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International research into global climate models involving the Institute of
Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
(ICTA-UAB) shows that current worldwide economic policies are in danger of
leading nations away from emission and global warming targets.
The study, carried out by leading international academics and published
in Nature Energy, shows that existing growth-driven economic scenarios
rely heavily on increased energy use in the future, and the use of carbon
capture and storage technologies which are as-yet untested on a commercial
scale.
The article calls instead for diversification in these existing
models and highlights the need to consider alternative post-growth scenarios
in order to meet climate and emissions obligations set by the Paris
Agreement.
Growth-driven economic scenarios assume that nations must continue to raise
their
gross domestic product
(GDP) by increasing the production of goods and services in order to progress
economically and socially.
Subsequently this creates an increase
in the demand for energy and an inevitable rise in carbon emissions.
Authors state that these increases will need to be offset if the
goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees
Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels, is to be achieved.
Existing scenarios of climate mitigation rely on unproven technologies and
improved efficiency of our economies, but do not consider the need for
societal and economic transformations. "Take for example the question of
negative emissions.
Most scenarios assume it is perfectly feasible
to transform the land of the size of India into a bioenergy plantation yet
find it impossible to assume that rich countries could at some point stop
growing their economies, even though growth is proven to be a major driver of
environmental impacts," says Giorgos Kallis, ICTA-UAB researcher and co-author
of the study.
Other strategies—such as direct air carbon capture and storage—consume massive
amounts of electricity, creating difficulties in decarbonising energy
supply.
New research shows that alternative scenarios need to be considered in order
to deliver on existing targets.
There is now a growing call for
high-income nations to pursue post-growth economic models instead, which take
away the focus on increasing GDP and look to prioritize human needs and an
improved standard of living.
Researchers explain that post-growth policies maintain a stable economy and
support the social and societal needs of the population without economic
growth. As an example, Spain outperforms the U.S. in certain key social
indicators such as life expectancy despite having 55% less GDP per capita.
They insist on the need for policy interventions in areas such as
transportation, industry, agriculture, construction and city planning.
"These include extending product warranties, rights to repair,
minimizing food waste, reducing reliance on industrial farming methods,
promoting maintenance over new construction, and improving the energy
efficiency of existing buildings," says Jason Hickel, researcher at the London
School of Economics, who will join the ICTA-UAB next academic year.
"In the article, we propose an alternative approach to avoiding dangerous
climate change which does not depend on the success of dystopian
'technofixes'", explains Aljoša Slameršak, researcher at the ICTA-UAB.
He adds that "post-growth calls for
rich countries
to move away from economic growth and focus instead on provisioning for
human needs and
well-being, such as by reducing inequality, ensuring living wages, shortening
the working week to maintain full employment, and guaranteeing universal
access to public healthcare, education, transportation, energy, water and
affordable housing."
Researchers consider that their findings are relevant for the ongoing debate
on Spain's fair contribution in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreements.
"Support for the plans of El Prat airport expansion, the bid for
hosting the 2030 Winter Olympics in Barcelona-Pyrenees, and hostile reactions
to the appeal of the Spanish Minister of Consumption to reduce the consumption
of meat reveal the dangerous degree of denial and mismanagement of the climate
emergency by the Catalan and Spanish authorities," states Slameršak.
Researchers also point out that the ongoing forest fires in
Catalonia are just one aspect of the climate emergency that is about to get
much worse unless we face the uncomfortable reality that we must fundamentally
transform our economy, our energy system and our lifestyles, to avoid
dangerous climate change.
Links
- Smart transfer rules can strengthen EU climate policy
- No breakthrough during 'exhausting' online climate talks
- Study examining biodiversity loss calls for urgent global economy 'rethink'
- (Forbes) Climate Change Could Batter World’s Wealthiest Economies Twice As Badly As Covid, Oxfam Says
- (United Nations) Green Transformation Will Rival Industrial Revolution: US Climate Envoy
- (AU) Crooked Consulting: EY And Deloitte Spruik Climate On One Hand, The Explosion In New Coal Projects On The Other
- (UK) ‘We Are Seeing A Crisis In Values’ – An Exclusive Extract From Mark Carney’s Book
- Preparing For When Climate Change Drives People From Their Homes
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