Decarbonising The Economy Could Lead To Hundreds Of Thousands Of Job Losses, So What Can Be Done?

ABC News - Jess Davis

New modelling predicts the impact on jobs if Australia's trading partners decarbonise. (ABC News: Jess Davis)

Key Points A report outlines the impact of likely 2050 decarbonisation commitments by Australia's export partners It finds job losses are likely to be concentrated in regional areas There are calls for more coordinated policies from all levels of government to plan for a "predictable change"

As the world slowly starts to move away from fossil fuels, Australia's lucrative export markets are predicted to undergo a massive shift.

As the shift occurs, new research predicts up to 300,000 jobs could be lost over the coming decades in mining and other related industries, such as services — with most losses hitting regional areas.

The report by independent think tank the Centre for Policy Development (CPD) mapped out how many jobs could be lost and where, if our trading partners follow through on plans to decarbonise by 2050.

"We've got to understand that the demand for that product [fossil fuel exports] is not going to be anything like what it is today, that's going to be a much smaller industry, it's going to support … fewer jobs," CPD's policy director Toby Phillips said.

"To deny the reality of what the global market is doing is to set ourselves up for failure," he said.

It's a reality that coal miner Grant Howard is well aware of. He has been in the industry for 40 years, the last 20 of those in central Queensland's Bowen Basin.

Grant Howard says tough conversations about declining jobs in the fossil fuel sector are needed. (ABC News: Angel Parsons)

"I've had a great run and I want the same as what I've had, I want that for future generations," he said.

"The only way to do that is for us, as an industry, as a country, as a community is to change and adapt to the future."

Planning for a 'predictable and manageable change'

The Bowen Basin is heavily reliant on coal exports, both metallurgical coal for steel and to a lesser extent thermal coal.

Mr Phillips said those exports left the region vulnerable, with the report finding the Bowen Basin and the Hunter in NSW were likely to be the most heavily impacted.

"These affected jobs are highly concentrated in around half a dozen local government areas," he said.

The report calls on all levels of government to plan ahead for what Mr Phillips described as a "predictable and manageable" change.

The report modelled the impact on Australian output and employment at a local government level.(Supplied: the Centre for Policy Development)

"The transition challenge over the next 30 years is not so much about dealing with a major shock to the entire Australian economy," he said.

"It's actually looking at these concentrated effects in specific areas, and saying, 'How do we diversify these specific economies?'."

'Scary numbers don't help'

In the heart of the Hunter, Singleton Chamber of Commerce president Sue Gilroy said frightening headline figures were not helpful.

"I just think it scares people," she said.

"They want to put their head back in the sand … because 300,000 jobs is a lot of jobs."

Ms Gilroy, who has worked in the coal industry in the past, said she was realistic about its future.

Sue Gilroy says coal will be around for a while yet, but there still need to be plans for diversifying. (Supplied)

"It'll be a lot of years yet and we know coal is a big part of what we do here in the Hunter and fossil fuel is a big part of what we do," she said.

"But let's get real about this. Let's look at what it looks like to diversify, and grow the industries we have here that don't work with coal."

New investment, jobs

Warrick Jordan from the Hunter Jobs Alliance said work was already being done on the ground.

"To be honest, these types of dire predictions aren't very helpful. The sky isn't falling in, but there are real issues that we need to address," he said.

"There's a lot of good, smart people who are working on attracting new investment and growing jobs."

Mr Jordan has called for a locally run coordinating body — that would oversee a decarbonisation of the economy — otherwise known as a transition authority.

"Looking at the evidence from Australia and overseas, it's really clear that you need a regionally driven model that puts regional people in in the box seat," he said.

"The best models we see [are] where you have a state government that creates the framework, creates the authority and puts resources in, and then you have an Australian or a Commonwealth level of support that can provide resourcing in the right policy environment."

Queensland's Bowen Basin is heavily dependent on coal exports for both steel and energy. (ABC News: Jess Davis)

For Mr Howard, reports like this one are important. "I think these reports are good because they help to maintain the conversation, they start to wrap some numbers around ideas, and the consequences of not making these adjustments," he said.

"Politicians need to do their job, they need to give coal miners specifically good information so that we as a group, as individuals, can make adjustments to our life in plan."

Links

• If this is coal's last hurrah, what's the plan for central Queensland?
• Who’s buying? The impact of global decarbonisation on Australia’s regions
• Seventh Climate & Recovery Initiative stakeholder roundtable
• Climate Risk, Capital Markets and Global Governance
• Treasury says Australia must engage with global shift to sustainable finance
• Treasury boss sounds warning on climate
• Macquarie CEO Sees Focus on Offshore Wind’s Untapped Markets
• Deep in coal country, one community is grappling with what the future holds