(AU SMH) Joyce Weakens Morrison Before World Leaders Decide Their Pledges On Climate Change

 Sydney Morning Herald -  David Crowe

Barnaby Joyce has weakened Scott Morrison just two weeks before world leaders are due to meet in Glasgow to decide their pledges on climate change.

Joyce left the Prime Minister with little room to move on one of the key negotiations at the United Nations climate summit: the goal of making deeper cuts to emissions by 2030.

Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce addresses the media during a doorstop interview ahead of a Nationals party room meeting. Credit: Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

This is a win for the Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister but a loss for the wider government when it is trying to convince voters it is already ahead of its targets.

If, of course, Morrison lets Joyce call the shots.

Time and again, Morrison and his Liberal ministers have claimed they are on track to “meet and beat” the official policy of reducing emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2030 on 2005 levels.

Climate policy

Joyce expects colleagues to reject deeper cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by 2030

Now, it looks like the Nationals and the Greens have at least one thing in common: they do not believe it.

An agreement on a long-term target, net zero emissions by 2050, is still within reach. About one-third of the Nationals party room appears to be dead against a federal cabinet decision to make this official government policy.

But the 2050 target has support in cabinet, in the Liberal Party room and probably enough support in the Nationals party room to be adopted within days.
This will be a win for Morrison, after a painfully slow shift in his thinking, but it is undercut by the loss on the interim target.

The problem? Just as Morrison catches up, other leaders jump ahead. The head of the Carbon Market Institute, John Connor, says an Australian pledge on net zero by 2050 is only the “entry ticket” to the Glasgow UN summit next month.

It is enough to get Morrison a place at the table but not enough to get him much credit. It is as if Joyce has allowed him the ticket to the dinner but not the voucher that guarantees a meal.

Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce will chair a Nationals party room meeting to decide their climate change policy.

United States President Joe Biden has set a target of 50 to 52 per cent by 2030. Japan is aiming for 46 per cent, while South Korea set a goal of 40 per cent earlier this month. The United Kingdom is aiming for 68 per cent. Some use different base years but all are more ambitious than Australia.

Joyce took his usual roundabout route to air his view on Sunday. He dismissed the idea of a bigger 2030 target by saying it was his opinion about the mood of the whole party room.

There is a chance he got it wrong, but his way of summing up the majority view may have effectively decided it.

This has divided ministers. Some like the idea of making a 2030 forecast rather than setting a new and formal target. Others believe this needs a pledge, not a prediction. The nuance is unlikely to impress anyone in Glasgow.

It may not impress the public, either. It reveals a lack of confidence in the “meet and beat” promise Morrison has made so often.

And if the government cannot be confident about its promises, why should voters?

Links

• Australia’s biggest industry group calls on Morrison government to halve emissions by 2030
• VIDEO: Former PM says PM is determined not to lead on climate change
• AUDIO: How to understand climate change agreements and emissions targets
• How do we tackle Australia’s burning problem before it burns us?
• Evidence mounts that Australian business and voters agree on climate
• The Nationals won’t support a much tougher 2030 emissions target, Barnaby Joyce says
• ‘A long way to play out’: Nationals fail to reach agreement on 2050 emissions reductions