Lethal Heating: 10/08/18

08/10/2018

Coal Must Go To Save Great Barrier Reef, IPCC Says In Dire Climate Warning

ABC Science - Michael Slezak | Nick Kilvert

Key points

Greenhouse gas pollution must reach zero by about 2050 to stop global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, a report by the UN climate body warns
A 1.5C coral reefs are expected to decline by a further 70 to 90 per cent, the report says
Experts say coal power needs to drop to between 0 and 2 per cent of existing usage

Australia and the rest of the world must virtually eliminate the use of coal for electricity within 22 years if there is to be a chance to save even some of the Great Barrier Reef, the world's most authoritative climate science body has warned.
In a report authored by more than 90 scientists, and pulling together thousands of pieces of climate research, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said global emissions of greenhouse gas pollution must reach zero by about 2050 in order to stop global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
At current rates, they said 1.5C would be breached as early as 2040, and 2C would be breached in the 2060s.
If that happens, temperatures over many land regions would increase by double that amount. And at 2C of warming, experts said the world would risk hitting "tipping points", setting the world to uncontrollable temperatures.
With the world already 1C warmer than pre-industrial times, experts said this report, released by the IPCC in Incheon, Korea, was likely the last warning before it would be impossible to keep warming at 1.5C.
"We're not on track, we're currently heading for about 3 degrees to 4 degrees of warming by 2100," report contributor Professor Mark Howden from ANU said.

"To limit temperature change to 1.5 degrees we have to strongly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. They have to decline about 45 per cent by 2030 and they have to reach zero by 2050.

"On a global basis, coal will have to drop between 0 and 2 per cent of existing usage."
Coral reefs are expected to decline by a further 70 to 90 per cent under 1.5C, but that rises to more than 99 per cent reef loss as temperature rises hit 2C.
In Australia, that means the vast majority of the Great Barrier Reef will undergo significant upheaval or collapse.
Combined with increased ocean acidification due to higher carbon dioxide concentrations, this is expected to heavily affect fish stocks and diversity.
A rise of 2C would mean three times as much of the earth's terrestrial ecosystems would undergo transformations compared to a rise of 1.5C, significantly increasing species extinctions.

Modern humans have never seen an ice-free Arctic, but at 2C that would happen once a decade, compared to once a century at 1.5C.
A 2C rise would mean an extra 10 centimetres of sea-level rise by the end of the century, affecting an extra 10 million people. And it would double the number of people experiencing water scarcity.
And we would be hit with more extreme hot weather events in every part of the world, more floods in most, and more drought in some.
Those extreme events would be "far worse" as temperature increases go beyond 1.5C, according to Will Steffen from ANU's Climate Change Institute.
"Loss of the Amazon forests, melting of the permafrost, loss of ice in West Antarctic and Greenland, they are much riskier at 2 degrees than they are at 1.5," Professor Steffen said.
"They could lead to a tipping cascade where the system will get hotter and hotter even if we bring our emissions down."

Coal use needs to drop to '0 to 2 per cent': expert
In 2015, almost every country agreed to stop global warming at "well below" 2C under the Paris Agreement, and to try to limit it to just 1.5C.
But 1.5C is a global average, which is dampened by ocean temperatures and doesn't represent regional extremes, according to report contributor Jatin Kala from Murdoch University.
"Even some world leaders seem to think that 1.5 degrees is a small number, why do we care?" Dr Kala said.
"Warming over the land is at a higher level of magnitude. We care because when the global average is 1.5 degrees warmer, that means that several regions of the world are warming at much higher magnitudes — they'll be a lot warmer than 1.5."
To limit warming to 1.5C, there needed to be "deep changes in all aspects of society", according to Professor Howden.
"It does actually require major transformations in many aspects of society and to do those transitions, the next 10 years is critical," Professor Howden said.
"Electricity will have to be supplied by renewables on a global basis by the tune of about 70 to 85 per cent of electricity supply.
"Coal would have to drop to within 0 and 2 per cent of existing usage, and gas down to about 8 per cent of existing usage, and only if there was carbon dioxide capture and storage associated."
Although renewables like solar and wind are rapidly disrupting energy systems around the world, freight, aviation, shipping and industry are lagging behind in emissions reduction.
LNG processing is contributing significant greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration is "virtually not happening", according to contributor Peter Newman from Curtin University.
But Professor Newman said there was some movement in the right direction.
"Electric vehicles are rapidly happening around the world," he said.
"[In Australia], the industrial systems are not good, but the land systems however are a good sign. There has been significant reforesting of the landscape."

'No easy way' to avoid reaching tipping point
There is a limit to the amount of carbon we can pump into the atmosphere, after which point restricting the temperature rise to 1.5C becomes impossible.
Researchers say at current emissions rates the world will hit that point between 10 and 14 years from now. Overshooting that mark means that our only option may be to employ "experimental and untested" carbon removal technologies.
These technologies are yet to be proven at scale, and critics say they have been used to fuel "magical thinking".
"There isn't an easy way to do this," said Associate Professor Bronwyn Hayward from the University of Canterbury.
"If we don't make these really difficult, unprecedented cuts now, there's fewer options for sustainable development. We'll be forced to rely more on these unproven, risky and potentially socially undesirable forms of carbon removal."
Minister for the Environment Melissa Price released a statement in response to the report, in which she said the Government was "particularly concerned" about the implications for coral reefs.
"More than ever this report shows the necessity of the Morrison Government's $444 million investment in the Great Barrier Reef's management," the Minister said.
"While Australia only contributes about 1 per cent of global emissions, we will deliver on our commitment to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030."
Labor has vowed to take back the Government's $444 million Great Barrier Reef Foundation funding — which was granted without a competitive tender process and without the foundation asking for it — if it wins the next federal election.
Ms Price's statement also said that Australia's emissions intensity is at its lowest level for 28 years. But according to the Government's own data, Australia's overall emissions have increased for the third year in a row.
The Government was criticised for sitting on that data for nearly two months, before releasing it on a Friday afternoon on the eve of football grand finals and a long weekend.

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8 Things You Need To Know About The IPCC 1.5˚C Report

World Resources Institute - Kelly Levin

While all countries committed under the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5˚C-2˚C (2.7-3.6˚ F), major questions remained: How can the world achieve this temperature goal? And what happens if it doesn’t?
The world’s leading climate scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), answered these questions and more in their latest report released today. Nearly 100 scientists analyzed how the world can achieve the 1.5˚C goal, as well as impacts associated with this rise in temperature.

The world is way off track from its agreed-upon goal of limiting warming to 1.5˚C-2˚C (2.7-3.6˚ F). Photo by Chistopher Michel/Wikimedia Commons

Here are eight findings:

1. Limiting warming to 1.5˚C requires major and immediate transformation.
Global emissions were roughly 52 GtCO2e in 2016, and are projected to be 52-58 GtCO2e by 2030. Annual emissions need to be about half that (25-30 GtCO2e/yr on average) by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5˚C (with no or low overshoot). While it’s still technically feasible to avoid a 1.5˚C rise in temperature, behavior and technologies will need to shift across the board in order to achieve these emissions reductions. For example, by 2050, renewables are projected to supply 70-85 percent of electricity in 1.5˚C pathways. Energy efficiency and fuel-switching measures will be critical for the transportation sector. Reducing energy demand and improving the efficiency of food production, changing dietary choices and reducing food loss and waste also have significant potential to reduce emissions.

The report also highlights how ambitious climate action brings many benefits for shared prosperity and economic stability — more jobs, increased energy access, access to sustainable transportation and health improvements, to name a few. There are also important trade-offs in the case of poorly designed policy.
And while not cited in the IPCC report, new analysis by the New Climate Economy found that bold climate action can deliver $26 trillion in economic benefits through 2030 (compared with business-as-usual) while generating more than 65 million jobs and avoiding more than 700,000 premature deaths from air pollution in 2030.

2. The scale of the required low-carbon transition is unprecedented
While there have been examples of rapid change in specific technologies or sectors in the past, there is no precedent in our documented history for the rate of change at the scale required for limiting warming to 1.5˚C.
In other words, we have never before witnessed such widespread, rapid transitions, and they will need to be made across energy, land, industrial, urban and other systems, as well as across technologies and geographies.
Making this monumental shift will require substantial new investments in low-carbon technologies and efficiency. The report finds that if the 1.5˚C goal is to be met, investments in low-carbon energy technology and energy efficiency will need increase by roughly a factor of five by 2050 compared to 2015 levels.

3. “Limiting warming to 1.5˚C” can mean different things—with different results.
The majority (81 out of 90) of the modeling scenarios for limiting warming to 1.5˚C exceed this temperature threshold before dropping back down.
The results of these scenarios are very different from those that never overshoot 1.5˚C. For example, consider the impacts of warming on a fragile ecosystem: If the 1.5˚C goal is exceeded for many years at a significantly higher temperature, irreversible impacts, such as species extinction, may result even if warming is eventually brought down to 1.5˚C.
The impacts of 1.5˚C of warming will also depend on the chosen emissions-reduction activities. For example, a more rapid reduction of black carbon can help stem the loss of snow and ice in the Arctic.
Furthermore, it is important to note that the 1.5˚C goal is for global average temperature increase. Temperature increase at any one location, as well as its resultant impacts, will vary.

4. A 1.5˚C limit to warming is not safe for all…
The report finds that significant climate impacts already occur at 1.5˚C, especially in regards to low-lying areas, human health and oceans. The impacts will hit the poor and most vulnerable the hardest due to loss of livelihoods, food insecurity, population displacement, health effects and more.

5. …but risks associated with warming are substantially lower at 1.5˚C than 2˚C
Because the Paris Agreement specifies that countries should “limit warming to well below 2˚C, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5˚C,” the IPCC report takes stock of how much higher the risks of a 2˚C world are than 1.5˚C. For example, under 1.5°C of warming, the report finds it is very likely to have one sea-ice-free summer every 100 years; at 2°C, the frequency increases to at least one every 10 years. (Read more in our accompanying blog comparing the impacts of 1.5˚C vs 2˚C.)

6. Emissions will need to reach net-zero around mid-century.
In addition to large emissions cuts in the next decade, net CO2 emissions will on average need to be reduced to zero by mid-century. If the date of reaching net-zero emissions is brought forward one decade to 2040—fewer than 15 years away—the chance of limiting warming to 1.5˚C is considerably higher. The sooner emissions peak before 2030 and the lower the level at which they do so, the less daunting the challenges will be.
All pollutants leading to climate change must be addressed. The report notes the critical role of short-lived but highly potent climate pollutants, such as methane and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). While carbon dioxide dominates long-term warming, reduction of other pollutants can contribute to the 1.5˚C goal in the short term, with substantial co-benefits, such as reducing air pollution.

7. All 1.5˚C emissions pathways rely upon carbon removal to some extent.
The report shows clearly that we will need to focus efforts not only on reducing emissions, but also removing and storing carbon from the atmosphere. Carbon removal is necessary for both moving to net-zero emissions and for producing net-negative emissions to compensate for any overshoot of 1.5˚C. The pathways studied in the report rely on different levels of carbon removal (ranging from 100-1,000 GtCO2 over the 21st century for scenarios with limited or no overshoot), but all rely on it to some extent. The report notes that carbon removal deployed at such a scale is unproven, and is a major risk to our ability to limit warming to 1.5˚C.The report also notes that feasibility and sustainability of carbon removal could be enhanced if a portfolio of carbon-removal approaches is pursued.

8. Everyone – countries, cities, the private sector, individuals — will need to strengthen their action, without delay.
Without transformation in society and rapid implementation of ambitious emissions cuts, limiting warming to 1.5˚C while achieving sustainable development will be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible. Even if countries fulfill their current national climate goals and make deep emissions cuts after 2030, warming would still very likely exceed 1.5˚C given the challenges associated with dropping emissions to net-zero in less than 15 years’ time. Therefore, all countries and non-state actors will need to strengthen their contributions without delay. The COP decision at Paris requested countries to submit a next set of climate commitments by 2020, so this is an important opportunity to take bolder action. At the Global Climate Action Summit last month, leaders from states and regions, cities, businesses and civil society reinforced that messaging, calling on countries to “step up ambition” and commit to strengthening their national climate plans during the UN climate summit this December in Katowice, Poland.

Turning Evidence into Action
There’s no sugarcoating it: Keeping warming to 1.5˚C will be hard. Really hard. But the IPCC report also makes it clear that the world has the scientific understanding, the technological capacity and the financial means to tackle climate change. Now what we need is the political will to precipitate the unprecedented concerted actions necessary to stabilize temperature rise below 1.5 C.
There are substantial economic and development benefits from bold climate action. And even more importantly, limiting global warming to 1.5˚ is imperative. Falling short would lock in climate impacts so catastrophic our world would be unrecognizable. Governments, businesses and others have the clarity they need. Now it’s time for them to step up to the challenge.

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Coal Power Finished By 2050 If Temperature Increase Kept To 1.5 Degrees: IPCC

AFR - Ben Potter

The special report by the International Panel on Climate Change lays out a stark challenge to the coal industry if the world is to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees. Fairfax Media

Coal power would have to be eliminated or reduced to negligible levels and agriculture and land use changed dramatically for the world to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a landmark report says.
The special report by the International Panel on Climate Change lays out a stark challenge to the coal industry if the world is to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees - the aspirational level that nations agreed to pursue in addition to their individual national targets in the Paris climate agreement.
Australian pure coal exporters such as Whitehaven Coal, Yancoal and New Hope Corporation base their outlooks on International Energy Agency "New Policies" scenarios which allow for modest increases in global coal exports out to 2040, with larger increases in their primary Asian markets.
The Morrison government embraces these projections which make for a bullish outlook for the Australian coal export industry, and has abandoned carbon emissions reduction as a goal of energy policy. Coal companies are enjoying bumper profits and surging share prices off the back of high prices and strong demand from Asia.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Monday that Australia would stick with its primary Paris commitment - to reduce carbon emissions by 26-28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 - but would not give any more money to a global climate fund that aims to help the world's poorest countries cope with the effects of climate change.

Pressure mounts
But the government is about to come under increasing international pressure to take more effective action to limit climate change and the IPCC report is a key step leading up to the United Nations climate conference in Poland in December at which Australia and other laggard countries will be pressed to raise the level of their ambition.
The benign scenarios for coal exports that the government and the coal industry prefer are associated with higher temperature increases that scientists say would bring more frequent instances of dangerous heat, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones and irreversible damage to coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef.
Forerunners were seen in the northern hemisphere summer with wildfires in the Arctic, Europe and California and near-50 degree temperatures in southern Europe and California.

Extreme weather and coral bleaching would occur more frequently under 2 degrees Celsius of global warming compared to 1.5 degrees Celsius. ACF et al.

By contrast, the IPCC report says that in order to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees - a level scientists say would bring fewer dangerous climate changes and events - "the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0% (0-2%) of electricity". It notes this finding is one in which it has "high confidence".
Carbon emissions would need to be reduced by 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030 and to around net zero by 2050. These are much more ambitious than the government's target and more in line with the policy federal Labor took to the 2016 election but is yet to confirm as 2019 election policy.

Gas would need CCS
Renewable energy would supply 70-85 per cent of electricity and gas - another strong export industry for Australia - would supply 8 per cent of electricity when coupled with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS has been demonstrated technically but its cost is prohibitive and no commercial rollouts on existing thermal power stations have resulted from trials conducted in the US, Canada, Australia and China.

Limiting temeperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius will cause less damage to the Great Barrier Reef. Pictured: Green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) resting on sandy seabed, Great Barrier Reef, UNESCO World Heritage Site, Pacific, Australia Alamy

Agriculture would be challenged by increasing competition for land for biofuels and reafforestation, which would need to be part of the global effort to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. "Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements," the IPCC report says.
Transport would have to move from 5 per cent low emissions fuel in 2020 to 35-65 per cent - a particular challenge for Australia which lags other rich countries in electric vehicle takeup.

Limiting temeperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require much steeper reductions in carbon emissions. Climate Analytics

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