(AU SMH) Climate Change Blamed For More Than A Third Of Heat-Related Deaths

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

Human-caused global warming was responsible for thousands of heat-related deaths in recent decades, a fraction of the numbers expected in the future even if nations adopt ambitious emissions-cutting efforts.

Research of 30 million deaths, spanning almost three decades in 732 locations in 42 countries, found 37 per cent of heat-related mortality could be attributed to climate change.

For Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, there were almost 3000 extra deaths, the international study, published on Tuesday in Nature Climate Change journal, found.

Climate change has been blamed for almost four in 10 of the heat-related deaths recorded across 43 nations over three decades. Credit: Via Weatherzone

The authors, including two based at Australian universities, applied the latest epidemiological and climate models to assess warm-season changes. The result was the largest such study of the health impacts of a hotter world to date, they said.

“We have demonstrated that health burdens from anthropogenic climate change are occurring, are geographically widespread and are non-trivial,” the paper concluded. “In many locations, the attributable mortality is already in the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths each year.”

---

Proportion of heat-related mortality
attributed to human-induced climate change (%)

Source: Nature Climate Change

---

Yuming Guo, head of Monash University’s Climate, air quality research unit, said warm-season heat-related deaths in Australia amounted to about 1.8 per cent of the total, of which about one-third can be attributed to climate change. That ratio is in line with the rest of the world, he said.

“Australians are still sensitive to heat, particularly extreme heat,” Professor Guo said. Even though residents could expect to access more air-conditioning and other relief from high temperatures, an ageing population brought extra deaths in line with other parts of the world.

Indians sit on the edge of a pond near the India Gate monument on a hot day in New Delhi when the mercury climbed to 45 degrees in May 2018. Credit: AP

For the 1991-2018 period, there were 2968 deaths in the three Australian cities that could be attributed to climate change, Professor Guo told the Herald and The Age. Sydney had the highest toll at 1484, with Melbourne at 924 and Brisbane suffering 560 extra deaths.

The fatalities would likely be proportionally higher in other parts of the country. “Normally low socio-economic areas have a higher mortality,” Professor Guo said.

---

Extreme weather

‘Not just dropping off a twig’: How climate impacts may be underestimated

Still, the additional deaths are occurring when average global temperatures have only increased about 1 degree since 1900.

“That rise is lower than even the strictest climate targets outlined in the Paris Agreement [to limit warming to 1.5–2 degrees] and a fraction of what may occur if emissions are left unchecked”, the researchers said.

While accounting for about 0.6 per cent of total warm-season deaths in the countries studied, the authors cautioned against extrapolating that figure globally to mean an extra 100,000 fatalities a year because many regions such as in Africa or South Asia were excluded.

Spectators try to keep cool at a sizzling day at the Australian Open in early 2019. Credit: AP

“One could expect, if warming is larger in these regions, that this percentage would be higher,” said Ana Vicedo-Cabrera, a researcher at Switzerland’s University of Bern, and the paper’s lead author.

---

Extreme weather

Trend towards worsening heatwaves is accelerating, new research finds

The research focused on trends rather than specific heatwaves because of data availability.

“The gap between the two scenarios [of averages and extremes] is increasing exponentially, and current adaptation may not be enough to counteract the effect of warming,” Dr Vicedo-Cabrera said.

“These findings ratify statements of scientific community that climate change is affecting human health already, it is not a matter of future generations only.

“Governments now have more reasons for urgently implementing ambitious mitigation targets and designing more efficient adaptation strategies” particularly in urban planning.

Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the University of NSW in Canberra said the results were as she expected, and there will be a lot more studies linking climate change to human health in the future.

As temperatures rise and extremes increase “more people will get sick and more people will die”, she said. “It will happen pretty much everywhere.”

Links

• More Than a Third of Heat Deaths Are Tied to Climate Change, Study Says
• World Health Organization: Heatwaves
• We know that heat kills; accurately measuring these deaths will help us assess the impacts of climate change
• The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
• (UK The Guardian) Climate Crisis Inflicting Huge ‘Hidden Costs’ On Mental Health
• (AU Climate Council) Kicking The Gas Habit: How Gas Is Harming Our Health
• The Climate Crisis Will Cause Once-Dormant Viruses To Reemerge
• (AU) Experts Urge Governments To Follow Health Advice On Climate, As They Did With Covid
• (AU) Former Health Chiefs Turn Focus To Climate