Australia’s Emissions Are Falling But Not Fast Enough - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Australia emitted 434.9 Mt CO₂-e to Sept 2024 Electricity, transport and agriculture dominate Emissions fell 0.7% from previous year NSW, QLD and VIC emit the most WA, SA, NT driven by oil and gas Transport emissions are rising fastest Australia is ~27–29% below 2005 levels 43% cut by 2030 target remains at risk

Australia’s emissions have declined slightly over the past year, but the path to its 2030 climate target remains uncertain.

National emissions in the 12 months to September 2024 reached approximately 434.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂-e). [1]

This represents a 0.5% decline from the previous year, continuing a modest downward trend. [1]

Yet key sectors like transport and fossil fuel extraction continue to offset more significant gains made in electricity decarbonisation. [2]

Australia’s Sector Emissions Breakdown

The country’s emissions come from six primary sources tracked by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. [2]

As of June 2024, emissions across these sectors totalled 440.6 Mt CO₂-e: [2]

• Electricity generation: ~30% of national emissions; falling due to renewables
• Transport: rising 1.9% year-on-year due to diesel and aviation demand [6]
• Agriculture: stable to slightly falling; methane remains a major component
• Stationary energy (non-electricity): e.g., manufacturing and mining fuel use
• Fugitive emissions: methane leaks from coal and gas operations
• Industrial processes: emissions from materials like cement and steel

Electricity emissions have declined due to solar and wind uptake, particularly in the National Electricity Market. [2]

In contrast, transport emissions remain stubbornly high, with road freight and domestic air travel responsible for most increases. [6]

State and Territory Emissions Profiles

Emissions vary dramatically by jurisdiction, shaped by each state’s energy mix and dominant industries. [3]

According to the State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories for FY2022–23, the largest emitters by volume are: [4]

• New South Wales (NSW): dominated by coal-fired electricity and road transport
• Queensland (QLD): large coal and gas extraction; high fugitive emissions
• Victoria (VIC): brown coal electricity remains a major contributor

Smaller states and territories reveal other trends:

• Tasmania: lowest per capita emissions; high hydro reliance; manufacturing is top sector
• Western Australia (WA):  oil and gas dominate
• Northern Territory (NT) and South Australia (SA): heavy emissions from LNG and mining

Progress and Gaps

National emissions are now around 27–29% below 2005 levels, depending on whether land-use changes are included. [1]

This positions Australia close, but not comfortably, on track for its legislated 43% reduction by 2030. [5]

The federal government’s Climate Change Authority warns more ambitious action is needed to decarbonise transport, manufacturing, and gas exports. [5]

Without sharper cuts, especially in fossil fuel projects and diesel use, Australia risks missing its 2030 target. [6]

Conclusion

Australia’s climate progress is real, but fragile.

Gains in electricity are at risk of being undermined by growth in fossil-heavy sectors like transport and extraction.

State-by-state variations reveal where new efforts are most urgently needed, from cleaner freight systems in NSW to reducing gas dependence in WA and NT.

The clock to 2030 is ticking

Deeper, more systemic changes are essential.

Footnotes

1. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: September 2024 Update – DCCEEW
2. Quarterly Update June 2024 – DCCEEW
3. State and Territory Emissions Profile 2021–22 – Clean Energy Regulator
4. State Inventories 2023 – DCCEEW
5. Guardian: Tracking Australia’s Climate Progress
6. The Australian: Emissions Rise, Hydro Drops

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