Q&A: What is the status and climate impact of Australia’s planned coal and gas expansion projects? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Australia ranks 3rd globally for new coal projects North West Shelf gas extended to 2070 Expansion equals 200+ new coal plants Projects threaten net-zero 2050 targets Critics say emissions cuts are being undone Legal and international pressure intensifies

Australia is powering ahead with fossil fuel expansion despite climate warnings, public protest, and emissions targets.

In the past year, Australia has approved seven major new coal projects and extended key gas facilities, fuelling a fresh wave of domestic and international concern.

The approved coal expansions include extensions to mines in the Hunter Valley and Bowen Basin, while nearly 30 more coal proposals remain under review.

Meanwhile, the North West Shelf LNG project has been green-lit to operate until 2070—locking in long-term emissions that conflict directly with Australia’s net-zero by 2050 commitment.

Coal and Gas: Expanding, Not Contracting

Australia now ranks third globally for new coal mine development, behind China and India.^[1]

The Australia Institute warns that the combined output of proposed fossil fuel projects would emit more than 4.8 billion tonnes of CO₂e by 2030.^[2]

Gas expansion is no less aggressive. Woodside has announced further developments in the Gippsland Basin and major processing plants in Queensland.

Climate Math Doesn't Add Up

The scale of planned expansion is staggering—equal to building more than 200 new coal-fired power stations.^[3]

Experts say these emissions will dwarf reductions achieved through renewable energy and emissions trading schemes.

Australia’s official emissions are down 27% since 2005, but that figure excludes exported emissions and may undercount fugitive emissions from coal mines.^[4]

Policy Schism and UN Warning

Critics argue that expanding fossil fuels while claiming emissions progress amounts to a policy contradiction.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell recently called on Australia to halt fossil fuel expansion and strengthen its 2035 emissions targets.^[5]

At home, environmental groups and First Nations communities are challenging new coal approvals on legal and moral grounds.

The Australian Conservation Foundation says the emissions from new projects outpace climate cuts by 7 to 1.^[6]

Summary Table
Category	Status (as of Aug 2025)	Climate/Emissions Impact
Coal expansions	7 approved major projects; ~30 pending	Adds billions of tonnes CO₂e; undermines Paris ambitions
Gas expansions	North West Shelf extended to 2070; new LNG plans	Long-term emissions lock-in; export scope boosts global impact
Overall footprint	Equivalent to 200+ new coal plants globally	Projects will dwarf domestic climate mitigation efforts
Emissions reporting	Underestimates due to outdated fugitive models	Real emissions may be higher than reported
Policy tension	Mixed signals: mitigation vs expansion	Internal and international criticism, legal challenges ongoing

What's at Stake?

While global pressure mounts and the UN eyes more aggressive action, Australia’s fossil fuel future is on a collision course with its climate pledges.

The choice now is stark: decarbonise or double down. Each new approval sets the country’s climate ambition further back.

Footnotes

1. RenewEconomy – Australia ranks third for new coal projects
2. Australia Institute – New fossil fuel projects emissions report
3. Australia Institute – 200 new coal plants equivalent
4. Ember – Underreporting coal mine emissions
5. Reuters – UN urges Australia to step up climate action
6. ACF – Emissions cuts outweighed 7 to 1

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