amid mounting policy inaction
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One year ago, the Australian Climate Service released the nation's first National Climate Risk Assessment.
The report drew on more than 250 experts and identified 63 nationally significant risks across eight sectors.
Government agencies now use the findings to guide infrastructure, health and emergency planning nationwide.[1]
Twelve months on, Climate Council researchers say Australia remains dangerously exposed to climate risk.
The government has left the original assessment without a follow-up plan or adaptation strategy.
Communities across the country continue facing worsening floods, fires, heat and storms in the meantime.[2]
The Australian Climate Service received $22.9 million over two years to complete the assessment.
The agency is a partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia. Together they compiled more than 70 supporting documents on the nation's climate exposure.[1][3]
The assessment identified 63 nationally significant climate risks across eight key systems. It found disaster recovery spending could surge sevenfold by 2090 under current settings. Heatwave deaths in capital cities could also quadruple at 3°C of global warming.[1]
Coastal hazards could affect 1.5 million people by 2050 and three million people by 2090. Up to 70 per cent of native plant species may face conditions beyond their survivable range by 2050. Remote communities may also be forced to relocate because of extreme heat or rising seas.[1]
The federal government delayed the report's release well past its original 2024 timetable. Publication finally came on 15 September 2025, nine months later than planned. That delay pushed the release well beyond the May 2025 federal election.[1]
Since the assessment's release, the government has approved six coal and gas project extensions. Fossil fuel subsidies continue at a rate of at least $14 billion annually. Climate groups say the approvals directly undercut the assessment's own warnings.[1]
Federal spending on disaster adaptation has fallen well short of earlier commitments. Annual funding under the Disaster Ready Fund dropped from a pledged $200 million to roughly $140 million for 2026-27. That reduction comes as disaster costs across the country continue climbing sharply.[1]
The Climate Council says the shortfall leaves communities exposed to worsening disasters. Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins, a lead author of the assessment, warns the risks remain alarming and clear. He says record pollution and record heat now form a dangerous combination.[2]
Major polluters continue using loopholes in national industrial law to avoid genuine emissions cuts. Accountability gaps of this kind sit at the centre of the Climate Council's concerns. The Council argues stronger enforcement is essential to genuine emissions reduction.[2]
CSIRO, the nation's peak science agency, has announced major staffing cuts. The reductions threaten Australia's capacity for future climate modelling and research. Researchers warn the cuts arrive at precisely the wrong moment for climate science.[1]
Funding for the National Environmental Science Program has fallen by about $30 million. The Australian Climate Service has separately diverted more than $15 million to an external consulting firm. Scientists say every dollar diverted weakens the nation's future risk modelling.[1]
The assessment's Future Climate and Hazard Report identified more than 30 significant gaps in national research expertise. Coordinating authors say the gaps leave Australia poorly placed to plan future adaptation. Filling these gaps will require sustained funding well beyond current levels.[1]
Several other nations, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and New Zealand, already conduct legislated climate risk assessments. Australia's framework remains voluntary, leaving future assessments dependent on political will. Experts argue legislation would guarantee the assessment becomes a lasting national practice.[1]
Australia recorded its fourth-warmest year on record in 2025, with national temperatures 1.23°C above average. Sea surface temperatures around the continent were the warmest on record for a second consecutive year. Heatwave conditions gripped large parts of the country for much of the year.[4]
Scientists describe the following summer as one of breakneck climate whiplash. Communities swung from catastrophic fire danger to record flooding within days. The Otways region on Victoria's coast became the clearest example of the pattern.[5]
In January 2026, more than 200 fires burned across Victoria, some generating their own weather systems. The fires destroyed around 1,590 structures, including 451 homes. Port Augusta reached 50°C, the most southerly point on Earth to do so.[5]
Spring brought further warning signs, with 78 bushfires recorded across south-east Queensland in early September 2026. A blaze near Plainland closed the Warrego Highway and threatened up to 20 homes in the Lockyer Valley. Firefighters described hot, dry conditions as creating dangerous and unpredictable fire behaviour.[6]
Forecasters expect a record-strength El Niño to develop through the remainder of 2026. Climate models point to conditions capable of intensifying heat, drought and fire risk nationwide. Forecasters say the event could rival the strongest El Niño years since 1950.[7]
On the assessment's anniversary, the Climate Council said Australia remains dangerously exposed to climate risk. Adjunct Professor Watkins warned a spring of extremes could again follow the record heat. He says Australia is flying blind without a coordinated national response.[2]
Research suggests climate damage to coastal communities alone could approach $1 trillion by 2100. Researchers argue the figures underline the scale of the accountability gap facing policymakers. Everyday households already carry rising costs through insurance premiums and council rates.[1]
Scientists who contributed to the assessment continue calling for regular, legislated risk reviews. They describe the current report as a foundation that still requires sustained investment and political commitment. Campaigners say sustained commitment alone will break the current cycle of inaction.[1]
Twelve months after Australia received its clearest picture yet of climate danger, the response has fallen short of the warning. Funding cuts, fossil fuel approvals and a stalled adaptation plan sit alongside record heat and escalating fire risk.
The Australian Climate Service produced a rigorous, evidence-based assessment of national vulnerability. Its findings deserve sustained investment in science, adaptation and genuine emissions reduction.
Accountability now rests with policymakers and the communities demanding stronger protection. Australia's climate risk is documented in exhaustive detail across dozens of technical reports.
The task ahead is turning that evidence into lasting, properly funded action for every affected region.
1. It's been one year since Australia assessed its national climate risk. But have we listened?. The Conversation details the assessment's funding, findings, delays and the government response since release.
2. Australia Faces Heightened Climate Risk One Year On. Climate Council statement marking the assessment's anniversary, including comment from lead author Andrew Watkins.
3. Assessing Australia's climate risks. The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water outlines the assessment's methodology and lead agencies.
4. Annual Climate Statement 2025. The Bureau of Meteorology's official record confirms 2025 as Australia's fourth-warmest year since 1910.
5. Breakneck Speed: Summer of Climate Whiplash. The Climate Council catalogues the 2025-26 summer's extreme events, including Victoria's January 2026 fire crisis.
6. Large bushfire causes major disruptions to Warrego Highway west of Brisbane. ABC News reports on the early spring bushfire outbreak across south-east Queensland.
7. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a historically strong El Niño developing through late 2026.
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