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Global warming is accelerating, with the world likely to breach the 1.5 °C target in the next decade.
The planet has already warmed by approximately 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. [1]
The threshold of 1.5 °C was adopted under the Paris Agreement to reflect the level beyond which climate impacts become markedly more dangerous. [5]
Many scientists now argue that the world is highly likely to exceed this threshold in the next 10 years unless emissions fall sharply. [4]
Short-term forecasts show a 70–80% chance of a year exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in the coming five years. [2]
However, exceeding a single year does not mean the long-term 1.5 °C threshold has been breached. It requires sustained warming over decades. [3]
This article examines the evidence on whether the world will cross the 1.5 °C mark in the next decade, the implications of doing so, and the policy actions required to avoid it.
The current state of warming
The most recent IPCC special report assesses that human-induced warming reached roughly 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. [1]
It also notes that, if warming trends continue at the current rate (about 0.2 °C per decade), global average temperature would reach 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052. [1]
Observational data show that annual temperature anomalies are already touching or exceeding 1.5 °C in single years. [2]
Forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggest the five-year mean between 2025–2029 has about a 70% chance of being above 1.5 °C. [2]
What the 1.5 °C threshold means
The 1.5 °C target is a global average surface temperature rise measured against pre-industrial levels (typically 1850–1900). [1]
Exceeding it does not mean instant catastrophe, but the risks of extreme heat, drought, sea-level rise and ecosystem collapse increase significantly. [5]
Importantly, the threshold is about stabilising warming, not just a one-off spike. Temporary overshoots can still be consistent with long-term targets if followed by net-negative emissions. [1]
The IPCC specifies that pathways consistent with staying below 1.5 °C require large reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions within this decade. [6]
Will the world reach it in the next decade?
Under current global policies and emissions pledges (nationally determined contributions or NDCs) the world is on track to exceed 1.5 °C in coming decades. [4]
Statistical analyses using recent monthly temperature data suggest the threshold could be crossed as early as the late 2020s. [4]
That said, model projections of long-term warming averages still place the likely date of crossing around the early 2030s under business-as-usual scenarios. [1]
Given the emissions trajectory and current commitments, a breach within the next decade is plausible and perhaps increasingly probable. [4]
Implications of crossing 1.5 °C
Even if the threshold is passed, the world will still need to pursue emissions reductions because every additional degree adds risk. [5]
Risks include more frequent and extreme heatwaves, larger sea-level rise, loss of coral reefs, and greater strain on food and water systems. [5]
Exceeding 1.5 °C would not necessarily lock the planet into catastrophic outcomes immediately, but it would reduce the margin for avoiding worse scenarios like 2 °C or more. [1]
It would also make adaptation more difficult and expensive, especially for vulnerable countries and ecosystems. [5]
What it would take to avoid exceeding it
To keep warming at or below 1.5 °C, global emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases must drop rapidly, reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions mid-century or earlier. [6]
According to Climate Analytics, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 °C from 2020 was roughly 500 Gt CO₂. [3]
Current emissions far exceed the pace needed to remain within the budget, implying that stronger policies, technology deployment, and lifestyle changes are required. [4]
If such efforts are delayed or insufficient, the world may still exceed 1.5 °C but could aim for stabilising at a slightly higher level to minimise additional harm. [6]
References
- Summary for Policymakers — Global Warming of 1.5 °C ↩︎ Back
- Global climate predictions — WMO ↩︎ Back
- Is the 1.5 °C limit still in reach? — Climate Analytics ↩︎ Back
- Analysis: Breaching the 1.5 °C limit — CarbonBrief ↩︎ Back
- 1.5 °C: What it means and why it matters — UN ↩︎ Back
- Global Warming of 1.5 °C (Chapter 1) — IPCC ↩︎ Back
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