Lethal Heating: 10/01/19

01/10/2019

We Fact Checked Scott Morrison's Speech To The United Nations. Here's What We Found

RMIT ABC Fact Check - Josh Gordon

Scott Morrison addresses the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly. (Reuters: Lucas Jackson)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has taken to the international stage to hammer the message that Australia is "taking real action on climate change and we are getting results".

In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Mr Morrison accused domestic and global critics of ignoring Australia's achievements in tackling climate change, complaining that "the facts simply don't fit the narrative they wish to project about our contribution".
RMIT ABC Fact Check has previously analysed Australia's record when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Here is our take on some of the key claims made by Mr Morrison in his speech.

Climate change action

"Australia is taking real action on climate change and we are getting results."
Scott Morrison

Fact check: Emissions 'deficit'

Energy Minister Angus Taylor says the Coalition inherited a 755 million tonne emissions "deficit" when it came to office, and that it had since been turned around by 1.1 billion tonnes. Fact Check finds that to be misleading.

As Fact Check noted in April, emissions under the Coalition have risen for four of the past five years, and are higher today than they were in 2013.
Between 2008 and 2013 emissions trended down. But from 2014, following the repeal of Labor's carbon tax, emissions have generally risen.
In 2018, Australia produced 534 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, up 4.3 per cent from 512 million tonnes produced in 2013.
According to the most recent official forecasts, annual emissions will reach 540 million tonnes in 2020.
As Fact Check has previously noted, the Coalition's "Direct Action" emissions reduction fund has played a positive, albeit modest, part in keeping a lid on emissions.

Kyoto commitments

"By 2020, Australia will have overachieved on our Kyoto commitments, reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 367 million tonnes more than required to meet our 2020 Kyoto target."
Scott Morrison

The second Kyoto target, negotiated in Doha, Qatar in 2012, requires Australia to cut emissions to 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020.

Then UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon addresses the 2012 climate change conference in Doha. (Reuters: Fadi Al-Assaad)

A simple calculation, then, would suggest emissions would need to be no more than 524 million tonnes in 2020 to reach this target.
However, the Department of the Environment and Energy has taken a more complicated approach, creating an "emissions budget" for the period 2013 to 2020.
The cumulative effect of this emissions budget is that Australia is limited to emitting almost 4.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in total over the eight years up to and including 2020.
In terms of achieving the 2020 target, what matters — as the department sees it — is whether cumulative actual emissions between 2013 and 2020 turn out to be 4.5 billion tonnes or lower.
As previously noted, in recent years emissions have been trending up under the Coalition's watch. However, Australia is still likely to beat the cumulative emissions target for two main reasons.
First, emissions in the early years of the second Kyoto period turned out to be lower than expected, particularly following the introduction of Labor's carbon tax, which came into effect in July 2012, and was repealed in July 2014.

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions: the view from 2012

Source: Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions: the view from 2018

Source: Department of Environment and Energy

Second, the Doha climate conference agreed that countries that completed the first Kyoto period with surplus emissions credits could carry those credits over into the second Kyoto period if necessary.
While a number of countries voluntarily relinquished these excess credits, Australia put the "carry-over" from the over-achievement of the first Kyoto period at 128 million tonnes.
As a consequence, the department has estimated Australia will have reduced its emissions by some 376 million tonnes more than required over the eight years to 2020, thereby meeting its Kyoto obligations. This is consistent with Mr Morrison's claim.
But Australia's success has had little to do with Coalition policies. Rather, it reflects an accounting assumption allowing the carryover of emissions and emissions reductions achieved during the early years of the second Kyoto period.

Emissions per capita and emissions intensity

"Our latest estimates show both emissions per person and the emissions intensity of the economy are at their lowest levels in 29 years."
Scott Morrison

This is correct. Because Australia's population has been increasing, emissions per capita have been falling, and are currently at the lowest levels since 1990.
Likewise, the "emissions intensity" of the economy — measured by calculating emissions per dollar of real GDP.

Emissions per capita and per dollar of real GDP (2016-17 prices)
Year to December

Emissions per capita and per dollar of real GDP emissions have been coming down in Australia.
Source: Department of Environment and Energy
Credit: RMIT ABC Fact Check

However, these two measures are not particularly meaningful.
As experts have previously told Fact Check, what counts as far as the Earth's atmosphere — and international agreements — are concerned is the total level of emissions.
As Dr Hugh Saddler, an honorary associate professor at ANU's Crawford School of Public Policy put it:
"The atmosphere doesn't care how many people are contributing to emissions; it's the total quantity of emissions that matters."
Moreover, while Australia's emissions per capita have fallen, they remain among the highest in the world.

Electricity sector

Hazelwood power station in the La Trobe Valley in Victoria's south-east. (AAP: Greenpeace)

"Australia's electricity sector is producing less emissions. In the year to March 2019, emissions from Australia's electricity sector were 15.7 per cent lower than the peak recorded in the year to June 2009."
Scott Morrison

This is correct, but it has little to do with the policies of the Morrison Government. Using the raw data (which is not adjusted to account for seasonal variations), Australia's electricity sector produced 178.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the 12 months to March 2019.
This was, as Mr Morrison points out, 15.7 per cent lower than the 211.3 million tonnes produced over the year to June 2009.
(If the seasonally adjusted, "weather normalised" data is used, the decline is even bigger).
As previously noted by Fact Check, the fall in electricity sector emissions was the result of rising wholesale prices for electricity, the closure of big, ageing coal-fired power stations in Victoria (Hazelwood) and South Australia (Northern and Playford), and surging investment in renewable energy.

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Some Of Australia's Migrant Communities Say They Feel Left Out Of Climate Conversation

SBS - Omar Dabbagh

Action on climate change is an at-times emotionally-charged issue. But there are some communities in Australia who say they feel left out of the discussion entirely.

At a Uniting Church in the inner-west Sydney suburb of Strathfield, a multi-faith meeting is being held between local leaders, representing Buddhist, Christian, Hindu and Muslim communities in the area.
These leaders are united over the main item on their agenda: global warming.
Each person is passionate about reducing Australia’s carbon footprint and explaining why to influential members in their respective communities.
“It is very important because it is for the future of our kids,” says mother-of-three Fadila Al Battat.
“We have to start thinking and seriously.”

Voices for Power was launched in 2017 to engage with migrant communities on climate change. SBS News/Omar Dabbagh

The catch-ups are led by activist group Sydney Alliance. Its ‘Voices for Power’ project, aimed at engaging migrant communities on climate change, has been running for two years.
“These communities have a lot of power here,” says project co-lead Thuy Lin Nguyen.
“Organised communities have a lot of ideas, but they also have a lot of, I guess, sway, because they're not the usual suspects.”

Not just a 'middle-class, white person issue'
Action on climate change has been front and centre in recent weeks.
Last week, 300,000 people took to the streets across Australia, joining millions worldwide in a global strike calling for world leaders to do more.
Asha Ramzan, CEO of charity Sydney Community Forum, believes there is a lack of diversity and representation in the climate change conversation. She says some communities are only now being consulted on the subject by stakeholder groups and the government
“I think our communities are rarely asked, they're rarely listened to, and not enough space is created for them to actually express themselves in a way they feel comfortable and safe,” Ms Ramzan said.
“All of us have a responsibility, and all of us bring really strong perspectives about why it matters.
“And we believe it's really important for almost a third of the population who are recent migrants to be at the centre of this because they will also make a difference in changing policy.”
“Climate change is not a middle class, white person issue. It is an issue confronting everyone,” Ms Nguyen said.
“And if you just engage these communities in a way that they understand, they are on board. They will be there in solidarity with you. They will lead the charge.”

Community and religious leaders say some Australians are being excluded from the climate change conversation. SBS News/Omar Dabbagh

Dr Yadu Singh, President of the NSW Federation of Indian Associations, believes his community has been completely ignored – and remains ‘hidden’ from the conversation.
“This whole climate change agenda has been, to some extent, hijacked by a particular section of the community. Nobody seems to care about what we think,” he said.
“I think the multicultural communities have been hidden.”
Reverend Alimoni Taumoepeau from the Strathfield-Homebush Uniting Church agrees.
“We are a minority, and sometimes we are classified as people who don't stand up in terms of social-political issues, like climate change,” he said.
“It's important to raise the awareness of the communities, and that's a challenge for us. But also to remind them that they have a voice, you know they don't need to be quiet about it, they don't need to put it away, they need to raise it because their voices are as important as anyone else.”

The Federation of Indian Associations NSW say climate change isn't always top priority for new arrivals. SBS News/Omar Dabbagh

Dr Singh says while combating climate change is important for many Australian-Indians, it might not be the top priority for some recent arrivals.
"Even though we care about the planet's health, we are new migrants,” he said.
"In fact, more than 50 per cent of our people have come in the last ten years to this country, so we have to worry about other things such as housing, education of the kids, employment."
Sheikh Adid Alrubai from the Muhajirin Association says such a sentiment is often echoed by older migrants too. But, with younger generations leading calls for greater climate action - particularly seen at the recent climate marches - he says elders are taking notice.
“The Muslim community and Arab community in general, they are not engaged very well in the climate change issue,” Sheikh Adid said.
“But because of their children going to the unis and they understand what climate means. So they understand that the future is in real danger - severe danger.”

Concerns over protests
But while for many people, protest is how they make themselves heard over climate change, for other Australians - particularly from certain cultural groups - demonstrating isn't something they feel comfortable doing.
Subhash Rughani, Voices for Power co-chair and an active member of south Sydney’s Indian community, says many people are hesitant to participate due to safety concerns - having grown up in countries where any form of public dissent was violently stifled by authorities.
“The background is that they're not used to being in a situation of protesting, or going out in marches and so on because of the background. There are safety issues there,” Mr Rughani said.
“There's always that thought 'what if somebody catches us' or tries to take us away, and we have to build trust all the way through.”

Faith and climate intertwined
Sheikh Ahmad Abdo says an understanding of climate change is being cultivated with Australian Muslims through scripture.
“Muslims have been campaigning for the better of our environment for the last 1,400 years. The fifth word that was revealed initially of the Qur’an, which is the holy book of the Muslims, was ‘creation’,” he said.
“We've got a concept that's deeply rooted in our faith and one that talks about the natural pattern in creation. And we are called as human beings to be stewards, custodians of this earth.”

Sheikh Ahmad Abdo says Muslims have "a deeply invested responsibility to take care" of the planet. SBS News/Omar Dabbagh

Vithal Maddala from the Federation of Indian Associations NSW says the connection between culture and climate is intertwined across communities.
“We're actually big believers of nature. So nature is central to our culture,” he said.
“But over the years, what has happened, we've actually detached ourselves from our roots. So we so caught up in all this mechanical life, so we don't really think about going back to our roots.”
Ms Ramzan says differing views on action on climate change are shaped by a variety of backgrounds and beliefs, and only by listening to each other can Australia one day become united.
“We strengthen each other, and together we are stronger, and together we feel that we have the power to make change and influence and shape decisions,” she said.

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Our Young Girls Are Bearing The Burden Of Climate Action. But Should They Be?

Quartz - Juliana Sohn

Kids are marching for our mistakes.

On the morning of Sept. 20, seven students walked out of my son’s eighth grade class to attend the climate strike. He was the only male.
I met him in downtown Manhattan, and together we made our way to Foley Square to join the throng of climate protesters.
Right away, it was evident that this march, like many of the previous youth-led marches my son and I had attended together, was largely made up of diverse young women.
He and I had rallied together for the gun control march at Washington Square Park on the anniversary of the 1999 Columbine High School shooting. We got on a 5:00 am bus to Washington, DC to attend the March for Our Lives protest organized by the teens who survived the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida.
My son Emmett is a sensitive boy. He wants to physically be present for these marches but he’s too shy to chant or wave a sign. He insists he doesn’t want to lead, he just wants to be counted.
That’s okay, and he’s not alone. Because while there are boys and young men who attend and lead these rallies, I have found that the most energized, motivated, passionate, and strongest voices are coming from young women, often young women of color.

© Juliana Sohn

And rightfully so, since racial minority groups are more likely to be impacted by climate change, not least because their neighborhoods are often built in more vulnerable and compromised locations, where they are exposed to changing weather and dangerous environmental conditions.
Finding myself surrounded by so many diverse students at youth protests is especially inspiring for me. I often find myself to be the only woman of color at local political action meetings or when I attend volunteer events. I hoped that this meant things are changing.
Walking around the climate protests that day, I decided to take photographs of these girls protesting, so their participation could be documented and shared.
“This land is indigenous land,” one sign reminded me.

© Juliana Sohn

The next generations of activism has a chance to be shaped by these multiple viewpoints—but only if we are willing to listen to everyone’s voice.

Young activism
The word “protest” is inherently confrontational. But what I feel at these marches is solidarity. Everyone is there for a united purpose. When the crowds are as massive as they were that Friday, it’s reassuring to know that you are not alone in your fight. Every few steps, we encountered a different cluster of kids, some with coordinated signs and matching bandanas, some wearing their school uniforms.

© Juliana Sohn

I saw a large crowd gathered around to watch a Native American group as they performed a dance. Protest signs have become a vehicle for showcasing one’s individuality, one’s pain, a witty message, to display your anger for all to see, maybe to be photographed and posted to social media.
Some of the most devastating signs read like indictments:
“You’ll die of old age. Our children will die of climate change!”
“I can’t believe I’m marching for facts!”
“Don’t burn my future!”
“We’re all gonna die!”

© Juliana Sohn

Young children holding up misspelled signs written in their childish scrawl, pleading for change, will always undo me.

© Juliana Sohn

Who inherits the burden?
As proud and impressed as I am at the conviction of these young activists that brought so many of them down to City Hall that day, Greta Thunberg is right: These kids should be in school. They should not be out on the streets demanding that our governments and leaders believe scientific facts and put the environment over capital gains.

It’s a lot of responsibility we have placed on these young people. I am guiltily reminded of a conversation I had with a 12-year-old girl named Charlotte two years ago as part of my photographic series Twelve, which documents 12-year-old girls growing up in New York City. We were discussing the history-changing activism of the Parkland teens, and I asked if she felt she, too, could make a difference.

“What they are doing is incredible, but if I were to do that I’d need a bit more time because that takes a lot of courage and other emotions that may be too hard for someone younger to grasp right now,” Charlotte told me. “A 12-yearold girl in her school can’t do anything about things that grown men and women are trying to do and can’t succeed at. So, I definitely sometimes do feel really helpless.”
I told Charlotte that she has more power as a 12-year-old than she realized, and that she didn’t have to feel helpless. In some situations, she had more of a chance of being listened to than I had as an adult, I told her. Sometimes a youthful voice can cut through the din of angry adults because it is so unexpected. I encouraged her to believe that she, too, could make a difference right now, if that was important to her.

I still believe that; that we all have the ability to enact change and have impact, at any age. But I worry that we have unfairly shifted much of our own burden of demanding action onto the shoulders of children, because they are newsworthy and trending on social media.

At the climate march, I saw photographers and videographers everywhere taking pictures and interviewing young children, asking them their thoughts on climate change. It made me uneasy. In my head, I weighed the pros and cons of this kind of attention and scrutiny, cognizant of the fact that I, too, was adding to it. I didn’t have an answer.
I knew I was there to support the students, and to help amplify their voices, but I couldn’t vouch for everyone else. Many of the middle school students had traveled to the protest with groups of friends straight from school, which meant that many were there without their parents or an adult.

I was photographing what looked like a group of 11-year-old girls when all of a sudden they were pounced upon by a woman who handed each of them a logoed t-shirt. The girls quickly pulled the tees on over their own clothes, and the woman photographed them posing, promoting her brand.
I felt protective and dismayed. I walked over to two of the girls after, and asked them, “Do you know what this organization is? Who runs it? What they stand for?” I warned them, “Be careful who and what you support. This is your face you are putting behind their brand.”
I don’t want to believe that some adults or companies are so cynical as to use these rallies as opportunities to further their own interests. But it reminded me again just how young these activists are. And while they are heroic and to be admired, we adults need to ensure they are protected.

Climate activism is diverse and female-centric
Of course, we were all there because of a 16-year-old, Swedish activist Thunberg. She has managed to stand out and command so much attention because she has a singular voice. Her clarity of language and her habit of unflinchingly calling out billionaire CEOs for their greed has made her a hero to adults and children alike. Thunberg doesn’t plead or ask politely for change. She challenges, she scolds, she accuses. She is clearly pissed off and she isn’t afraid to show it.
She doesn’t talk about policy or suggest new solutions. That’s a job for the adults. She refers back to facts and science. Climate change has been solved, she says. The solution just needs to be implemented.

I love that girls everywhere can witness this strong young woman, who wears no makeup or revealing outfits, taking on powerful adults by delivering simple, searing truths.
There has been criticism that Greta receives more press than other young climate activists of color, who have been actively engaged for longer. This is indisputable, and the bias is real. Thunberg is one of many girls and young people who are climate activists.

It’s important to remember that the responsibility lies with the media, not with Thunberg, who has been consciously amplifying the voices of other climate activists and bringing them up with her when she has the spotlight. I attended an event at the Ethical Society earlier this month where Thunberg was the headlining guest. The program also featured four indigenous climate activists who spoke before she came on stage: youth leaders Xiuhtezcatl Martinez, Xiye Bastida, and Vic Barrett, as well as Indigenous Amazon leader Tuntiak Katan.

We talk about how native and indigenous groups are the most effective and appropriate guardians of our climate, as a demographic that has always been dedicated to protecting and respecting the land. This makes sense; they are the ones closest to the crisis and most immediately at risk. The world needs to do a better job of listening to their voices in public climate conversations and policy decisions. But people should be wary of turning to them to solve the climate crisis alone, the same way that we need to consider the weight and magnitude of the burden we’re handing our children, and the things we’re asking them to fix: an ailing planet; gun safety—issues of basic survival.

Kids are marching to let us know that change is coming, whether politicians and business moguls like it or not. We need to let them know that adults will rise to the challenge. I want our children to go back to being children.

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