08/08/2021

(AU The Conversation) Monday’s IPCC Report Is A Really Big Deal For Climate Change. So What Is It? And Why Should We Trust It?

The Conversation - 

Chinatopix via AP

Author
 is a Chief Research Scientist in the CSIRO Climate Science Centre and an honorary Professor at the University of Melbourne.
From 2018 until June 2021, he was Leader of the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub in the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, based in CSIRO.
He is an internationally recognised expert on climate change and climate variability and a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science. 
On Monday, an extremely important report on the physical science of climate change will be released to the world.

Produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the report will give world leaders the most up-to-date information about climate change to inform their policies.

It is an enormous undertaking, and has been a long time coming.

This report is the culmination of a marathon five-year assessment, writing, review and approval process from 234 leading scientists hailing from more than 60 countries.

These scientists have worked together to rigorously evaluate the world’s climate change research papers — more than 14,000 of them.

I’ve been involved with the IPCC reports in multiple roles since 1997. For this current report, I was a review editor for one of the chapters.

This IPCC assessment report is the sixth overall, and the first since 2013. A lot has changed since then, from major governments setting ambitious climate targets, to the devastating floods, fires and heatwaves across the world.

So what is the IPCC is and why does this report matter so much? And given the report is commissioned and approved by national governments, should we trust it?

What is the IPCC? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was first established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. Their aim was to provide policymakers with regular and comprehensive scientific assessments on climate change, at a time when climate change was becoming a more mainstream concern around the world.

These reports assess the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. They’re required to be policy-relevant yet policy-neutral. They contain findings, and state the confidence with which the finding is made, but do not recommend action.

This report is the sixth since the IPCC was established in 1988. Shutterstock
The first assessment was completed in 1990, and found 
emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the concentrations of […] carbon dioxide [and other greenhouse gases]. These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.
Since then, new assessment cycles have been completed every five to seven years.

The overall assessment — the Sixth Assessment Report — is divided into three main parts. Monday’s report is the first part on the physical science basis for climate change, and was delayed by almost a year due to COVID restrictions.

The next two parts will be released in 2022. One will cover the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of, for example, people, ecosystems, agriculture, cities, and more. The other will cover the economics and mitigation of climate change.

The Sixth Assessment Report will culminate in a synthesis report, combining the first three parts, in September 2022.

What will we learn? The report will provide the most updated and comprehensive understanding of the climate system and climate change, both now and into the future. For that reason, it’s relevant to everyone: individuals, communities, businesses and all levels of government.

It will tell us how fast carbon dioxide emissions have been rising, and where they’re coming from. It’ll also tell us how global temperatures and rainfall patterns have changed, and how they are expected to change this century, with associated confidence levels.

Compared to the previous report in 2013, this report puts greater emphasis on regional climate change, on changes in extreme events, and how these events are linked to human-caused climate change.

Devastating fires in California, US, have levelled multiple historic buildings and homes. AP Photo/Noah Berger 
This greater emphasis on extreme events at regional scales makes it even more important to policy makers and the public.

In recent months the world has watched in horror as heatwaves, bushfires and floods toppled homes and buildings, killing hundreds across China, Europe and North America.

The report will help put disasters like these in the context of climate change, noting that similar events are expected to be more frequent and severe in a warming world.

The report also examines the effects of different levels of global warming, such as 1.5℃ and 2℃. It also looks at when such warming is likely to be reached.

Why should I trust it?

The scope of each IPCC report is prepared by scientists and approved by representatives of all governments. The 234 scientists who wrote the report are selected based on their expertise, and represent as many countries as possible.

The reports go through multiple stages of drafting and review. The first draft of the current report had more than 23,000 review comments from experts. Each comment received an individual response.

The second draft had more than 50,000 review comments from experts and governments, and these guided the preparation of the final draft.
You may be thinking that the IPCC reports should not be trusted because they involve government inputs and approval. However, this is probably one of their strengths. Involving government representatives ensures the reports are relevant to the policy interests of all governments.

Indeed, the multi-stage review and revision process used for the IPCC reports has been used as a model for international assessments of other scientific topics.

Can I read it? The report will be released and free to read at 6pm Australian Eastern Standard time (10am Paris time) on Monday. But each chapter in the final report will be more than 100 pages long in a small font, so few people will read it all.

The most accessible part of the report is its Summary for Policymakers, aimed at a general readership and drafted by the expert authors.

The approval meeting for this report has been taking place over the last two weeks in Paris, as a video conference meeting of government representatives. The meeting approves each chapter, but most time is spent considering and approving the Summary for Policymakers.

Every line in this summary is considered separately, comments from government representatives are considered, and changes must be approved by consensus of all governments. Sometimes reaching consensus can take a long time.

It’s clear the IPCC brings the best of global science together. It’s vital that governments keep the findings of this report front of mind in their decision-making, if the world is to avoid the worst-case climate scenarios.

Links
at No comments:

(Phys.org) Global Economic Policies Driving Toward A Climate Crisis

Phys.org - Autonomous University of Barcelona

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

International research into global climate models involving the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) shows that current worldwide economic policies are in danger of leading nations away from emission and global warming targets.

The study, carried out by leading international academics and published in Nature Energy, shows that existing growth-driven economic scenarios rely heavily on increased energy use in the future, and the use of carbon capture and storage technologies which are as-yet untested on a commercial scale.

The article calls instead for diversification in these existing models and highlights the need to consider alternative post-growth scenarios in order to meet climate and emissions obligations set by the Paris Agreement.

Growth-driven economic scenarios assume that nations must continue to raise their (GDP) by increasing the production of goods and services in order to progress economically and socially.

Subsequently this creates an increase in the demand for energy and an inevitable rise in carbon emissions.

Authors state that these increases will need to be offset if the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels, is to be achieved.

Existing scenarios of climate mitigation rely on unproven technologies and improved efficiency of our economies, but do not consider the need for societal and economic transformations. "Take for example the question of negative emissions.

Most scenarios assume it is perfectly feasible to transform the land of the size of India into a bioenergy plantation yet find it impossible to assume that rich countries could at some point stop growing their economies, even though growth is proven to be a major driver of environmental impacts," says Giorgos Kallis, ICTA-UAB researcher and co-author of the study.

Other strategies—such as direct air carbon capture and storage—consume massive amounts of electricity, creating difficulties in decarbonising energy supply.

New research shows that alternative scenarios need to be considered in order to deliver on existing targets.

There is now a growing call for high-income nations to pursue post-growth economic models instead, which take away the focus on increasing GDP and look to prioritize human needs and an improved standard of living.

Researchers explain that post-growth policies maintain a stable economy and support the social and societal needs of the population without economic growth. As an example, Spain outperforms the U.S. in certain key social indicators such as life expectancy despite having 55% less GDP per capita.

They insist on the need for policy interventions in areas such as transportation, industry, agriculture, construction and city planning.

"These include extending product warranties, rights to repair, minimizing food waste, reducing reliance on industrial farming methods, promoting maintenance over new construction, and improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings," says Jason Hickel, researcher at the London School of Economics, who will join the ICTA-UAB next academic year.

"In the article, we propose an alternative approach to avoiding dangerous climate change which does not depend on the success of dystopian 'technofixes'", explains Aljoša Slameršak, researcher at the ICTA-UAB.

He adds that "post-growth calls for to move away from economic growth and focus instead on provisioning for and well-being, such as by reducing inequality, ensuring living wages, shortening the working week to maintain full employment, and guaranteeing universal access to public healthcare, education, transportation, energy, water and affordable housing."

Researchers consider that their findings are relevant for the ongoing debate on Spain's fair contribution in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreements.

"Support for the plans of El Prat airport expansion, the bid for hosting the 2030 Winter Olympics in Barcelona-Pyrenees, and hostile reactions to the appeal of the Spanish Minister of Consumption to reduce the consumption of meat reveal the dangerous degree of denial and mismanagement of the climate emergency by the Catalan and Spanish authorities," states Slameršak.

Researchers also point out that the ongoing forest fires in Catalonia are just one aspect of the climate emergency that is about to get much worse unless we face the uncomfortable reality that we must fundamentally transform our economy, our energy system and our lifestyles, to avoid dangerous climate change.

Links

at No comments:

(The Guardian) Wildfires Burn Out Of Control In Greece And Turkey As Thousands Flee

The Guardian - Associated Press

Protracted heatwave continues as flames threaten populated areas, electricity installations and historic sites

Kourkouli village during the night amid the wildfires, in Evia, Greece, on 5 August 2021.

Thousands of people have fled wildfires that are burning out of control in Greece and Turkey, including a large blaze just north of Athens that left one person dead, as a protracted heatwave turned forests into tinderboxes and flames threatened populated areas, electricity installations and historical sites.

Turkey’s wildfires, described as the worst in decades, have swept through swathes of the southern coast for the past 10 days, killing eight people.

In Greece, firefighters were battling 56 active wildfires on Friday, Civil Protection chief Nikos Hardalias said.

Multiple evacuation orders were issued for inhabited areas of the mainland and the nearby island of Evia, while the fire near Athens burned forests and houses in its path heading toward Lake Marathon, the capital’s main water reservoir.

“We continue our effort hour by hour to tackle the multiple fires we face today,” Hardalias said. “Conditions are exceptionally dangerous.” The wind picked up on Friday afternoon in many parts of Greece, increasing the risk of fires.

Athens’s main trauma hospital said a 38-year-old man had died after sustaining a head injury from a falling utility pole in Ippokrateios Politeia, one of the neighbourhoods north of Athens affected by the fire.


Greek prime minister says 'worst is yet to come' as wildfires rage around Athens – video 1min 34sec

On Evia, the coastguard mounted a major operation to evacuate hundreds of people by sea, using patrol vessels, fishing and tourist boats and private vessels to rescue residents and holidaymakers overnight and into Friday.

Dozens of other villages and neighbourhoods were emptied in the southern Peloponnese region and just north of the Greek capital as blazes raced through pine forests.

“We’re talking about the apocalypse, I don’t know how [else] to describe it,” Sotiris Danikas, head of the coastguard in the town of Aidipsos on Evia, told state broadcaster ERT, describing the sea evacuation.

The coastguard said 668 people had been evacuated from beaches in north-east Evia by early Friday afternoon after flames cut off all other means of escape. Coastguard vessels continued to patrol the coastline.

A coastguard vessel was also rescuing another 10 people trapped on a beach by another fire near the town of Gythio in the southern Peloponnese region.

Greek and European officials have blamed the climate crisis for the multiple fires burning through swaths of southern Europe, from southern Italy to the Balkans, Greece and Turkey.

Massive fires have been burning across Siberia in the north of Russia for weeks, while hot, bone-dry, gusty weather has also fuelled devastating wildfires in California, destroying whole towns in some cases.

Eight dead as wildfires continue to rage across southern Europe.  Read more

Greece has been baked by its most protracted heatwave in three decades, with temperatures soaring to 45C (113F).

Thousands have fled homes and holiday accommodation, while at least 20 people, including four firefighters, have been treated for injuries.

Two of the firefighters were in intensive care in Athens, while another two were in hospital with light burns, the health ministry said.

More than 1,000 firefighters and nearly 20 aircraft are battling huge fires across Greece, while extra firefighters, planes, helicopters and vehicles were arriving from France, Switzerland, Romania, Cyprus, Croatia, Israel and Sweden.

In Turkey, authorities on Friday evacuated six more neighbourhoods near the Mugla province town of Milas as a wildfire fanned by winds burned 3 miles (5km) away from a power plant. At least 36,000 people were evacuated to safety in Mugla province alone, officials said.

Meanwhile, several excavators cleared strips of land to form firebreaks in a bid to stop flames from reaching the Yenikoy power plant, the second such facility to be threatened by wildfires in the region.

Wildfires near the tourism resort of Marmaris, also in Mugla province, were largely contained by late Thursday, officials said, while by Friday afternoon, the two main fires in neighbouring Antalya province were brought under control and cooling efforts were under way, agriculture and forestry minister Bekir Pakdemirli tweeted.

In Greece, firefighters went door-to-door in areas about 12.5 miles north of Athens telling people to evacuate, while helicopters dropped water on towering flames and thick smoke blanketed the area.

Authorities sent push alerts to mobile phones in the area urging residents to leave, while a refugee camp on the outskirts of the capital was evacuated overnight. Constant flare-ups that threatened inhabited areas hampered the work of hundreds of firefighters there.

The fire halted traffic on the country’s main highway connecting Athens to northern Greece and damaged electricity installations. The power distribution company announced rolling cuts in the wider capital region to protect the electrical grid.

In the Drosopigi area, resident Giorgos Hatzispiros surveyed the damage to his house on Friday morning, the first time he was seeing it after being ordered to evacuate the previous afternoon.

Only the charred walls of the single-storey home remained, along with his children’s bicycles, somehow unscathed in a storeroom. Inside, smoke rose from a still-smouldering bookcase.

“Nothing is left,” Hatzispiros said. He urged his mother to leave, to spare her the sight of their destroyed home.

In southern Greece, dozens of villages and settlements were evacuated, where a blaze was stopped before reaching monuments at Olympia, birthplace of the ancient Olympic Games.

The fires also disrupted Covid-19 vaccinations. The health ministry announced the suspension of vaccinations at centres in fire-affected areas, saying appointments could be rescheduled when conditions allowed.

In a televised address on Thursday night, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the prime minister, said: “Our priority is always the protection of human life, followed by the protection of property, the natural environment and critical infrastructure. Unfortunately, under these circumstances, achieving all these aims at the same time is simply impossible.”

He said the wildfires displayed the reality of the climate crisis.

In 2018, more than 100 people died when a fast-moving forest fire engulfed a seaside settlement east of Athens. Some of them drowned trying to escape by sea from the smoke and flames after becoming trapped on a beach. 

Links
at No comments: