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The yellowfever mosquito Aedes aegypti.
PHIL/CDC
PHIL, CDC
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Scientists and public health officials have documented an increasing
number of outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses across the globe in
recent years, including yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika.
Now, an international team of researchers has found that by 2050, two key disease-spreading mosquitoes — Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus — will significantly expand their range, posing a threat to 49 percent of the world’s population.
“If no action is taken to reduce the current rate at which the climate is warming, pockets of habitat will open up across many urban areas with vast amounts of individuals susceptible to infection,” said Moritz Kraemer, an infectious disease scientist at Boston Children’s Hospital and the University of Oxford and a co-author of the new research, published in the journal Nature Microbiology,.
The researchers analyzed historical distribution data from more than 3,000 locations in Europe and the United States, dating back to the 1970s.
They then modelled future distribution using projections for climate change, urbanization, and human migration and travel. Kraemer and his colleagues found that in the last five years, Aedes aegypti has spread northward in the U.S. at about 150 miles per year.
In Europe, Aedes albopictus has spread at a rate of 93 miles per year.
The scientists also found that within the next 5 to 15 years, human
travel and migration will be the largest factors driving the spread of
mosquitoes. After that, however, climate change and accelerating
urbanization will create new mosquito habitats. Aedes aegypti
could reach as far north as Chicago and Shanghai by 2050.
However, the species will likely decline in parts of the southern U.S. and Eastern Europe, which are expected to become more arid as global temperatures rise.
Aedes albopictus, on the other hand, is forecast to spread widely throughout Europe over the next 30 years, as well as establish small populations in parts of the northern U.S. and the highland regions of South America and East Africa.
Links
Now, an international team of researchers has found that by 2050, two key disease-spreading mosquitoes — Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus — will significantly expand their range, posing a threat to 49 percent of the world’s population.
“If no action is taken to reduce the current rate at which the climate is warming, pockets of habitat will open up across many urban areas with vast amounts of individuals susceptible to infection,” said Moritz Kraemer, an infectious disease scientist at Boston Children’s Hospital and the University of Oxford and a co-author of the new research, published in the journal Nature Microbiology,.
The researchers analyzed historical distribution data from more than 3,000 locations in Europe and the United States, dating back to the 1970s.
They then modelled future distribution using projections for climate change, urbanization, and human migration and travel. Kraemer and his colleagues found that in the last five years, Aedes aegypti has spread northward in the U.S. at about 150 miles per year.
In Europe, Aedes albopictus has spread at a rate of 93 miles per year.
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These maps show the predicted global ranges of Aedes aegypti
(above) and Aedes albopictus (below) in 2050 assuming a 'medium'
climate scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2080 and then
begin to decline. The darker areas have the highest predicted
prevalence of mosquitos.
Moritz Kraemer for Nature Microbiology
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However, the species will likely decline in parts of the southern U.S. and Eastern Europe, which are expected to become more arid as global temperatures rise.
Aedes albopictus, on the other hand, is forecast to spread widely throughout Europe over the next 30 years, as well as establish small populations in parts of the northern U.S. and the highland regions of South America and East Africa.
Links
- Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus
- Australia is not prepared for climate change health impacts
- Climate Change & Health In Australia (pdf)
- Climate change challenges to health: Risks and opportunities
- Climate change and health
- The Silent Killer: Climate Change and the Health Impacts
- Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health in Australia
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