Lethal Heating: Canberra’s Food Security in a Warming World

Key Points

Canberra is not self‑sufficient in food and relies on imports for most of its supply, especially fresh produce and grains.¹
Around 90% of Canberra’s leafy greens and fruit are estimated to come from the Sydney region.²
Climate change threatens food security through more frequent droughts, heatwaves, bushfires, and supply chain disruptions.³
Canberra’s food system is vulnerable because it depends heavily on long supply chains from drought‑prone regions.⁴
The ACT government’s local food strategy aims to boost local production and shorten supply chains to improve resilience.⁵
Low‑income households are most at risk of food insecurity as prices rise and supply chains become less reliable.⁶

Australia's Capital, Canberra, is not self‑sufficient in food and depends heavily on supplies from outside its surrounding Territory, the ACT.¹

Most of the city’s food, especially fresh produce, grains and meat, is brought in from regional NSW, Victoria, and interstate supply chains.¹

Estimates suggest that around 90% of Canberra’s leafy greens and fruit come from the Sydney region, highlighting a high reliance on distant production zones.²

Under climate change, this dependence on long, fragile supply lines increases the risk of shortages, price spikes and reduced access to fresh food.³

Extreme weather, drought, and heat stress in Australia’s key food bowls threaten the stability of the food that reaches Canberra’s supermarkets and pantries.⁴

Government strategies now aim to strengthen local food production and shorten supply chains to build resilience against climate shocks.⁵

But gaps remain in data and policy, particularly on how climate change will affect food access for low‑income and vulnerable Canberrans.⁶

Without stronger action, Canberra’s food system will remain exposed to the growing volatility of a hotter, drier climate.⁷

Is Canberra self‑sufficient in food?

Canberra is not self‑sufficient in food production and cannot feed its population from within the ACT alone.¹

Less than 5% of food consumed in the ACT is produced within the Territory, making Canberra a “food vulnerable” city in terms of local production.¹

The ACT’s rural land is used mainly for wool, beef and lamb, with only a small amount of vegetables, fruit, poultry, and eggs grown locally.¹

Most of the ACT’s food is imported from surrounding regions in NSW and Victoria, and from interstate supply chains that link to national distribution hubs.¹

Where does Canberra’s food come from?

There is no single, up‑to‑date breakdown of Canberra’s food supply by category, but available evidence points to heavy reliance on external sources.¹

For fresh produce, it is estimated that about 90% of Canberra’s leafy greens and fruit come from the Sydney region and its hinterland.²

Grains and cereals are largely sourced from the Murray–Darling Basin and other major grain‑growing regions in NSW, Victoria, and Queensland.⁴

Meat and dairy are supplied from a mix of local ACT farms, nearby NSW producers, and larger interstate processors and distributors.¹

Processed foods, packaged goods, snacks, and beverages are mostly brought in through national and international supply chains, with many items imported from overseas.⁸

Climate change and food security risks

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, heatwaves, bushfires, and floods in Australia’s key food‑producing regions.³

These extreme events can damage crops, reduce yields, kill livestock and disrupt water supplies, leading to lower production and higher food prices.³

Canberra’s heavy reliance on food from drought‑prone regions like the Murray–Darling Basin makes its supply chain especially vulnerable to climate shocks.⁴

Transport disruptions from floods, fires or extreme heat can delay or block the movement of food into Canberra, causing temporary shortages on shelves.³

As climate change progresses, the stability of food availability, access, and affordability in Canberra is likely to decline, particularly for fresh and perishable items.⁷

Government and academic analysis

The ACT government’s Canberra Region Local Food Strategy 2024–2029 explicitly recognises that Canberra is reliant on food produced elsewhere.¹

This strategy identifies food security as a key concern and aims to increase local food production, shorten supply chains and improve access to healthy, affordable food.¹

The ACT’s climate change and circular economy policies also acknowledge that food systems are vulnerable to climate impacts and need to become more resilient.¹

Academic and policy research on Australian cities notes that urban food security depends on stable regional and national supply chains, which are increasingly at risk from climate change.³

Studies have highlighted gaps in data on local food flows, the resilience of regional supply chains, and the specific impacts of climate change on food access for low‑income households.⁶

Policy gaps and proposed solutions

Current policy identifies several vulnerabilities: over‑reliance on distant food sources, limited local storage and distribution infrastructure, and weak support for small producers.¹

Proposed strategies include expanding urban agriculture, supporting local farmers’ markets, and developing a regional “food hub” to improve packaging, storage and distribution.¹

There is also a push to use public land for community gardens and urban farms, and to strengthen food rescue and redistribution networks.¹

For vulnerable households, recommendations include more stable funding for food relief services, better access to affordable, nutritious food, and targeted support during price spikes and supply disruptions.⁶

However, there is still no comprehensive, city‑wide food security plan that fully integrates climate risk, equity, and long‑term resilience.⁶

Uncertainties and research needs

Key uncertainties remain about the exact proportion of each food category (fresh produce, grains, meat, dairy, processed foods) that comes from inside versus outside the ACT.¹

There is limited data on how climate change will affect the reliability and cost of food imports into Canberra over the next 20–30 years.³

More research is needed on the resilience of regional supply chains, the capacity of local producers to scale up, and the impact of climate‑driven price rises on low‑income Canberrans.⁶

To properly assess Canberra’s food security under climate change, authorities would need detailed food flow mapping, climate risk modelling for key supply regions, and regular monitoring of food affordability and access.⁶

Without this evidence base, it will be difficult to design targeted, effective policies that ensure all Canberrans can access safe, nutritious food in a hotter, more volatile climate.⁷

References

Back to Top

16/12/2025

Canberra’s Food Security in a Warming World - Lethal Heating Editor BDA