Coal Power Finished By 2050 If Temperature Increase Kept To 1.5 Degrees: IPCC

AFR - Ben Potter

The special report by the International Panel on Climate Change lays out a stark challenge to the coal industry if the world is to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees. Fairfax Media

Coal power would have to be eliminated or reduced to negligible levels and agriculture and land use changed dramatically for the world to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a landmark report says.
The special report by the International Panel on Climate Change lays out a stark challenge to the coal industry if the world is to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees - the aspirational level that nations agreed to pursue in addition to their individual national targets in the Paris climate agreement.
Australian pure coal exporters such as Whitehaven Coal, Yancoal and New Hope Corporation base their outlooks on International Energy Agency "New Policies" scenarios which allow for modest increases in global coal exports out to 2040, with larger increases in their primary Asian markets.
The Morrison government embraces these projections which make for a bullish outlook for the Australian coal export industry, and has abandoned carbon emissions reduction as a goal of energy policy. Coal companies are enjoying bumper profits and surging share prices off the back of high prices and strong demand from Asia.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Monday that Australia would stick with its primary Paris commitment - to reduce carbon emissions by 26-28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 - but would not give any more money to a global climate fund that aims to help the world's poorest countries cope with the effects of climate change.

Pressure mounts
But the government is about to come under increasing international pressure to take more effective action to limit climate change and the IPCC report is a key step leading up to the United Nations climate conference in Poland in December at which Australia and other laggard countries will be pressed to raise the level of their ambition.
The benign scenarios for coal exports that the government and the coal industry prefer are associated with higher temperature increases that scientists say would bring more frequent instances of dangerous heat, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones and irreversible damage to coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef.
Forerunners were seen in the northern hemisphere summer with wildfires in the Arctic, Europe and California and near-50 degree temperatures in southern Europe and California.

Extreme weather and coral bleaching would occur more frequently under 2 degrees Celsius of global warming compared to 1.5 degrees Celsius. ACF et al. 

By contrast, the IPCC report says that in order to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees - a level scientists say would bring fewer dangerous climate changes and events - "the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0% (0-2%) of electricity". It notes this finding is one in which it has "high confidence".
Carbon emissions would need to be reduced by 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030 and to around net zero by 2050. These are much more ambitious than the government's target and more in line with the policy federal Labor took to the 2016 election but is yet to confirm as 2019 election policy.

Gas would need CCS
Renewable energy would supply 70-85 per cent of electricity and gas - another strong export industry for Australia - would supply 8 per cent of electricity when coupled with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS has been demonstrated technically but its cost is prohibitive and no commercial rollouts on existing thermal power stations have resulted from trials conducted in the US, Canada, Australia and China.

Limiting temeperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius will cause less damage to the Great Barrier Reef. Pictured: Green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) resting on sandy seabed, Great Barrier Reef, UNESCO World Heritage Site, Pacific, Australia Alamy

Agriculture would be challenged by increasing competition for land for biofuels and reafforestation, which would need to be part of the global effort to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. "Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements," the IPCC report says.
Transport would have to move from 5 per cent low emissions fuel in 2020 to 35-65 per cent - a particular challenge for Australia which lags other rich countries in electric vehicle takeup.

Limiting temeperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require much steeper reductions in carbon emissions. Climate Analytics

Links

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report: 1.5˚C
• Coal Must Go To Save Great Barrier Reef, IPCC Says In Dire Climate Warning
• The world has just over a decade to get climate change under control, U.N. scientists say 
• IPCC 1.5 C degree report points to high stakes of climate inaction
• UN warns paradigm shift needed to avert global climate chaos
• World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
• Low-Carbon Growth Is a $26 Trillion Opportunity. Here Are 4 Ways to Seize It.
• Half a Degree and a World Apart: The Difference in Climate Impacts Between 1.5 and 2˚C of Warming
• 6 Ways to Remove Carbon Pollution from the Sky
• Whitehaven Coal buckles on carbon disclosure
• Australia's new energy mess explained
• Macquarie joins $22b WA solar-wind hub project
• Solar to dominate renewables growth by 2023