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Previous studies have concluded that the effects of climate change can increase the risk of violent conflict Image: REUTERS/Amit Dave
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The impacts of climate change are increasingly viewed as global
security risks, which will have far-reaching implications for both human
and renewable natural systems.
Most climate–conflict research has focused on East Africa and sub-Saharan Africa.
The SIPRI Insights paper, Climate change and violent conflict: Sparse evidence from South Asia and South East Asia, explores and summarizes the findings from a systematic literature review of climate–conflict research on South Asia and South East Asia.
The SIPRI Insights paper, Climate change and violent conflict: Sparse evidence from South Asia and South East Asia, explores and summarizes the findings from a systematic literature review of climate–conflict research on South Asia and South East Asia.
Although these regions have been greatly affected by both climate
change and conflict, there have only been a small number of rigorous
academic studies that focus on the climate–conflict relationship.
Interlinked causes
While this constrains the ability to draw general conclusions,
there is context-specific evidence that climate change can have an
effect on the causes and dynamics of violent conflict in the region
when: (a) it leads to a deterioration in people’s livelihoods; (b) it influences the tactical considerations of armed groups; (c) elites use it to exploit social vulnerabilities and resources; and (d) it displaces people and increases levels of migration.
In acknowledging that these mechanisms are often interlinked and more noticeable in some climatic, conflict and socio-economic contexts than in others, the need for more research in both South Asia and South East Asia is clear.
In acknowledging that these mechanisms are often interlinked and more noticeable in some climatic, conflict and socio-economic contexts than in others, the need for more research in both South Asia and South East Asia is clear.
In summary, and acknowledging the limited evidence base, what can be gleaned about the linkages between climate change and violent conflict in South Asia and South East Asia?
The key finding from the systematic literature review is that
knowledge is worryingly limited. In fact, countries such as Pakistan,
Myanmar and Afghanistan, which are experiencing climate change and are
host to notorious violent conflicts, are underrepresented in academic
research.
Similarly, the low number of rigorous academic studies that have so
far been conducted in the countries and regions of South Asia and South
East Asia constrains the ability to draw broader conclusions about the
regions as a whole.
Nonetheless, the studies reviewed confirm previous analyses and
show that, under certain circumstances, climate change increases the
risk of conflict.
Four mechanisms
Moreover, this study demonstrates that the four mechanisms
identified in previous reviews of the climate–conflict linkage are also
at play in the context of South Asia and South East Asia, albeit with
notable differences.
Climate-related environmental change influences violent conflicts
when: (a) it negatively affects people’s livelihoods; (b) it influences
the tactical considerations of armed groups in ongoing conflicts; (c)
elites exploit social vulnerabilities and resources; and (d) it
displaces people and increases migration in vulnerable and highly
vulnerable natural resource dependent contexts.
Due to the limited amount of rigorous empirical research on the
climate–conflict linkage in South Asia and South East Asia, more
research will be indispensable to refining understanding of how climate
change might increase the risk of violence and under what circumstances
it is likely to do so.
As violent conflicts are multi-causal, context-specific and develop
over time, further research is essential not only to address knowledge
gaps, but also to enable a more refined understanding of the
applicability and adequacy of different response mechanisms in diverse
contexts.
To this end, it is important to analyze and compare regions that,
despite being vulnerable and highly exposed to climate change, are able
to peacefully mitigate such stressors. Nonetheless, there are relevant
lessons to draw from the available research.
The climate–conflict linkage primarily plays out in contexts that
are already vulnerable to climate change, and where income is highly
dependent on agriculture and fishing. Therefore, it is important to
support the development of alternative sources of income, to increase
the coping capacity of communities to manage temporary losses of income
and to strengthen communities’ resilience in order to mitigate conflict
risks.
Various scholars have made suggestions that this might entail
insurance schemes that smooth out the annual income of vulnerable
populations, a reduction in income sensitivity to climate conditions,
legal reform and improved land rights, drought preparedness programmes
and agricultural assistance.
Previous programmes, such as food assistance programmes, have been followed by either a decrease or an increase in violence at different periods of implementation, as they are likely to alter the power relations in a community.
Previous programmes, such as food assistance programmes, have been followed by either a decrease or an increase in violence at different periods of implementation, as they are likely to alter the power relations in a community.
Disaster risk management
The dynamics of violence following the implementation of projects
need to be considered when policy responses are planned. The research
therefore points to the need to develop conflict-sensitive analyses when
designing and implementing disaster risk management and climate
programming.
In conclusion, the underlying review illustrates the interplay
between different mechanisms that link climate change and conflict.
To further understand the relationship and advance policy guidance
on how to mitigate conflict risks, future research should address
resource management, conflict prevention and disaster risk reduction in
an integrated manner.
Future research needs to contribute in the following three key areas.
1) Addressing spatial and temporal differences.The impacts
of climate change are expected to increase over time, but many
climate-related disasters are seasonal and affect the dynamics of
conflicts differently throughout the year. In addition, few studies
address urban contexts despite increased urbanization and the
vulnerability of urban centres in the region.
2) Making use of contextual understanding.Climate
change and conflict events have different effects on different
societies. It is therefore crucial to understand these context-specific
differences in order to enable tailored responses. These should include
local and marginalized communities. To provide contextually adequate
responses that empower vulnerable groups, it is important to assess the
needs, vulnerabilities and resilience of affected communities.
3) Taking account of institutional capacity and governance.
The transnational character of climate change provides new challenges,
but also increased relevance, for institutions and organizations. Where
institutional capacity is low, there is an increased risk that aid will
be mismanaged and the risk of conflict after a climatic event increases.
It is therefore important to analyze how local, national and regional
institutions are developing their ability to deal with these risks.- Climate change and violent conflict: Sparse evidence from South Asia and South East Asia
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