(AU ABC) These Electorates Have The Highest Climate Risk. So Why Are They Less Likely To Demand More Action?

ABC Science | James Purtill | Matt Martino

Sea-level rise will be one of the main drivers of climate risk in Australia after 2050, experts say — but that doesn't necessarily mean people want the government to take action on it. (Fairfax Media: Peter Rae)

Australia Talks Australia Talks is a research-based initiative developed by the ABC, in collaboration with social and data scientists from Vox Pop Labs. The University of Melbourne is the Australian academic partner on the project. An advisory panel of academics from other Australian universities has also helped shape the initiative. The 2021 Australia Talks National Survey asked more than 60,000 Australians from across every state and territory and every federal electorate about their attitudes, behaviours and experiences.

Australians in electorates that are generally more exposed to the impacts of climate change are less likely to demand more action, according to a comparison of survey results and climate risk data.

The Australia Talks National Survey 2021 asked a cross-section of Australians: "How much should the federal government do to tackle climate change?"

The answers ranged from "more" to "less" to "about the same", but when these results were cross-referenced with the estimated climate risk in each electorate, the results were surprising.

People in electorates threatened by the impacts of climate change — such as those in Queensland's Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast — were less likely to say climate change is a threat, or demand government action.

So why is that the case?

Understanding the estimated climate risk

Climate risk data is used to estimate the future impact of climate change on property and infrastructure.

The data we compared with the Australia Talks National Survey 2021 results has been calculated by the firm Climate Risk, whose work is widely used by banks and other organisations that rely on accurate predictions of threats.

Karl Mallon, director of science and systems at Climate Risk, said the calculations "combine engineering data about buildings with weather data, climate change data, data about forests, soils, elevation, and height above sea level".

"And that all goes into like a washing machine of computer code," he said, and the computer spits out a raw figure: the climate risk.

This climate risk figure (on the x- axis) isn't a monetary value, but simply quantifies the combined risk to all properties in the designated area as a result of the predicted impacts of climate change.

Electorates above the graph's dotted horizontal line are more likely to say the government should do "about the same" or "less" to tackle climate change, while those electorates to the right of the dotted vertical line have a higher climate risk than most.

You might expect electorates with a high climate risk to want more action on climate policy, but that's not always the case.

Look at the upper-right quadrant: about a dozen electorates (mostly in Queensland) have both a higher climate risk than others, and a lower appetite for climate action.

This is a national trend. The diagonal line running through the centre shows the relationship between risk and attitude for all electorates.

It angles up, which points to something counter-intuitive: Australian electorates generally tend to be less likely to demand more action, as the climate risk within their electorate increases. 

City-country divide in climate attitudes

To understand why this is the case, we asked John Henstridge, chief statistician at Data Analysis Australia and former president of the Statistical Society of Australia, for his opinion on the data.

Dr Henstridge confirmed the relationship shown in the trend line appeared to be "statistically significant".

But not wanting more government action doesn't necessarily mean a person is sceptical about climate change; they may simply doubt the government's ability to mitigate the threat.

However, a second question asked by the Australia Talks National Survey 2021 shows a clear city-country divide in whether people see climate changes as a threat.

Floods in Queensland's Western Downs in early 2020. (Supplied: Queensland Fire and Emergency)

Australians in rural areas are generally more exposed to the impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events and more frequent and severe natural disasters.

Yet according to the Australia Talks National Survey 2021, they're also generally less likely to say climate change is a threat.

The survey asked respondents: "To what extent do you consider climate change a problem for you personally and Australia generally?"

In inner-metro areas, 73 per cent said it was a personal problem, compared to 61 per cent in rural areas.

Rebecca Huntley, a researcher on social trends, said this phenomenon of concern declining "inverse to the actual impacts of climate change" was almost unique to climate change.

With an issue such as emergency department wait times, for example, concern generally increases with impact, Dr Huntley said.

"There wouldn't be a person in regional or rural Australia who isn't doing some kind of climate mitigation in the work that they do," she said.

"They're at the frontline of extreme weather events."

Why do some electorates have such high climate risks?

According to the Climate Risk data, several electorates most threatened by the impacts of climate change but less likely to demand government action are on Queensland's Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.

They include the "outer-metro" electorates of Moncrieff, McPherson, Fisher, Fadden and Fairfax.

 

"The Gold Coast is a bit like our Florida Keys," Dr Mallon said.

"We've got flood risk, forest fires, and we've obviously got coastal inundation."

The answer to why people here are less likely to say climate change is a threat is complex, but one factor may be what Dr Mallon calls the "Noosa effect".

A high-profile group of Noosa residents is currently fighting the local council's plan to prepare for sea-level rise, saying this climate action will hurt property prices and insurance costs.

"You've got short-term versus a long-term interest," Dr Mallon said.

"The long-term self-interest says I should protect my property, but the short-term says these warnings on my sales certificate will devalue my property."

An aerial general view of the Gold Coast skyline. (Getty: Mark Kolbe)

Dr Mallon added that there was "probably a point" where the sentiment will flip from "suppression" to "protection".

"In Miami, the Republicans are pro-climate action," he said.

"It's undeniable now."

He said flooding was currently the most important driver of climate risk in Australia.

"After about 2050, coastal inundation will start to become one of the dominant causes of risk," he said.

Does education affect attitudes?

Another important factor in attitudes to climate change is education.

The Australia Talks National Survey 2021 data revealed that respondents who had completed a higher level of education were more likely to say climate change was a serious problem.

Among respondents with a level of education of "high school or below", 61 per cent said that "climate change is a serious problem and immediate action is necessary".

For Australians with a bachelor degree, that figure was 70 per cent; those with a graduate degree were even more likely to hold this view at 75 per cent.

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Dr Huntley said this correlation had been picked up in other surveys.

"It's got nothing to do with intelligence," she said, instead attributing it largely due to the fact climate change is typically communicated by people who come from a higher education.

"Regardless of whether people esteem climate scientists or not they don't always identify with them."

In addition to this, people with a higher education tend to consume a wider range of media and be less likely to be swayed by fringe views.

"When we look at people who are climate deniers or disengaged, their media diet is very narrow," Dr Huntley said.

Did the Black Summer bushfires shift attitudes?

Experts say the idea that a succession of climate-related natural disasters will eventually convince the doubters is flawed. (AAP: Dean Lewins)

Climate risk data aside, more Australians say climate change is a serious problem that requires immediate action now than it did two years ago.

The  Australia Talks National Survey 2021 revealed 64 per cent say this is the case, compared to 60 per cent in the previous survey, conducted in 2019.

According to Dr Huntley, that's a fairly large shift in a relatively short space of time, especially "given how long it takes to shift people on climate".

One cause of this shift may be the Black Summer bushfires, she said.

The worst fire season on record destroyed more than 3,000 properties, killed more than three billion animals and exposed 80 per cent of the country's population to unhealthy smoke.

A royal commission confirmed that climate change had intensified the fires.

But the idea that a succession of climate-related natural disasters will eventually convince the doubters is a flawed one, Dr Huntley said.

"Natural disasters don't shift all people in the same way," she said.

"If you were already really concerned about climate change, the fires made you tip over into something else.

"It creates activists, but it doesn't move mountains."

Links

• 'Many things will happen, mostly bad': The blast from the past that shows how long we’ve ignored climate change
• 'I can't mitigate my risk': Projections identify the coastal homes likely to be inundated by rising sea levels
• Australians think our population is getting too big but can we build better dense cities?
• These are the biggest changes in Australia Talks responses since 2019
• If 'life's a beach', Australian life is predicted to take the world's biggest hit Sea level rise began accelerating in the 1960s, researchers find
• Scores dead as record-breaking heat wave grips Canada and US
• Town closer to North Pole than the Equator hits 49.6C this week
• NSW releases plan to offset economic impact of climate change on Snowy Mountains