(AU SMH) The Sleeper Election Issue That Could Bite Morrison And Albanese

Sydney Morning Herald - John Hewson

Author Dr John Hewson AM is an honorary professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, and is a former leader of the Liberal party.

Scott Morrison has rightly followed the science and medical advice in responding to COVID-19. If his government hadn’t closed our borders, and the states hadn’t enforced lockdowns and social distancing, imagine the catastrophe.

The Prime Minister quantified it recently when he said Australia had avoided 30,000 COVID deaths. That compares with the 910 deaths caused by the pandemic to date. “I’m not going to take risks with Australian lives,” Morrison said.

Australia’s Black Summer is cited as a warning on the costs of inaction on climate change. Credit: Nick Moir

His government is not treating the hard climate science with the same urgency, although it has been developed over many more decades than the more rudimentary medical science it relied upon in responding to the pandemic.

Last month, the International Energy Agency, a long-time mouthpiece for fossil fuels, called for a global halt to new coal and gas ventures. At the same time, the Morrison government committed to spending $600 million of taxpayers’ money on a new gas-fired power plant in NSW’s Hunter Valley.

Inaction on climate change presents us with real costs – in lives, livelihoods and the lost economic growth that would come with sustainable industries and jobs.

Economist Nicki Hutley has summarised some of the likely consequences of inaction: “The cost of extreme weather disasters in Australia has doubled since the ’70s, reaching $35 billion over the decade to 2018-19. Economic damages per person are around seven times the global average.”

Paris Agreement

NAB chief ‘taking into account’ landmark climate report in oil and gas policy

The recent Black Summer fires are estimated to have cost about $100 billion – 14 times the economic and social costs of the 2009 Black Saturday fires.

Health costs are just starting to be recognised and counted. Hutley reports that the 2011 heatwave “saw a 14 per cent rise in ambulance call-outs and a 13 per cent increase in excess deaths”.

Particulate emissions from dirty petrol have been reported to kill multiples of the road toll each year.

Research from the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne suggests economic losses from climate change in a few decades could be like a COVID-sized economic shock every year. A similar prognosis has been suggested by modelling for the NSW government.

Australia also runs the genuine risk that, as a global climate laggard, significant trading partners will levy carbon border taxes on our exports, costing billions in lost revenue and thousands of lost jobs.

Paris Agreement

Politicians have duty of care to protect children from climate harm, court finds

The benefits of an effective and just transition, meanwhile, are supported by Deloitte, Beyond Zero, the Climate Council and many more in Australia, and by strategies adopted globally, including in the United States, Canada, Britain and Europe.

While Joe Biden and Boris Johnson push for greater emissions reductions, investor pressure mounts on fossil fuel companies.

Shell was ordered by a Dutch court to slash its emissions; 61 per cent of Chevron shareholders backed a resolution to force an emissions reduction; and an activist hedge fund won two seats on the ExxonMobil board.

Australia’s Federal Court found, in assessing a new coal mine, that our Environment Minister had a “duty of care” to younger people to avoid causing them personal injury from climate change. Expect more class actions against governments on climate.

Disturbingly, Australia’s two major political parties are engrossed in a race to the bottom on climate change, seeing who can be less specific about targets and commitments.

Paris Agreement

Mathias Cormann calls for ‘ambitious’ plan to reach net zero emissions

With the prospect of an early federal election this year, there is growing interest in running independents in key seats, focusing heavily on climate issues.

In an online independents’ convention in March, 80 electorates were represented. In 38 electorates there are community-based groups under the banner of Voices, and movements such as “Vote Angus Taylor Out”.

Clearly, independents will not be elected in all these seats, but they may well claim enough seats to swing the balance of power.

As the philosopher Karl Popper said, the party system robs individual politicians of responsibility, “makes [them] a voting machine rather than a thinking feeling person … what we need in politics are individuals who can judge on their own and who are prepared to carry personal responsibility”.

Scott Morrison will no doubt attempt to keep the election focus on his handling of the pandemic and the economy, capitalising on his poll superiority to Labor leader Anthony Albanese.

The sleeper election issue of climate may have to be carried by the independents.

The Prime Minister would be wise to remember the Wentworth byelection.

Links

• (AU Canberra Times) John Hewson: Reckless Morrison Government Must Move On Climate Change
• Australia, The Climate Laggard, Could Lead The World: Over To You, PM
• (AU Canberra Times) Australia Remains In A Climate Transition Muddle
• (AU) The Verdict On Australia’s Emissions Targets: Catastrophic
• Retirement Savings At Risk From Climate Change: John Hewson
• (AU) Our Survival As A Species Requires Urgent Action
• John Hewson Slams Coalition On Climate Change While Business Takes Lead Reducing Emissions 
• Labor would accelerate Sydney’s net-zero emissions goal if elected
• Climate change drives down oxygen levels in lakes worldwide
• International Energy Agency calls last drinks on fossil fuels
• Top energy chief tells Australia to get to net zero emissions before 2050
• ‘A COVID sized shock every year’. What climate change could mean for the Australian economy