(AU ABC) Barnaby Joyce's Nationals Take Aim At Scott Morrison's Liberals In Climate Change Showdown

ABC News - Brett Worthington

Scott Morrison wants an agreement from Barnaby Joyce on Coalition emissions targets ahead of the Glasgow climate summit. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

If the Glasgow climate change conference is the "last chance saloon" to save the planet, to get there, the Prime Minister's Liberals will have to survive a shoot-out with his deputy — the Nationals.

The Nats are shaking down their own government, wanting billions of dollars in return for adopting a net zero carbon emission commitment by 2050. 

This isn't a quick heist and is at risk of being dragged out for days, if not weeks.

Privately, some Liberals fear their Coalition partner is going to "make us bleed" in return for signing on to net zero.

"It's not a case of holding anyone to ransom, or anything like that," Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce told his party room on Monday.

But the Prime Minister could be forgiven for thinking that's exactly what's happening, having just confirmed he would attend the United Nation's climate summit known as COP26 in Scotland.

A net zero commitment is the bare minimum a prime minister or president will be expected to make in Glasgow. For Scott Morrison to do that, as he wants to, he needs a majority of Nationals on board and that's going to cost him, and taxpayers, billions.

When Queensland's Labor Premier recently threatened to keep her state's border closed until more hospital funding flowed, Morrison dubbed it extortion of the Commonwealth.

As his party demands billions from the government, Joyce has been keen to frame it as "record investment" for regional communities.

There's been no shortage of Nationals politicians, including Cabinet minister David Littleproud, doing television interviews in recent weeks. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

The clock has hit the 11th hour ahead of the Glasgow talks but the Nationals have made it clear they're in no rush to sign on. 

What they were rushing to on Monday were television and radio studios. Interview after interview, they made it clear what they didn't want. But exactly what they do want, besides coal, is less clear.

In fact, it's been synonymous with the Nats for much of 2021.

The political year began with Morrison inching towards a net zero commitment, telling the National Press Club: "Our goal is to reach net zero emissions as soon as possible, and preferably by 2050."

All roads have been leading to Glasgow since and yet it appears few, if any, Nationals have spent the months since Morrison's announcement formulating policies and shaping the debate they're unwilling to support.

Bridget McKenzie has been a vocal critic of her Liberal colleagues advocating for net-zero targets. (ABC News: Sean Davey)

Nationals Cabinet minister Bridget McKenzie likes to say that adopting net zero targets will cost people in the city nothing.

"It is easy for the member for Kooyong (Treasurer Josh Frydenberg) or the member for Wentworth to publicly embrace a net zero target before the government has a position, because there would be next to zero real impact on the way of life of their affluent constituents," she wrote in an opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review.

McKenzie, who owns two investment properties in Melbourne's coastal suburbs, might be critical of people who live in these areas but, as a senator for all of Victoria, she also is their representative in the nation's parliament.

Noticeably absent from her critique was an acknowledgement that people in the cities also pay taxes and will be helping to foot the bill for the billion-dollar bush boondoggles the Nationals want ahead of the looming election. 

But as the Coalition seeks to shore up Nationals seats that could be at risk in an election, it does so at the cost of historically safe Liberal seats in Melbourne and Sydney, now under threat from independents keen to campaign on climate action.

Crossbench MPs are using the debate to pressure the Coalition to adopt independent Zali Steggall's (right) climate bill. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

The Coalition will hold a joint party room meeting this morning, where Nationals keen to talk down net zero commitments can expect their Liberal counterparts to fire back. 

It's friendly fire that can inflict pain on the government, all without the opposition needing to lift a finger.

Culture wars are nothing new to the climate debate — a debate that's ended the leadership of both Liberal and Labor prime ministers in the last decade.

Morrison himself is no stranger to these culture wars, having earlier this year used a speech to business leaders in Sydney to appear to mock inner-city voters, saying, "we will not achieve net zero in the cafes, dinner parties and wine bars of our inner cities".

His rhetoric now has moved to the debate about safety, on Monday turning climate change questions into national security answers.

Morrison is keen to paint an optimistic future as Australia emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Australians can see their future, as the days get warmer, their future is getting brighter," he told parliament on Monday.

Just don't tell that to the farmers whose livelihoods are under pressure from hotter, drier climates.

The National Party held its second party meeting in two days on Monday. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

National Party politicians like to speak of their devotion to the royal family.

It was the heir to that throne, Prince Charles, who dubbed the climate summit the "last chance saloon" to save the planet. Just days later his mother, the Queen, appeared to bemoan politicians who talk, rather than "do".

At the same time, the man who will lead the Glasgow talks was urging "leaders to kick coal into the past, where it belongs".

This wasn't a Greens MP from Scandinavia, but rather a British MP from Boris Johnson's Conservative government. 

Scott Morrison wants an agreement with Barnaby Joyce ahead of the Glasgow climate summit. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

That kind of rhetoric unsettles Nats keen to be seen to be fighting, especially for the future of coal mining.

But the ultimate test for them will come if their party does sign on to the commitment. 

Those on the frontbench unwilling to get on board face moving to the backbench.

Talking with Nationals, few expect their ministers — when faced with giving up the comfort of sitting in Cabinet and the luxuries it offers with extra pay and Commonwealth-funded drivers — will be willing to give up their seats. 

"They'll sell whatever they need to sell to stay in Cabinet," one said.

The Coalition can only hope this Liberal-National saloon showdown will end in a flesh wound and not a fatal injury for the government.

Links

• 'Australia is still the dinosaur': UN report says government funding of fossil fuels contributing to warming
• Nationals push back on Morrison climate deal as COP deadline approaches
• Nationals fail to land on climate policy position during marathon meeting 
•  Scott Morrison to attend COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow, no decision on net zero 
• Net zero by 2050 climate plan may not be decided by COP26, as Nationals' Barnaby Joyce warns against being 'forced into a corner
• Barnaby Joyce says 'book in' election commitment of coal trains to Gladstone via Inland Rail
• Scott Morrison inches Australia towards 2050 net zero emissions, but distances himself from 'inner city' types
• Farming on the edge