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Author
Gregory Andrews is:
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As southeastern Australia swelters through its second record-breaking heatwave within weeks, it’s important to connect the dots between the weather here and the global science on a warming world.
A major new study from researchers at the University of Oxford has found that the number of people living with “extreme heat” will nearly double by 2050 if global warming reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
And we all know this is now a scenario that’s almost certain given the lack of political will for rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions.
The study shows almost one-quarter of the world’s population are already living under conditions defined as extreme heat. And twenty years from now, that share is set to expand to over 40 per cent - almost 4 billion people.
In practical terms, what the Oxford team modelled is a world where dangerous heat becomes the norm, not the exception.
Where heatwaves like those Australia is experiencing now aren’t just blips; but rather, sustained heat intense enough to overwhelm human thermoregulation, stress health systems, seriously disrupt food and water supplies, and permanently harm ecological systems.
This shift is also projected to kick in soon after the 1.5 °C threshold. That means it’s happening!
Heatwaves are already Australia’s most lethal natural hazard. They cause more deaths than bushfires, floods, and cyclones combined, disproportionately affecting older people, outdoor workers, First Nations, low-income communities, and anyone without reliable access to cooling. This isn’t hyperbole - it’s what public health data shows.
The science is crystal clear: climate change isn’t just making heatwaves happen - it’s making them hotter, longer, and more frequent. Human-caused warming amplifies the intensity of heat events by stacking the deck with higher baseline temperatures and stronger extremes. With every fraction of a degree of warming, heatwaves climb to new highs, last longer, and occur more frequently.
So as the mercury keeps hitting highs this summer, we can’t treat these events as isolated weather anomalies. They are yet another warning bell of a climate system responding to centuries of burning coal, oil, and gas. And they remind us why half-hearted climate targets and offset accounting won’t cut it.
The world the Oxford researchers describe - one where billions live under prolonged extreme heat - is set to become our children’s normal.
References
- Nearly half the world’s population will experience extreme heat under 2 °C warming
- IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Synthesis Report
- Climate change and health, World Health Organization
- State of the Climate in Australia, Bureau of Meteorology
- State of the Climate, CSIRO
- Increasing frequency and intensity of heat extremes due to human influence
- Extreme heat and human health, Australian Government Department of Health
- The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change
- Emissions Gap Report, United Nations Environment Programme
- Heatwaves are Australia’s new normal and they’re going to get worse
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