01/10/2019

We Fact Checked Scott Morrison's Speech To The United Nations. Here's What We Found

RMIT ABC Fact Check - Josh Gordon

Scott Morrison addresses the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly. (Reuters: Lucas Jackson)
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has taken to the international stage to hammer the message that Australia is "taking real action on climate change and we are getting results".
In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Mr Morrison accused domestic and global critics of ignoring Australia's achievements in tackling climate change, complaining that "the facts simply don't fit the narrative they wish to project about our contribution".
RMIT ABC Fact Check has previously analysed Australia's record when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Here is our take on some of the key claims made by Mr Morrison in his speech.

Climate change action
"Australia is taking real action on climate change and we are getting results."
Scott Morrison

Fact check: Emissions 'deficit'
As Fact Check noted in April, emissions under the Coalition have risen for four of the past five years, and are higher today than they were in 2013.
Between 2008 and 2013 emissions trended down. But from 2014, following the repeal of Labor's carbon tax, emissions have generally risen.
In 2018, Australia produced 534 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, up 4.3 per cent from 512 million tonnes produced in 2013.
According to the most recent official forecasts, annual emissions will reach 540 million tonnes in 2020.
As Fact Check has previously noted, the Coalition's "Direct Action" emissions reduction fund has played a positive, albeit modest, part in keeping a lid on emissions.

Kyoto commitments
"By 2020, Australia will have overachieved on our Kyoto commitments, reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 367 million tonnes more than required to meet our 2020 Kyoto target."
Scott Morrison
The second Kyoto target, negotiated in Doha, Qatar in 2012, requires Australia to cut emissions to 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020.
Then UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon addresses the 2012 climate change conference in Doha. (Reuters: Fadi Al-Assaad)
A simple calculation, then, would suggest emissions would need to be no more than 524 million tonnes in 2020 to reach this target.
However, the Department of the Environment and Energy has taken a more complicated approach, creating an "emissions budget" for the period 2013 to 2020.
The cumulative effect of this emissions budget is that Australia is limited to emitting almost 4.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in total over the eight years up to and including 2020.
In terms of achieving the 2020 target, what matters — as the department sees it — is whether cumulative actual emissions between 2013 and 2020 turn out to be 4.5 billion tonnes or lower.
As previously noted, in recent years emissions have been trending up under the Coalition's watch. However, Australia is still likely to beat the cumulative emissions target for two main reasons.
First, emissions in the early years of the second Kyoto period turned out to be lower than expected, particularly following the introduction of Labor's carbon tax, which came into effect in July 2012, and was repealed in July 2014.

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions: the view from 2012
Source: Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
Australia's greenhouse gas emissions: the view from 2018
Source: Department of Environment and Energy

Second, the Doha climate conference agreed that countries that completed the first Kyoto period with surplus emissions credits could carry those credits over into the second Kyoto period if necessary.
While a number of countries voluntarily relinquished these excess credits, Australia put the "carry-over" from the over-achievement of the first Kyoto period at 128 million tonnes.
As a consequence, the department has estimated Australia will have reduced its emissions by some 376 million tonnes more than required over the eight years to 2020, thereby meeting its Kyoto obligations. This is consistent with Mr Morrison's claim.
But Australia's success has had little to do with Coalition policies. Rather, it reflects an accounting assumption allowing the carryover of emissions and emissions reductions achieved during the early years of the second Kyoto period.

Emissions per capita and emissions intensity
"Our latest estimates show both emissions per person and the emissions intensity of the economy are at their lowest levels in 29 years."
Scott Morrison
This is correct. Because Australia's population has been increasing, emissions per capita have been falling, and are currently at the lowest levels since 1990.
Likewise, the "emissions intensity" of the economy — measured by calculating emissions per dollar of real GDP.

Emissions per capita and per dollar of real GDP (2016-17 prices)
Year to December
Emissions per capita and per dollar of real GDP emissions have been coming down in Australia.
Source: Department of Environment and Energy
Credit: RMIT ABC Fact Check
However, these two measures are not particularly meaningful.
As experts have previously told Fact Check, what counts as far as the Earth's atmosphere — and international agreements — are concerned is the total level of emissions.
As Dr Hugh Saddler, an honorary associate professor at ANU's Crawford School of Public Policy put it:
"The atmosphere doesn't care how many people are contributing to emissions; it's the total quantity of emissions that matters."
Moreover, while Australia's emissions per capita have fallen, they remain among the highest in the world.

Electricity sector
Hazelwood power station in the La Trobe Valley in Victoria's south-east. (AAP: Greenpeace)
"Australia's electricity sector is producing less emissions. In the year to March 2019, emissions from Australia's electricity sector were 15.7 per cent lower than the peak recorded in the year to June 2009."
Scott Morrison
This is correct, but it has little to do with the policies of the Morrison Government. Using the raw data (which is not adjusted to account for seasonal variations), Australia's electricity sector produced 178.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the 12 months to March 2019.
This was, as Mr Morrison points out, 15.7 per cent lower than the 211.3 million tonnes produced over the year to June 2009.
(If the seasonally adjusted, "weather normalised" data is used, the decline is even bigger).
As previously noted by Fact Check, the fall in electricity sector emissions was the result of rising wholesale prices for electricity, the closure of big, ageing coal-fired power stations in Victoria (Hazelwood) and South Australia (Northern and Playford), and surging investment in renewable energy.

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