Global Warming Accelerates: World Nears Critical Climate Threshold

                       Key Points

• Global temperatures rising faster than expected, nearing 1.5°C threshold¹
• New study finds Earth already warmed by 1.39°C²
• 2024 saw first year with average temperatures above 1.5°C³
• May 2025 was the second-warmest May on record⁴
• Atmospheric CO₂ exceeds 430 ppm, highest in history⁵
• Four billion people faced an extra month of extreme heat⁶
• Nearly two-thirds of glacier loss since 1991 due to human activity⁷
• Arctic permafrost thawing, releasing methane⁸
• Over half a million deaths in ten major climate-worsened disasters⁹
• 70% chance five-year global temperature average will exceed 1.5°C¹⁰
• Scientists warn 3°C warming may be new baseline if trends persist¹¹

As the world enters the second half of 2025, the climate crisis has reached a new level of urgency. 

 

Recent scientific assessments show that global temperatures are rising faster than previously estimated, pushing humanity closer to breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

 

This is a symbolic and practical line that, if crossed, could trigger more severe and irreversible climate impacts¹.

A New Calculation, a Stark Warning

A groundbreaking study published this month proposes a more accurate method for calculating global surface air temperature, revealing that the Earth has already warmed by 1.39°C above pre-industrial levels—higher than earlier estimates². 

This refined approach, developed by researchers at the University of Graz, suggests that the planet could consistently surpass the 1.5°C mark as soon as 2028, several years earlier than the widely cited 2030-2035 window. 

The year 2024 already saw global average temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5°C, an unprecedented event that caught climate scientists off guard and signaled an acceleration in warming trends³.

Record-Breaking Heat and Escalating Impacts

May 2025 was the second-warmest May on record globally, trailing only the previous year⁴. 

The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that, while a recent La Niña event brought a short-lived dip in global temperatures, the underlying trend remains upward due to persistent greenhouse gas emissions. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have now surpassed 430 parts per million, the highest in human history, underscoring the relentless accumulation of heat-trapping gases⁵.

Extreme heat has become the most deadly weather-related hazard, with a recent study attributing an extra month of extreme heat for four billion people over the past year directly to human-driven climate change⁶. These heatwaves are linked to increased illness, deaths, agricultural losses, and widespread disruptions to daily life.

Nature’s Tipping Points: Melting Glaciers and Permafrost

The consequences of warming are visible across the globe. Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates, with nearly two-thirds of glacial loss between 1991 and 2010 directly attributed to human-caused global warming⁷. 

Since 1980, glaciers have lost an average of nearly 40 feet in thickness, contributing to rising sea levels and threatening coastal communities. Permafrost in the Arctic is also thawing rapidly, releasing methane—a potent greenhouse gas—and creating a feedback loop that accelerates further warming⁸.

Disasters Intensify, Human Toll Mounts

Climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of natural disasters. More than half a million people have died in just ten major disasters that were made worse by climate change, according to a recent report⁹. 

Hurricanes, drought-fueled wildfires, and catastrophic flooding are becoming more common and more destructive, reshaping landscapes and livelihoods across continents.

The Political and Economic Crossroads

The world’s window to act is narrowing. The United Nations warns that humanity is “perilously close” to exceeding the 1.5°C limit, and the World Meteorological Organization forecasts a 70% chance that the five-year average global temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed this threshold¹⁰. 

As world leaders prepare for the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, the challenge of rapidly reducing emissions looms large—especially as global greenhouse gas emissions have yet to peak.

The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to “well below 2°C” and pursuing efforts to stay under 1.5°C remains technically possible but increasingly difficult. 

The odds of restricting warming to two degrees are now seen as slim, with some scientists warning that three degrees of warming—once considered unthinkable—may be the new baseline if current trends persist¹¹.

A Call for Urgent Action

Despite the grim outlook, experts emphasize that the worst outcomes are not inevitable. The knowledge and technology to curb emissions exist, but decisive policy action and global cooperation are urgently needed. 

The coming years will determine whether the world can avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change—or whether the 1.5°C threshold will become another milestone passed on the road to a hotter, more volatile planet. 

Footnotes

1. The Paris Agreement: United Nations
2. A New Approach to Calculating Global Surface Air Temperature (Nature, 2024)
3. 2024: First Year with Global Temperatures Above 1.5C (BBC News)
4. Copernicus: May 2025 Second Warmest on Record
5. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Hits New High (NOAA Climate.gov)
6. Four Billion People Endure Extra Month of Extreme Heat (Nature News)
7. Human-Caused Glacier Loss (Nature, 2023)
8. Thawing Permafrost and Methane Release (National Geographic)
9. Half a Million Deaths in Ten Climate-Intensified Disasters (The Guardian)
10. WMO: Global Temperatures Set to Reach New Records
11. Three Degrees: The New Baseline? (New York Times)