(AU ABC) Government's Emissions Reduction Modelling Draws Researchers' Criticism, Industry Approval

ABC News - Claudia Long

The modelling compares two "scenarios" for Australia — one where we didn't commit to net zero, and one where we did. (ABC News)

Key Points Some researchers say the model is overly optimistic about the contributions of the private sector, particularly when it comes to hydrogen Industry representatives have welcomed the modelling The head of the Australian Industry Group says there's a lot of work to be done and "a lot of things are going to have to go right"

Researchers are concerned by the modelling underpinning the government's plan to reduce emissions, but industry representatives say its release is a step in the right direction.

Made public on Friday afternoon, two weeks after the announcement of Australia's net zero by 2050 target, the document outlines an estimated 85 per cent decrease in emissions on 2005 levels.

The exact plan for reducing the remaining 15 per cent is still yet to be determined, with the government pinning those emissions reductions on technology developments that haven't happened yet.

So what have researchers and industry made of the document?

'May as well have been written in crayon' Tim Baxter, a senior researcher with the Climate Council, is unimpressed by the modelling.

"This piece of analysis may as well have been written in crayon," he said.

"One of the most egregious aspects of the plan is that what is supposed to be a credible plan to reach net zero in 2050 doesn't actually reach anywhere near that."

Some researchers say the model is overly optimistic. (AP: Charlie Riedel)

Mr Baxter is concerned by the prioritising of technologies the government previously announced it would be supporting as part of its road map.

"Right throughout is just assuming really heroic performance from all of those pet technologies the federal government has already announced."

"It doesn't really in any way test any of those assumptions."

Rod Campbell, Research Director at progressive think tank The Australia Institute, shares Mr Baxter's concerns.

"The modelling of the plan doesn't actually reduce our emissions to net zero despite what's written on the box," he said.

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Mr Campbell said the model is overly optimistic about the contributions of the private sector, particularly when it comes to hydrogen.

"They've invented a $50 billion hydrogen industry that currently doesn't exist, may never exist, but in the modelling, it's just been inserted in there as a new industry."

And he thinks it overlooks a key factor in Australia's tackling of climate change.

"None of the economic benefits in this model are what we gain from avoiding catastrophic climate change."

"I think most farmers, tourism businesses or other humans in Australia would argue that we should be acting on climate change to avoid it and reduce the costs or just damage of what's going on around us."

"This huge primary motivation to act on climate change is ignored in this modelling."

In a media release from Friday afternoon Energy Minister Angus Taylor said the government has a credible pathway to net zero.

"The modelling shows that a clear focus on driving down technology costs will enable Australia to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 without putting industries, regions or jobs at risk."

Industry representatives welcome modelling

Industry reps say the modelling presents just one potential pathway forward. (AP: Charlie Riedel, file)

While the document has had a frosty reception in some quarters, industry representatives have welcomed its release.

Sarah McNamara, chief executive of the Australian Energy Council which represents 20 major power and gas companies, said the modelling was a move in the right direction.

"We see this modelling at a higher level as being a positive piece of work in that it supports the federal government's commitment to net zero by 2050," she said.

"What is encouraging is that it anticipates some big changes in our economy as we move through to 2050 and a lower emissions future, many of which are going to be positive changes in jobs as well as for the climate."

Ms McNamara said there's still a lot of factors in play when it comes to how Australia will meet our net zero target.

"We're taking it as an early indicator of the government's commitment to meeting this goal."

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"We don't yet know how strongly technologies are going to perform over time if they are not yet proven technologies."

"Hydrogen is a really exciting emerging technology."

Innes Willox, head of the Australian Industry Group, says the modelling presents just one potential pathway forward.

"We've always all said that the journey to net zero by 2050 is not going to be straightforward, easy or linear, and there will be a lot of challenges as well as opportunities on the way."

"The modelling is just one potential story of what could happen."

"There are some big assumptions here, and that's why underpinning all of this is going to have to be a lot of work done and a lot of things are going to have to go right."

"The thing to keep in mind here is that there's no expectation this is going to happen overnight."

"This is almost a 30-year journey that we're going to be on, so a lot is going to happen between now and then, particularly in the realm of technology."

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 Links

• Government releases modelling underpinning net zero emissions by 2050 target
• Third COP26 draft ensures rich nations deliver climate promises
• What is the government's plan to get Australia to net zero?
• Carbon capture and storage: does it work, and does it mean we can keep burning fossil fuels?
• What is green hydrogen, how is it made and will it be the fuel of the future?
• Coalition promising 'great future' for coal and gas as Cabinet considers net zero by 2050 plan
• 'Clean' hydrogen and cheap solar power at centre of government's net zero commitment
• Morrison's climate 'plan' reveals a spectacular new model of political leadership in Australia