(SMH AU) Damage Bill From Natural Disasters To Treble By 2061

Sydney Morning Herald - Matt Wade | Nick O'Malley

More frequent and intense natural disasters fuelled by climate change are forecast to cost NSW between $15.8 and $17.2 billion a year by 2061 – more than three times the current damage bill from weather-related destruction.

A NSW Treasury study on climate change risk predicts rising sea levels will expose between 39,000 and 46,000 properties in the state to coastal erosion or inundation by 2061, causing property damage and loss of land estimated at between $850 million and $1.3 billion each year.

Flooding along the Macdonald River last month. Credit: Janie Barrett

More prevalent heatwaves will also take a heavy economic toll in coming decades – between 700,000 and 2.7 million additional days of work are forecast to be lost every year by 2061 due to the higher frequency of very hot weather.

Agriculture in the state will also suffer. By 2061, lost production in agriculture due to changed rainfall patterns, runoff and temperatures is estimated to be between $750 million and $1.5 billion.

The forecasts are included in a new technical research paper that will inform the state government’s next intergenerational report, due to be published in mid-2021.

The research paper evaluated how climate change would affect natural disasters, sea level rise, heatwaves and agricultural production over the next 40 years under three global warming scenarios defined by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – a lower warming scenario, an intermediate scenario and a higher warming scenario.

Treasurer Dominic Perrottet said the report showed that the state must continue to invest strongly in resilience initiatives.

“Australia has always been a land of extremes, and risk associated with our climate is something we deal with year in and year out,” he told the Herald.

“Just last month communities across the state battled floods following years of drought and some of the worst bushfires in recent memory.

“The report projects that these risks will likely continue and increase into the future, and that they will likely also carry significant costs for the state.”

In 2019 Mr Perrottet stood by an earlier address he had made to the conservative think tank the Centre for Independent Studies arguing that Labor and the Greens overspent on climate change bodies and downplaying the significance of Australia’s contribution to global warming.

According to the new report, bushfires are expected to increase more than other natural disasters, with the change in risk estimated at between 2 and 24 per cent by 2061 for NSW, depending on whether global warming is at the lower or higher end of the forecast range.

Sydney desalination plant churning out water even as dams remain full

Flood risk is projected to increase by up to 12 per cent by 2061 while the risks posed by severe storms – including hail and thunderstorms, east coast lows and the effects of tropical cyclones – is forecast to increase by between 2 and 5 per cent by 2061.

The report projects the total economic costs of natural disasters in NSW to increase to between $15.8 billion and $17.2 billion a year by 2061 (in real 2019-20 dollars), up from $5.1 billion in 2020-21.

However, the damage bill could vary greatly from year to year.

“If recent variability in the actual instance of natural disasters was repeated, total economic costs in any single year could range from $30 million to $75 billion (real 2019-20 dollars) under the intermediate warming scenario,” the report said.

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The spate of severe natural disasters in NSW during the past 18 months including drought, bush fires and floods has drawn attention to the threat climate change poses to the state’s economic and fiscal position.

“In 2019-20, economic output in the agricultural sector was the weakest in a decade following a prolonged drought, and the NSW government spent a record amount on natural disaster relief,” the Treasury report says.

The impact of climate change, particularly under higher warming scenarios, is expected to significantly intensify in the second half of the 21st century, a period beyond the scope of the Treasury study.

Links

• An Indicative Assessment of Four Key Areas of Climate Risk for the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report (pdf)
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Sixth Assessment Report
• Extreme summer ahead: Premier warns of flood, fire in coming months
• (AU) 'Criminally Irresponsible': Climate Experts Slam Narrabri Coal Seam Gas Approval
• (AU) Climate Change ‘A National Security Threat’: Report
• (AU) Australia's Bushfires Among The World's Worst Weather Disasters 'Boosted' By Climate Change, Report Finds
• The Undeniable Link Between Weather Disasters And Climate Change