Australia's mining industry and the Morrison government have rejected an international climate report that demands nations phase out all coal-fired power by mid-century and leave most fossil fuel reserves untapped to avoid dangerous global warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's special report, released on Monday, said average temperature increases could still be kept to 1.5 degrees but would require a "global transformation" of all sectors of the economy.
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| Sunset for coal and other fossil fuels? Not yet, says the Morrison government. Credit: Nic Walker |
Resources companies, though, fell on the Australian Stock Exchange, led by South32, the mainly coal miner spun-off from BHP. Its price sank 5.4 per cent or more than triple the overall market's slide of 1.4 per cent.
Industry groups, such as the Queensland Resources Council, dismissed the prospect of an early demise for the country's coal sector, saying Australian coal boasted relatively low emissions.
"There is a role for high-quality Australian coal and it's compatible with meeting Paris emissions reductions targets," Ian Macfarlane, council chief executive and a former Coalition energy minister.
"Our economy depends on the coal industry, and we can have both a strong coal industry and reduce carbon emissions."
The NSW Minerals Council likewise said coal had "very positive" future in the state, with strong demand from traditional and emerging export markets, a spokesman said.
"There are positive signs that these good conditions will continue in coming decades," he said, citing a recent industry forecast that annual Asian demand for coal burnt in power plants would jump by half from about 740 million tonnes to 1.147 billion tonnes by 2030.
Carbon budgets
However, the IPCC report's authors said the world would face severe consequences if the great bulk of fossil fuels including coal, oil and gas, weren't left in the ground.
At 1.5 degrees of warming, compared with pre-industrial levels, as much as 90 per cent of the world's coral reefs will die, and virtually all would be lost if temperatures rose two degrees, or about twice the increase so far.
Mark Howden, head of the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute, said emitting the equivalent of about 420 billions of carbon dioxide would exhaust the remaining carbon budget to cap warming at 1.5 degrees. Current annual emissions are about 42 billion tonnes, implying about a decade of pollution before "the need to go vertical" to zero emissions to keep within the temperature limit.
Emissions will need to fall 45 per cent from 2010 levels - or 58 per cent from 2015 totals - by 2030, the IPCC said.
Melissa Price, the federal Environment Minister, said the government would consider the IPCC report, saying the government "is committed to the Paris Agreement and takes its international obligations seriously".
"We’re particularly concerned about the implications for coral reefs, with the report finding climate
change will impact reefs across the world, including Australia," she said.
The Paris accord was signed three years ago by almost 200 nations, who pledged to keep warming to 1.5-2 degrees. Australia's pledge is to cut 2005-level emissions 26-28 per cent by 2030, a target environmental groups such as the Climate Action Tracker describe as "insufficient".
Labor, Greens
Both Labor and the Greens attacked the Coalition government, signalling the likelihood that climate change will become a major issue at the next federal poll due by mid-2019.
"At 1.5 degrees, we will see the consequences of climate-related risks to our health, our livelihoods, our food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth," Penny Wong, Labor's acting spokeswoman for climate change, said.
Senator Wong said "the government’s own data shows they will fail to meet their already inadequate Paris targets with pollution rising all the way to 2030".
Labor has pledged to increase Australia's carbon reduction effort to 45 per cent from 2005 levels and roughly triple the current share of renewable energy to 50 per cent by 2030.
Adam Bandt, the Greens climate spokesman, said the IPCC report showed it was "time to hit the climate emergency button", and that neither major party was prepared to take the necessary steps.
"If we don’t quit coal, we are screwed," said Mr Bandt. "Business as usual under Liberal and Labor is a death sentence."
Shutting down
Market forces, at least in Australia, indicate an exit from coal in the electricity sector is likely for all major plants by 2050 - unless governments intervene to extend their lives.
Origin Energy, for instance, plans to shut the Eraring coal-fired power station in NSW - Australia's largest - by 2032.
"We believe that net-zero emissions for the electricity sector by 2050 or earlier is achievable," Origin chief executive Frank Calabria said in the company’s 2018 Sustainability report.
One industry hoping to benefit from any shift towards low emissions in the carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry, a sector singled out by the IPCC as necessary if global temperatures are to avoid "overshooting" the targets.
"It’s obviously very pleasing the panel is endorsing the necessity for CCS," Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute spokesman Antonios Papaspiropoulos told Fairfax Media.
"This is a pivotal part of turning back the climate change siege," he said. "We’re starting to see a wider acceptance that more needs to be done to fight climate change, and CCS is part of this 'more'."
Links
- 'Next decade critical': Perils mount at 1.5 degrees of warming, says IPCC
- 'Terrible': Rising gas output lifts Australia's greenhouse gas emissions
- Climate scientists are struggling to find the right words for very bad news
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report: 1.5˚C
- Coal Power Finished By 2050 If Temperature Increase Kept To 1.5 Degrees: IPCC
- The world has just over a decade to get climate change under control, U.N. scientists say
- IPCC 1.5 C degree report points to high stakes of climate inaction
- UN warns paradigm shift needed to avert global climate chaos
- World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
- Low-Carbon Growth Is a $26 Trillion Opportunity. Here Are 4 Ways to Seize It.
- Half a Degree and a World Apart: The Difference in Climate Impacts Between 1.5 and 2˚C of Warming
- 6 Ways to Remove Carbon Pollution from the Sky
- Forget Paris: Australia needs to stop pretending we're tackling climate change
- Here's why the majority of green turtles in north Queensland are female
- 2017 was third warmest year on record for globe, scientists say
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