New IEA report sees global energy-related CO2 emissions rising by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021, driven by a strong rebound in demand for coal in electricity generation
|
|
This would be the biggest annual rise in emissions since 2010, during the carbon-intensive recovery from the global financial crisis.
The IEA’s Global Energy Review 2021 estimates that CO2 emissions will increase by almost 5% this year to 33 billion tonnes, based on the latest national data from around the world as well as real-time analysis of economic growth trends and new energy projects that are set to come online.
The key driver is coal demand, which is set to grow by 4.5%, surpassing its 2019 level and approaching its all-time peak from 2014, with the electricity sector accounting for three-quarters of this increase.
“Global carbon emissions are set to jump by 1.5 billion tonnes this year – driven by in the resurgence of coal use in the power sector. This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.
“Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022. The Leaders Summit on Climate hosted by US President Joe Biden this week is a critical moment to commit to clear and immediate action ahead of COP26 in Glasgow.”
Global energy demand is set to increase by 4.6% in 2021 – led by emerging markets and developing economies – pushing it above its 2019 level.
Demand for all fossil fuels is on course to grow significantly in 2021, with both coal and gas set to rise above their 2019 levels. Oil is also rebounding strongly but is expected to stay below its 2019 peak, as the aviation sector remains under pressure.
The expected rise in coal use dwarfs that of renewables by almost 60%, despite accelerating demand for renewables. More than 80% of the projected growth in coal demand in 2021 is set to come from Asia, led by China. Coal use in the United States and the European Union is also on course to increase but will remain well below pre-crisis levels.
Electricity generation from renewables is set to leap by over 8% in 2021, accounting for more than half of the increase in overall electricity supply worldwide.
The biggest contribution to that growth comes from solar and wind, which are on track for their largest annual rise in history.
Electricity generation from wind is projected to grow by 275 terawatt-hours, or around 17%, from last year. Electricity generation from solar PV is expected to increase by 145 terawatt-hours, up almost 18% from last year. Their combined output is on track to reach more than 2 800 terawatt-hours in 2021.
Renewables are set to provide 30% of electricity generation worldwide in 2021, their biggest share of the power mix since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and up from less than 27% in 2019.
China is expected to account for almost half of the global increase in electricity generation from renewables, followed by the United States, the European Union and India.
The Global Energy Review is the IEA’s annual update on the latest trends in world energy and CO2 emissions. It covers all the main fuels and technologies, providing insights across regions, economies and countries.
As the world enters a second year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the annual Global Energy Review assesses the direction energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions are taking in 2021.
The latest statistical data and real-time analysis confirm our initial estimates for 2020 energy demand and CO2 emissions while providing insights into how economic activity and energy use are rebounding in countries around the world – and what this means for global emissions.
The accelerating rollouts of Covid-19 vaccinations in many major economies and widespread fiscal responses to the economic crisis are boosting the outlook for economic growth and leading to a rebound in energy demand in 2021.
The report explores whether the rebound in activity risks pushing CO2 emissions to a new high and to what degree new policies targeting a sustainable recovery are able to curb a rebound in emissions.
The pace of global vaccine rollouts, the possible emergence of new variants of the Covid-19 virus, and the size and effectiveness of economic stimulus measures all represent major uncertainties for the outlook.
This analysis therefore not only charts a possible path for energy use and CO2 emissions in 2021 but also highlights the many factors that could lead to differing outcomes.
|
•The Covid 19 pandemic continues to impact global energy demand
Third waves of the pandemic are prolonging restrictions on movement and continue to subdue global energy demand. But stimulus packages and vaccine rollouts provide a beacon of hope. Global economic output is expected to rebound by 6% in 2021, pushing the global GDP more than 2% higher than 2019 levels.
•Emerging markets are driving energy demand back above 2019 levels
Global energy demand is set to increase by 4.6% in 2021, more than offsetting the 4% contraction in 2020 and pushing demand 0.5% above 2019 levels. Almost 70% of the projected increase in global energy demand is in emerging markets and developing economies, where demand is set to rise to 3.4% above 2019 levels. Energy use in advanced economies is on course to be 3% below pre-Covid levels.
•Global energy-related CO2 emissions are heading for their second-largest annual increase ever
Demand for all fossil fuels is set to grow significantly in 2021. Coal demand alone is projected to increase by 60% more than all renewables combined, underpinning a rise in emissions of almost 5%, or 1 500 Mt. This expected increase would reverse 80% of the drop in 2020, with emissions ending up just 1.2% (or 400 Mt) below 2019 emissions levels.
•Sluggish demand for transport oil is mitigating the rebound in emissions
Despite an expected annual increase of 6.2% in 2021, global oil demand is set to remain around 3% below 2019 levels. Oil use for road transport is not projected to reach pre-Covid levels until the end of 2021. Oil use for aviation is projected to remain 20% below 2019 levels even in December 2021, with annual demand more than 30% lower than in 2019. A full return to pre-crisis oil demand levels would have pushed up CO2 emissions a further 1.5%, putting them well above 2019 levels.
•Global coal demand in 2021 is set to exceed 2019 levels and approach its 2014 peak
Coal demand is on course to rise 4.5% in 2021, with more than 80% of the growth concentrated in Asia. China alone is projected to account for over 50% of global growth. Coal demand in the United States and the European Union is also rebounding, but is still set to remain well below pre-crisis levels. The power sector accounted for only 50% of the drop in coal-related emissions in 2020. But the rapid increase in coal-fired generation in Asia means the power sector is expected to account for 80% of the rebound in 2021.
•Among fossil fuels, natural gas is on course for the biggest rise relative to 2019 levels
Natural gas demand is set to grow by 3.2% in 2021, propelled by increasing demand in Asia, the Middle East and the Russian Federation (“Russia”). This is expected to put global demand more than 1% above 2019 levels. In the United States – the world’s largest natural gas market – the annual increase in demand is set to amount to less than 20% of the 20 bcm decline in 2020, squeezed by the continued growth of renewables and rising natural gas prices. Nearly three-quarters of the global demand growth in 2021 is from the industry and buildings sectors, while electricity generation from natural gas remains below 2019 levels.
•Electricity demand is heading for its fastest growth in more than 10 years
Electricity demand is due to increase by 4.5% in 2021, or over 1 000 TWh. This is almost five times greater than the decline in 2020, cementing electricity's share in final energy demand above 20%. Almost 80% of the projected increase in demand in 2021 is in emerging market and developing economies, with the People's Republic China (“China”) alone accounting for half of global growth. Demand in advanced economies remains below 2019 levels.
•Renewables remain the success story of the Covid 19 era
Demand for renewables grew by 3% in 2020 and is set to increase across all key sectors – power, heating, industry and transport – in 2021. The power sector leads the way, with its demand for renewables on course to expand by more than 8%, to reach 8 300 TWh, the largest year-on-year growth on record in absolute terms.
•Renewables are set to provide more than half of the increase in global electricity supply in 2021
Solar PV and wind are expected to contribute two-thirds of renewables’ growth. The share of renewables in electricity generation is projected to increase to almost 30% in 2021, their highest share since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and up from less than 27% in 2019. Wind is on track to record the largest increase in renewable generation, growing by 275 TWh, or around 17%, from 2020. Solar PV electricity generation is expected to rise by 145 TWh, or almost 18%, and to approach 1 000 TWh in 2021.
•China alone is likely to account for almost half the global increase in renewable electricity generation
It is followed by the United States, the European Union and India. China is expected to generate over 900 TWh from solar PV and wind in 2021, the European Union around 580 TWh, and the United States 550 TWh. Together, they represent almost three-quarters of global solar PV and wind output.
Links
- Energy and climate leaders from around the world pledge clean energy action at the IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit
- Ministers, CEOs and other high-level leaders stress vital role of energy efficiency in reaching climate goals
- European Commission and IEA pull together for net zero
- Oil markets face uncertain future after rebound from historic Covid-19 shock
- First meeting of Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions brings together energy and climate leaders
- Ministers from around the world join Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions
- Energy and climate leaders from US, China, EU, India and other key economies to boost clean energy momentum at IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit
- Executive Director and US Climate Envoy John Kerry discuss US-IEA collaboration on urgent actions to drive down emissions
- After steep drop in early 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions have rebounded strongly
- New global commission headed by Danish Prime Minister will focus on putting people at the heart of energy transitions
- IEA calls on companies, governments and regulators to take urgent action to cut methane emissions from oil and gas sector
No comments :
Post a Comment