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Lobbying will increase for the federal government to follow the
new US lead on electric cars, energy efficiency and clean
energy.
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Lobbying will increase for the federal government to follow the new US lead on electric cars, energy efficiency and clean energy.
The Morrison government faces a choice. It can rebrand its climate approach to fit with a new reality or dig in and risk the 2050 target becoming an albatross, like John Howard’s refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which delivered an easy win for Kevin Rudd on climate diplomacy.
Against this is the reality that nominating a 2050 target will be only the beginning, not an end.
“We can’t just tick a box and move on,” says Carbon Market Institute chief executive John Connor. “I think a 2050 pledge comes with a pledge for greater action by 2030 and stronger institutions for oversight. That is what we are seeing in the UK and what Biden is trying to set as well.”
Early in his term, Biden will attempt what UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and British PM Boris Johnson tried but failed to achieve; bring world leaders together to increase their pledges for action for near-term goals as well as longer-term ambitions.
If the Biden administration wants to lead by example it must now deliver higher US targets for 2030 and beyond, and set out how it will help pay for the rest of the world to get there as well.
Biden has made climate change a key priority, signalling on day one of his presidency that the US would re-enter the Paris Agreement. But a Biden win certainly does not signal that even a majority in the US rate climate change as a priority issue or are willing to pay heavily to do something about it, particularly to the developing world.
The politics of climate change in mainstream America are similar to those in Australia and rejecting the Paris Agreement helped Donald Trump build his base of 70 million supporters.
Nonetheless, Australia now has a more difficult task defending its hugely important coal export sector as China, India, Indonesia and elsewhere continue to enjoy a free ride on their massive commitment to new coal-fired power.
Australia’s domestic coal for the energy sector clearly is on the way out, but what will replace it is far from clear.
Still, the Morrison government is now under enormous pressure to pivot on climate change action while Labor continues to assert it is on the right side of history.
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese says: “Labor’s position on climate change shares much with that of the Biden team and we are well positioned to co-operate closely with the US and the many other key allies and partners who take climate change seriously.”
Currently, says Connor, “Australia is standing with one foot each side of a barbed-wire fence”.
“We still see fresh subsidies for oil refineries and gas exploration as well as things like hydrogen and some welcome things like investments in transmission infrastructure that is going to be critical,” he says.
This is a position that, Connor says, exposes Australia to potential border tariff penalties in the future. “It is better to be on the greener side of the fence,” he says.
As things stand, the government has a target for Australia to cut 2030 emissions by 26 to 28 per cent from 2005 levels, but no fixed target for Australia to be carbon neutral by 2050. The ALP wants Australia to be carbon neutral by 2050 but has no near-term target or pathway to get there.
Labor’s emissions spokesman, Mark Butler, says Labor is committed to making sure Australia has medium-term targets between now and the middle of the century that are aligned with net-zero emissions and informed by the best available scientific and economic advice.
Energy Minister Angus Taylor says the government will have a long-term strategy for climate action ahead of this year’s UN meeting in Glasgow.
Taylor told a green industry seminar in December “we realise it is important but you’ve got to get it right too, because this has implications that are really profound to the Australian economy”.
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Energy Minister Angus Taylor.
Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage
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“We absolutely share that commitment and the PM has said many times we want to get there as soon as possible … but the challenge is how. If we can get technologies down to the point where you can abate at low costs, this is the pathway.
“I get the need for advocacy and proselytising, that’s important, but actually problem-solving is what’s going to get us there.
“Net zero happens because humans in an enterprising way solve hard problems and it’s that pace on problem-solving, on how to deploy these technologies in ways that strengthen our economy, create jobs, drive investment and bring down emissions.”
It is a difficult thing for dogmatic climate change campaigners to appreciate but, on the core issues of substance, a Biden administration is Australia’s friend and close ally in the geopolitical manoeuvrings that arc over the retail politics of climate action.
America’s Green New Deal has a lot in common with Australia’s track record of technology first and direct action.
In diplomatic circles and behind the scenes, Australia’s pioneering of green financing (under Julia Gillard), renewable energy research and development and deployment (Howard) and pioneering work in traditional cool burning of savanna lands and carbon farming (Tony Abbott) put it in a good space in international talks.
In UNFCCC meetings, Australia has traditionally led talks for the so-called umbrella group that represents the US, Japan, New Zealand, Kazakhstan, Norway, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
Taylor says Australia would continue to work closely with the US over a range of climate issues.
Much has been made of Biden’s choice of John Kerry as climate change ambassador. It is a fact that if it wasn’t for Kerry it is doubtful there would be a Paris Agreement on climate change.
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Nominated Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry.
Picture: AFP
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The final Paris outcome was a feeble agreement that was neither a treaty nor legally binding, to enable US president Barack Obama to ratify it without approval from congress and for developing nations to get on board.
The agreement invited countries to set their own pace with the crucial proviso that it would cover both developed and developing nations.
Kerry will no doubt pose some diplomatic headaches for Australia, not least in how he brokers agreements with China.
But Kerry is an expert on the issues that really divide the world on climate change action.
These are bifurcation – through which developed and developing countries are treated differently – and finance – the promise that developed nations will pay billions a year to the developing world to keep it inside the agreement.
Finance will be a big early issue for the US and Australia.
“The Biden team knows full well how much finance is part of the package to getting things through,” Connor says. “Definitely … the big US stimulus bill will include climate finance. Australia will be exposed as well.”
Morrison has pulled Australia out of the Green Climate Fund, an international body to direct funds to climate projects in the developing world – in favour of making direct bilateral payments to Pacific Island nations.
This approach has not been accepted by green campaigners, who have clearly set out their expectations of what Biden must do.
Helen Mountford, vice-president, climate and economics, at the World Resources Institute, says to regain trust and credibility Biden must quickly announce an ambitious US target for 2030 and significantly scaled-up finance for vulnerable countries. “That includes delivering on America’s outstanding pledge to the Green Climate Fund.”
Campaigners want Biden to use international forums such as the G7, G20, North American Leadership Summit and APEC to advance international co-operation on climate change. US senator Chris Murphy says climate considerations should play a role in every policy and spending decision the US makes overseas.
The reality is money and economic opportunity have been at the centre of US climate politics all along.
At the Paris conference in 2015, climate action was seen as the fourth industrial revolution, and since that time the power of the corporate and finance sectors has risen to meet the challenge.
Economic opportunity and clean air are driving China’s involvement as well.
“People forget that Paris was a high water mark in the reassessment of national interest,” Connor says. “We are now at an interesting time where the momentum is back on track but with a far greater investment focus, much more affordable technology.
“For China, there is a strong recognition they missed out on the industrial revolution and the digital revolution but they don’t want to miss out on the clean tech revolution.”
As part of the Green New Deal, Biden has pledged to make the largest-ever investment in clean energy research and innovation.
Targets include grid-scale storage at one-tenth the cost of lithium-ion batteries; carbon capture; small modular nuclear reactors at half the construction cost of today’s reactors; refrigeration and airconditioning with no global-warming potential; net-zero energy buildings and using renewables to produce carbon-free hydrogen at the same cost as that from shale gas.
Australia’s research priorities align with hydrogen, carbon capture and storage. It is ahead of the curve in per capita investment in solar, wind and smart-grid technologies. It is also well positioned on the other mega trend towards nature-based solutions.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Johnson told a One Planet summit for biodiversity in December they would set aside a third of climate finance for projects that help soils and plants soak up carbon, while creating habitats for wildlife.
Connor says now is the time for Australia to pivot. Howard got stuck not ratifying Kyoto because he was following the US position, despite Australia being one of the few countries to meet its target.
“The old-fashioned rhetorical approach of not being dictated to by Europe won’t work,” he says. “It is now the US, China and most of Asia as well.
“Australia has a good record on developing nature-based solutions and methodologies, and it should not be too difficult for the government to rebrand.
“From a marketing perspective people like renewable energy and land repair and there is ample opportunity for Morrison to stage some rebranding and policy evolution on those things while getting in and doing the hard things in vehicles and transportation.”
With Biden in the White House the status quo looks more difficult to maintain. But for Biden as well, the economics of this transition are unlikely to be easy as they might seem.
Links
- Green Climate Fund
- Green New Deal - Wikipedia
- The Paris Agreement
- (AU) While The World Races To Net-Zero Carbon, Australia Is A Non-Starter
- (AU) Net-Zero, Carbon-Neutral, Carbon-Negative … Confused By All The Carbon Jargon? Then Read This
- John Hewson Slams Coalition On Climate Change While Business Takes Lead Reducing Emissions
- (USA) Biden Returns US To Paris Climate Accord Hours After Becoming President
- (USA) Biden Plans To Fight Climate Change In A Way No U.S. President Has Done Before
- (USA) Biden Calls Climate Change ‘Existential Threat of Our Time’
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