Lethal Heating: 04/05/19

05/04/2019

Hopes Emerge For A 'Great Era Of Bipartisanship' On Clean Energy Policy

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

In the wake of last month's re-election of Gladys Berejiklian's Liberal-led government, prospects have brightened for a sudden - and even surprising - narrowing of the gap between state and federal energy policy.
The elevation of Rob Stokes to head the key Planning & Industry cluster brings to the fore a Minister known for his support of renewable energy.
Having Matt Kean - the head of the dominant moderate faction - run the cluster's Energy and Environment portfolio, will bring political nous to Stokes' intellectual clout, a senior NSW Liberal source says.

Sunset on the climate wars? State and federal energy policies could soon be more coordinated than they have been for decades. Credit: Sitthixay Ditthavong

"A great era of bipartisanship" is possible, this source says - provided Labor takes over in Canberra.
NSW's position at COAG Energy Council will more closely resemble those of other Liberal-led states of South Australia and Tasmania where renewable energy dominates their electricity supplies.
In fact, the NSW government has been distancing itself from the federal Coalition for some time.
Don Harwin, Kean's predecessor as Energy Minister, publicly clashed with his federal counterpart prior to Christmas, calling for an end to the "climate wars" at a COAG meeting.
While some wondered if Harwin's outburst was a stunt - "he wasn't active on these issues at previous COAG events", one Labor-state participant said - his comments didn't go down well with conservative colleagues at home.
“The hard right went into a meltdown”, a senior government source says. “What about our base?”
According to the senior Liberal source, one consequence was that an internal truce was made, between the state and federal governments, and within the NSW Coalition.
One result was the Berejiklian government shelved plans for a bigger renewable energy announcement during its re-election campaign, apparently aimed for release around the Australia Day weekend.
Instead of taking to voters a policy closer to the Labor offering - such as the ALP plan to drive 7 gigawatts of new renewable capacity into NSW through reverse auction – the Berejiklian government promised much less.
The main offering was a no-interest loan scheme for as many as 300,000 households to buy solar panels and batteries over the next decade.
Another battle, though, was taking place out of view: resistance by NSW to a push by the Morrison government for a coal-fired power station in the state as part of its proposal to underwrite new electricity generation.
With the biggest population, big coal reserves, and an existing grid, NSW was the prime target. Securing support would also have given a shot in the arm for pro-coal Coalition MPs, especially those hailing from NSW.
Instead, the Berejiklian government rejected the plan, the senior Liberal source said. Minister Angus Taylor had to settle for a $10 million feasibility study for a plant in Queensland - also without support from that state's Labor government.
Minister Taylor's office rejects that, noting three of the 12 projects on the Underwriting New Generation Investments program are in NSW.
These include a minor revamp of the Vales Point coal-fired power station, a potential gas import facility at Port Kembla, and pumped hydro plant at Armidale.
Senior Liberals in NSW say further distancing between their position on climate change and renewable energy and those of their federal counterparts is likely. But don't expect them to become public until after the federal election.

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Australia’s 2018 Environmental Scorecard: A Dreadful Year That Demands Action

The Conversation - Albert Van Dijk | Shoshana Rapley*

Bushfires ravaged parts of central Queensland amid heatwaves in November 2018. QFES Media/AAP

Environmental news is rarely good. But even by those low standards, 2018 was especially bad. That is the main conclusion from Australia’s Environment in 2018, the latest in an annual series of environmental condition reports, released today.
Every year, we analyse vast amounts of measurements from satellites and on-ground stations using algorithms and prediction models on a supercomputer. These volumes of data are turned into regional summary accounts that can be explored on our Australian Environment Explorer website. We interpret these data, along with other information from national and international reports, to assess how our environment is tracking.

A bad year
Whereas 2017 was already quite bad, 2018 saw many indicators dip even further into the red.
Temperatures went up again, rainfall declined further, and the destruction of vegetation and ecosystems by drought, fire and land clearing continued. Soil moisture, rivers and wetlands all declined, and vegetation growth was poor.
In short, our environment took a beating in 2018, and that was even before the oppressive heatwaves, bushfires and Darling River fish kills of January 2019.

Indicators of Australia’s environment in 2018 compared with the previous year. Similar to national economic indicators, they provide a summary but also hide regional variations, complex interactions and long-term context. Source: http://www.ausenv.online/2018

The combined pressures from habitat destruction, climate change, and invasive pests and diseases are taking their toll on our unique plants and animals. Another 54 species were added to the official list of threatened species, which now stands at 1,775. That is 47% more than 18 years ago and puts Australia among the world’s worst performers in biodiversity protection. On the upside, the number of predator-proof islands or fenced-off reserves in Australia reached 188 in 2018, covering close to 2,500 square kilometres. They offer good prospects of saving at least 13 mammal species from extinction.
Globally, the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere accelerated again after slowing down in 2017. Global air and ocean temperatures remained high, sea levels increased further, and even the ozone hole grew again, after shrinking during the previous two years.
Sea surface temperatures around Australia did not increase in 2018, but they nevertheless were well above long-term averages. Surveys of the Great Barrier Reef showed further declining health across the entire reef. An exceptional heatwave in late 2018 in Far North Queensland raised fears for yet another bout of coral bleaching, but this was averted when sudden massive downpours cooled surface waters.
The hot conditions did cause much damage to wildlife and vegetation, however, with spectacled flying foxes dropping dead from trees and fire ravaging what was once a tropical rainforest.
While previous environmental scorecards showed a mixed bag of regional impacts, 2018 was a poor year in all states and territories. Particularly badly hit was New South Wales, where after a second year of very poor rainfall, ecosystems and communities reached crisis point. Least affected was southern Western Australia, which enjoyed relatively cool and wet conditions.

Environmental Condition Score in 2018 by state and territory, based on a combination of seven indicators. The large number is the score for 2017, the smaller number the change from the previous year.

Source: http://www.ausenv.online/2018

It was a poor year for nature and farmers alike, with growing conditions in grazing, irrigated agriculture and dryland cropping each declining by 17-20% at a national scale. The only upside was improved cropping conditions in WA, which mitigated the 34% decline elsewhere.

A bad start to 2019
Although it is too early for a full picture, the first months of 2019 continued as badly as 2018 ended. The 2018-19 summer broke heat records across the country by large margins, bushfires raged through Tasmania’s forests, and a sudden turn in the hot weather killed scores of fish in the Darling River. The monsoon in northern Australia did not come until late January, the latest in decades, but then dumped a huge amount of rain on northern Queensland, flooding vast swathes of land.
It would be comforting to believe that our environment merely waxes and wanes with rainfall, and is resilient to yearly variations. To some extent, this is true. The current year may still turn wet and improve conditions, although a developing El Niño makes this less likely.
However, while we are good at acknowledging rapid changes, we are terrible at recognising slow, long-term ones. Underlying the yearly variations in weather is an unmistakable pattern of environmental decline that threatens our future.

New South Wales was hit hard by drought in 2018. AAP Image/Perry Duffin

What can we do about it?
Global warming is already with us, and strong action is required to avoid an even more dire future of rolling heatwaves and year-round bushfires. But while global climate change requires global action, there is a lot we can and have to do ourselves.
Australia is one of the world’s most wasteful societies, and there are many opportunities to clean up our act. Achieving progress is not hard, and despite shrill protests from vested interests and the ideologically blind, taking action will not take away our prosperity. Home solar systems and more efficient transport can in fact save money. Our country has huge opportunities for renewable energy, which can potentially create thousands of jobs. Together, we can indeed reduce emissions “in a canter” – all it takes is some clear national leadership.
The ongoing destruction of natural vegetation is as damaging as it is unnecessary, and stopping it will bring a raft of benefits. Our rivers and wetlands are more than just a source of cheap irrigation for big businesses. With more effort, we can save many species from extinction. Our farmers play a vital role in caring for our country, and we need to support them better in doing so.
Our environment is our life support. It provides us our place to live, our food, health, livelihoods, culture and identity. To protect it is to protect ourselves.

*Shoshana Rapley is an ANU honours student and research assistant in the Fenner School of Environment and Society.

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2018 Was Boom Year For Renewables Despite Political Chaos, Report Finds

The Guardian - Katharine Murphy

Clean Energy Australia snapshot shows investment in large-scale projects has doubled to $20bn

A windfarm near Burra in South Australia. The energy industry report card shows that Australia’s large scale renewable target will be met ahead of time. Photograph: Angela Harper/AAP

Despite Canberra remaining locked in ongoing partisan war about emissions reductions, and Malcolm Turnbull losing the prime ministership after a conflagration about energy policy, 2018 was a boom year for renewable energy, according to the latest Clean Energy Australia report.
The new assessment, to be released Thursday, finds the amount of renewable energy capacity committed in Australia during 2018 increased 260% on 2017, with 14.8 GW underway in 2018 compared to 5.6 GW in 2017.
The upbeat industry report card comes as the energy minister Angus Taylor will tell parliament on Thursday that Australia’s 2020 large scale renewable energy target of 33,000 GWh will be met ahead of time.
Taylor will report that approximately 5.2 gigawatts of new renewable capacity was added during 2018, and also cite forecasts from the Clean Energy Regulator predicting an increase to at least 6.5 gigawatts in 2019, with the trend likely to persist in 2020 and 2021.
Guardian Australia understands the energy minister will note that large-scale generation certificate prices have crashed from around $85 a year ago to $34 today, reducing subsidies by 60%, which has a positive impact on consumer power bills.

The new Clean Energy Australia snapshot says renewables generated 7,000 jobs since 2017, with investment in large-scale renewable energy doubling to $20bn. Renewable energy generation now comprises 21% of the market, which is a record share.
The report says more than 2m households now have rooftop solar, and the installed capacity of household solar has now topped 8.1 GW, which is four times the capacity of the ageing Liddell power plant in New South Wales.
It says the top three postcodes with the highest uptake of rooftop solar are Bundaberg, Hervey Bay and Toowoomba – in National party heartland.
The chief executive of the Clean Energy Council, Kane Thornton, noted while the industry was going gangbusters, “unfortunately, the politics around energy reached another new low in 2018, with the federal government opting to tear itself apart rather than implement its own national energy guarantee”.
Thornton said while the coming federal election would create another pivotal year for clean energy in Australia, “we have thankfully reached a point where politics isn’t as existential to the industry as it once was”.
The upbeat trends in renewables comes as the Australian Energy Market Commission will report on Thursday that Australia’s energy grid is meeting consumers’ needs, but also note the energy market operator is intervening more frequently to preserve the stability of the network.
The AEMC says the switch in the mix in favour of cleaner and greener technologies is a structural change that is putting pressure on power system security and reliability. The new report notes system security–related costs are a relatively small proportion of a customer’s total bill, “however, these costs are increasing, with potential flow-through effects to consumer bills in coming years”.
While the AEMC is concerned about a looming crunch point, with the upcoming retirement of thermal coal power stations across the eastern seaboard and deteriorating system strength, the energy market operator has already declared the future of power generation in Australia will be renewables with storage, and gas, with those technologies able to replace the power currently supplied by coal generators at least cost.
In its integrated system plan released last year, the Australian Energy Market Operator plan noted that 30% of Australia’s coal generators will approach the end of their technical life over the next two decades. It said it was important to avoid premature departures if the looming transition in the national energy market was to be orderly.
But Aemo said the lowest-cost replacement options for retiring coal plants “will be a portfolio of resources, including solar (28GW), wind (10.5 GW) and storage (17 GW and 90 GWh), complemented by 500 MW of flexible gas plant and transmission investment”.
The energy market operator concluded that mix of generation can produce 90 terawatt hours of energy per annum, “more than offsetting the energy lost from retiring coal-fired generation”, also noting that transmission infrastructure would need to be reinforced to ensure the grid performs optimally after the shift.

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