat its 2020 target, we will also meet our 2030 target”.
The Queensland government has previously said millions of dollars in federal reef spending is essentially useless unless matched by efforts to tackle climate change
Labor environment spokesman Tony Burke said the federal government had neglected the reef by allowing large-scale land clearing in nearby catchments, which damages water quality.

Links

• Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan
• Mass coral bleaching forces review of reef protection plan
• 'Truly scary': researcher wants to brighten clouds to rescue the Great Barrier Reef
• Cherry-picked charity to pocket at least $22.5 million in taxpayer funding for reef
• 'Insufficient': Queensland government savages reef deal
• Study of reefs reveals benefits of keeping global warming in check
• 'Unorthodox': CSIRO CEO Marshall learnt of $444m reef plan by 'rumour'
• Great Barrier Reef's five near-death experiences revealed in new paper
• Reef charity's fundraising record casts doubt on $444 million grant