(AU) New Climate Atlas Report Shows How Climate Change Will Affect Australian Wine Regions

ABC Landline | Prue Adams

Vineyards across Australia's 71 wine regions may have to managed differently as the climate changes. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

Key points The Climate Atlas details how the climate will change in winegrowing regions over the next 80 years It predicts some regions may begin to resemble others, with changes to temperature, rainfall and aridity Winegrowers are looking to adapt to better cater for a changing climate

A world-first research document about to be released has detailed how Australia's famous winegrowing regions will be forced to adapt due to climate change.

It predicts the Barossa Valley will become more like the Riverland is now, while Tasmanian wine regions will resemble the current temperature of the Coonawarra.

Commissioned by Wine Australia, the Climate Atlas took University of Tasmania climate researchers three years to put together.

It charts an 80-year course for climate change, including temperature, rainfall, aridity and frost for each of the country's 71 wine regions.

The Climate Atlas was compiled by the Climate Futures Group at the University of Tasmania. (Supplied: University of Tasmania)

"It's pivotal; I think this will be a line-in-the-sand body of work," said Hunter Valley viticulturist Liz Riley, one of the first industry insiders to analyse the data.

With the Hunter destined to become three degrees warmer by 2100, with more intense and frequent heatwaves and more rainfall, Ms Riley is concerned for the health and safety of workers who will need to endure hotter, more humid conditions during the harvest season.

"We've focused a lot in climate change on managing the vineyard, but I think how we manage the people has probably been the greatest surprise within the [data] that's come out," she said.

A changing climate may affect everything from grape varieties to vineyard staffing. (Supplied: Unsplash)

Impact on colder climates

The colder wine regions are not immune to heat and aridity changes.

All eight wine regions in Tasmania will become hotter, some will become drier and others slightly wetter, but the water availability will be reduced, measured by an aridity index.

"It's going to get hotter and drier in most Australian regions," said lead author Tom Remenyi, from the University of Tasmania's Climate Futures Group.

"That warming, drying trend is because as the temperature increases, there is more evaporative demand, so there is this drying pressure on the landscape which would require it to increase in rainfall to maintain the same balance we have at the moment."

Dr Tom Remenyi turned the Climate Atlas data into an online tool. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

He said the data in the Climate Atlas drew on well-established and proven global climate models and the projections were based on the current high-carbon-emissions scenario.

"The Australian wine industry is the first industry to have this kind of information available to them at the resolution that is relevant to growers on the ground, and that gives them an enormous chance to choose their future," Dr Remenyi said.

'A wow moment' for winegrowers

Grape growers and winemakers can now compare the future of their regions with others that are already experiencing those temperatures and rainfall conditions.

For instance, over the next two decades Margaret River can expect its current mean growing season rainfall to drop from 206mm to 164mm by 2100, and the temperature is destined to rise just under three degrees, making it comparable to the current temperature of the Swan District, north of Perth.

Wine industry participants can seek information, such as soil and vine management and irrigation techniques, and even swap to varieties that will suit their changing climate.

For Tasmanian wine grower Max Marriot, there is concern as to whether his region could still grow the cool climate pinot noir and chardonnay it has built a reputation on.

Max Marriot was shocked to hear the report's predictions. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

"Tasmania could have a trajectory in 70 or 80 years time that sees it as a climate equivalent of Coonawarra, or growing degree days equivalent to South Australia," he said.

"When [Dr Remenyi] told me, it was very much a wow moment.

"This is going to have consequences."

Planning for change

Tasmanian winegrowers have already started thinking about how they will mitigate the higher temperatures and aridity.

Paul and Gilli Lipscombe moved to the Huon Valley to grow pinot noir in what they call "marginal" country.

Gilli Lipscombe has concerns for their dryland vineyard if the climate becomes more arid. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

They do not have any irrigation, but concede they may need to in the future if, as the data suggests, the region becomes more arid.

"To have really detailed numbers and projections for the next 20, 30, 40, 50 years, it's hugely beneficial," Ms Lipscombe said.

"We can make really concrete plans on what we need to do and how we need to approach the next few decades."

Australia's Wine Future: A Climate Atlas is due to be released publicly and free of charge on the Wine Australia website on Monday.

Links

• Australia’s Wine Future: A Climate Atlas
• Climate change is forcing Australia's struggling winemakers to adapt
• In focus: How the Australian wine industry is dealing with climate change
• Climate Change is Souring the Australian Wine Industry
• Australian bushfires: what will recovery look like?
• Hemispheric variability in global ocean warming
• We're gambling': Rohan sees climate change as an opportunity and he's thriving
• Climate change 'creeping up' on winemakers and increasing alcohol content
• New tech to detect smoke taint will ensure the quality of your next glass of wine
• Climate Futures for Tasmania
• Future fire danger