02/08/2018

Scorched Earth: Counting The Costs Of Extreme Weather

AFR - Leslie Hook | Kerin Hope

Girogos Handrinos stands outside his burned house in Mati, east of Athens. The impact of Greece's fires was worsened because its emergency services have faced severe budget cuts during the country's financial crisis. Thanassis Stavrakis
London/Athens: Thanasis Kontidis was hosing down the veranda of his family's summer home in Mati last Monday afternoon when he caught a whiff of acrid smoke. "I looked up and saw the sky was a beige colour so I knew there was a fire somewhere. But I didn't realise it was getting close."
Half an hour later the 22-year-old university student was fleeing for his life.
"The wind was gusting in different directions and there was an orange glow in the distance," he says. "I soaked one of my mother's scarves, tied it over my nose and mouth and grabbed my phone. Then I got in the car and tried to get away."
But the narrow streets of the Greek seaside resort surrounded by pine forests were already jammed with vehicles rushing to escape the fire. Mr Kontidis abandoned his car and started running towards the sea.
While fires are common in some parts of the world such as California and Australia, what is unusual about this year is that these disasters are happening in different places, catching people unawares.
While he survived, 87 people were killed in the blazes in and around Athens, with 100 still missing. The blaze was unprecedented for Greece, officials say. But it is one of several freak fire and extreme heat events from Canada to Portugal and Japan over the past year that have raised alarm about the impact of changing weather patterns on people's lives.
Climate change is an "accelerant" for these fires, according to the scientists who study them, although it is not the only reason. Urbanisation, changing land use patterns, the arrival of invasive species and even austerity are contributory factors. There have been more than 450 fires covering land of more than 30 hectares in Europe so far this year, according to EU data, which is 40 per cent higher than the average over the past decade.
While fires are common in some parts of the world such as California and Australia, what is unusual about this year is that these disasters are happening in different places, catching people unawares. Fires burning inside the Arctic Circle are the result of drought and heat that have made forests there unusually combustible. Peat lands in the UK, traditionally protected from blazes by moisture, have also been burning amid a heatwave. In the US, the annual average number of large fires has doubled since the 1970s, and this week Yosemite Valley, a national park in California, was evacuated due to a nearby fire.
"There are a lot of extreme fire events occurring," says David Bowman, a professor of fire ecology at the University of Tasmania. He points to the Thomas fire that ravaged Los Angeles' suburbs and freak fires in central Chile last year. "It's not normal — I shouldn't be overwhelmed with opportunities to study extreme fire events."
There is also a growing understanding of their cost. The recent fires have highlighted some of these, both economic and human: 87 people dead in Athens, $US100m worth of forests burnt in Sweden and more than $US2b spent on fire fighting in the US last year. "With each extreme weather event, we get new information for our actuarial models for how likely these events are and their cost," says Trevor Houser, co-director of Climate Impact Lab.
Smoke billows from a fire outside Ljusdal, Sweden. The country is fighting its most serious wildfires in decades. Maja Suslin
In Sweden, authorities have struggled to respond because their firefighting force is not sufficient to handle blazes of such size — the burnt area is 40 times greater than the annual average in the country over the past decade, and the fires are still burning out of control. Other European countries have sent in assistance.
In Greece, which had not suffered a prolonged heatwave before the blaze, the dense illegal housing, high winds and slow response from authorities were key reasons why the fires became so devastating, says Efthymios Lekkas, an Athens university tectonics and geology professor. The impact was worsened because its emergency services have faced severe budget cuts during the country's financial crisis. Local government officials in Mati also failed this year to complete an annual clearing of undergrowth required by law, leaving a thick layer of combustible pine needles and dead branches on pavements and in public spaces around the resort.
"You need a number of ingredients, for wildfires in particular. Climate change is only one factor, but it is a very important factor," says Rowan Sutton, director of climate research for the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Research. "If it is hotter and drier, the risk is greater."
Climate change is central to scientists' understanding of which areas are likely to face greater fire risks in the future. Areas such as the forests in the UK are expected to see an increase in fires as conditions become hotter.
There have been more than 450 fires covering land of more than 30 hectares in Europe so far this year, according to EU data, which is 40 per cent higher than the average over the past decade.
This summer's fires come at a time of growing concern about extreme weather events that have lashed the planet, from hurricanes, to heatwaves, to floods. While specific weather events cannot be directly attributed to the rising levels of carbon in the atmosphere, there is a correlation between climate change and the increasing frequency of these natural disasters.
However, calculating the economic impact of climate change remains a field that is part art, part science, because of the great uncertainties about how much, and how rapidly, global temperatures and weather patterns will change.
Lloyds, the London-based insurance market, estimates that as much as $123bn in global gross domestic product in cities could be at risk from the impact of a warming planet, including windstorms and floods.
Meanwhile, a 2015 study by the journal Nature found that due to climate change, global incomes were likely to be one-fifth lower in 2100 than they would be with a stable climate. And later this year the UN will issue a landmark report that quantifies the impact of 1.5C of warming, compared with 2C. Leaked copies suggest that the world will pass the 1.5-degree warming target by about 2040.
A wildfire approaches Dichato, central Chile, in January last year. Freak fires devastated huge swaths of the country. AP
The Paris climate agreement signed in 2016 commits more than 170 countries to limit global warming to well below 2C. However, many of the signatories have not made commensurate commitments to reach that goal. A growing number of scientists believe warming is likely to exceed 2C.
The biggest concern, according to Sam Fankhauser, director of the UK's Grantham Research Institute, is what happens if the planet exceeds that 2C warming target on which many economic analyses are based.
"If you just say it costs 3 per cent, 4 per cent or 5 per cent of GDP . . . that misses the whole story of, what happens if it goes really, really bad." Mass relocations of populations, water shortages and increased conflict caused by displacement are among the worst-case scenarios.
"People are starting to have the feeling that it might be a lot worse than some of the estimates suggest," says Mr Fankhauser, referring to the economic modelling. "Now that you experience it, [it] feels a bit more unpleasant than what the models would have said".
A firefighter waters down a back burn near the town of Igo, California, where scorching winds and dry conditions are fueling a number of fatal wildfires. AP
On average, richer countries in the northern hemisphere will see less negative impacts than poorer countries closer to the equator, according to the study in Nature. Some countries could even benefit. For example in Sweden, global warming could mean more sunshine and faster-growing forests, providing a boost to its timber industry.
Stephane Hallegatte, a senior economist in the World Bank's climate change group, says one of the things that will determine the cost of climate change is how quickly people adapt and prepare for a warmer world.
"If you assume that nobody acts until there is a disaster, then with the same change in physical conditions you can have a very high cost," he says.
"The key thing is to see this fire in Sweden not as a Swedish event. People in different parts of the world, say Canada or Russia, should look at this and think this is exactly what they have to expect."
Like other aspects of climate change, adapting to fire risk is difficult: the cost can be hard for societies to accept, when there is a perception that the risks are uncertain. Prof Bowman, the fire scientist, says building codes and urban design need to take fire risks into account. Better land management and landscape features such as fire breaks, parks and golf courses can help reduce fire risk in some areas.
"We haven't got time to debate things, we really need to move into the adaptive mode. But there are . . . always reasons to kick the can down the road," he says, adding that countries are moving far too slowly to address growing fire risks.
"So our adaptive process will be a zigzag reacting to fire disasters. It is heartbreaking, but unfortunately that seems to be the trajectory we are on, we will just have to deal with more death and destruction."

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