over 30 years according to new modelling
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Cobargo, on the New South Wales south coast, is still rebuilding after the Black Summer fires.
Former ACT Emergency Services Authority commissioner Peter Dunn says that toll extends well beyond money.
His message to governments is direct: start preparing now.[1]
Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, a group of former senior fire and emergency service leaders, commissioned the analysis.
Titled Prepare or Pay, the report uses ConnellGriffin modelling to project $181.7 billion in losses over 30 years.
Authorities warn of an unusually warm summer and an early bushfire season.[1]
Emergency Leaders for Climate Action commissioned the modelling from ConnellGriffin.
Economic advisory lead Jessica Yu says the figures count idle farms, closed businesses, lost jobs and harm to health.
The report appendix sets out the full methodology.[2]
The report treats climate-fuelled bushfires as fires that pollution from coal, oil and gas makes more extreme.
Its modelling assumes the current high-emissions scenario continues without major change.
An emissions scenario is a projected pathway for future greenhouse gas pollution.[2]
Co-author Janice Lee calls the estimates conservative. The modelling leaves out losses to wildlife, ecosystems and cultural heritage. She says fires that struck once in a generation now occur more frequently.[1]
Resourcing gaps in fire services compound the risk as seasons lengthen. Firefighting volunteer numbers fell by 10,336 between 2019 and 2023/2024, while paid positions grew by only 433. Greg Mullins, who founded the group, says firefighters need long-term government backing.[2]
Health and wellbeing account for 32 per cent of the $6 billion annual bill. Lost business output follows at 25 per cent, then damaged schools and workplaces at 20 per cent. Damaged homes represent 17 per cent and lost work 6 per cent.[2]
A disaster on the scale of Black Summer would cost $27.7 billion, the modelling shows. Major fires would cost $16.1 billion every three to four years. Harm to health ranks first among the losses, followed by lost business output, damaged buildings and destroyed homes.[1]
Insurance data captures a fraction of that bill. The Insurance Council attributes about $2 billion of the $2.58 billion in bushfire claims since 2019 to Black Summer. Research puts the tourism loss alone near $3 billion.[3]
Longer-run evidence points the same way. The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements cited projections of rising costs. Annual disaster costs would climb from $18.2 billion to $39 billion by 2050, even without climate change.[6]
Black Summer killed 33 people, and smoke caused another 429 premature deaths. Peak health bodies warned that the mental health effects were likely to last decades. Such harm explains why health and wellbeing form the largest share of projected losses.[4]
Smoke particles aggravate existing illness, especially in older people and anyone with heart or lung disease. For people with heart disease, exposure raises the risk of angina (chest pain), heart attack and stroke. Repeated heavy smoke seasons may also affect lung development in some children.[7]
Half of Australian households, about 5.6 million, face some bushfire risk. More than one million Australians lived within one kilometre of an active fire front between 2003 and 2020. El Niño often brings hotter and drier conditions to southern and eastern parts of Australia.[3]
Intangible costs, such as trauma and lost wellbeing, carry no market price. A study of Black Saturday used life satisfaction data to show bushfires significantly reduce reported wellbeing. Its authors identified a gap between current spending on bushfire response and mitigation and the level that would maximise welfare.[8]
Fire seasons are 21 per cent longer than in 1979. That shrinks the windows for hazard reduction burns, which are planned fires that cut flammable fuel. It also limits how much states and territories can help each other.[2]
The report links pollution from coal, oil and gas to worsening extreme fire weather. Former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner Greg Mullins says fire-generated storms are six times more common than 20 years ago. He urges political leaders to stop approving new coal and gas projects.[2]
The report describes a new era of fire, with major events striking every three to four years. A hotter baseline now combines with El Niño, an unusual warming of the central Pacific that is shaping as record-breaking. Mullins warns that the 2027/2028 summer could prove hotter still.[2]
Black Summer shows how far one catastrophic season spreads. WWF-Australia commissioned scientists who estimated that the fires killed or displaced nearly three billion animals. WWF-Australia chief executive Dermot O’Gorman called the findings shocking.[9]
Cutting bushfire damage by a fifth could prevent $39.4 billion in losses, according to Janice Lee. That reduction would protect $17 billion in tax revenue. It would also sustain more than 5,600 jobs each year.[1]
Protecting homes and infrastructure could avoid about $600 million in bushfire losses each year. Priorities include upgrading homes to bushfire standards so that they withstand fire. Communities also need electricity and communications after a fire.[3]
The report urges the Australian Government to finalise and fund a detailed National Adaptation Plan. It recommends retrofitting at-risk homes to national bushfire standards at an estimated $39,466 per home. It also seeks 48 hours of backup power for mobile towers in high-risk areas and a domestic aerial firefighting capability.[2]
The Productivity Commission’s inquiry report projects that climate hazards could cause up to $744 billion in property damage by 2100. Adapting existing properties and improving land planning could cut that damage by up to $240 billion. Analysis by XDI modelled the reduction from greater housing resilience measures.[5]
The $181.7 billion projection exposes a gap between what bushfires cost and what Australia invests to prevent them. Health, business and housing losses accumulate each year, long before any single catastrophe arrives.
Accountability rests with governments that set emissions policy, approve fossil fuel projects and fund fire services. Shrinking volunteer ranks and unfinished adaptation planning show where preparation lags. Responsibility for closing that gap sits with the Commonwealth and every state and territory.
The modelling gives prevention a measurable value. Cutting damage by a fifth could protect $39.4 billion and thousands of jobs. That gives governments a financial case to act before the next major fire.
1. Bushfire bill blows out to $6b a year as climate warms. AAP report in The New Daily summarising the $181.7 billion estimate, the Black Summer and major-fire costs, and the benefits of a 20 per cent damage reduction.
2. New report: climate-fuelled bushfires to cost Australia $6bn a year, as El Niño raises risks. Emergency Leaders for Climate Action media release setting out the cost breakdown, fire season findings, methodology note and National Adaptation Plan recommendations.
3. Supercharged fire seasons cost Australia $6b annually as El Niño summer looms. ABC News report, republished by WillyWeather, covering household exposure, insurance claims, tourism losses and the $600 million avoidable-loss estimate.
4. Bushfires cost billions in physical, mental healthcare. The Medical Republic report recording the deaths and smoke-related premature deaths from the 2019-20 fires and the warning about long-term mental health effects.
5. Climate hazards projected to cause up to $744 billion in property damage by 2100. XDI summary of the Productivity Commission inquiry report and the modelled damage reduction from housing resilience measures.
6. Unpacking the Bushfire Royal Commission report. Climate Council summary of the Royal Commission findings, including projected increases in annual disaster costs to 2050.
7. How to protect yourself and others from bushfire smoke. Australian National University guidance describing smoke effects on people with heart or lung disease, older people and children.
8. The social cost of the Black Saturday bushfires. Peer-reviewed study in the Australian Journal of Social Issues that values the psychological cost of bushfires through life satisfaction data.
9. Fires kill, displace three billion animals. The Canberra Times report on the WWF-Australia commissioned estimate of animals affected by the 2019-20 fires.
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