to peak in December on a hotter planet
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In January, Alice Springs (Mparntwe) endured 20 days above 40°C.
Researchers who interviewed 30 First Nations people in central Australia found that homes trapped heat and power supplies faltered.
Communities adapted by rescheduling activities and sharing cooling resources.[9]
El Niño, a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, now strengthens toward the most extreme level on record.
This event tests whether Australian governments have acted on the warnings they hold.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a near-100 per cent chance that it persists through February 2027.[2]
In September, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gave a 75 per cent chance that October to December would surpass every El Niño since 1950. It set the bar at +2.5°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, a Pacific measure that removes tropical-wide warming.
The agency also sees a better than 90 per cent chance of a very strong event during the northern winter.[1]
The WMO forecasts central Pacific (Niño 3.4) temperatures near +3.7°C above normal for October to December. That reading would beat the previous seasonal record of +2.6°C from November 2015 to January 2016. The anomaly climbed from +1.6°C in June to +2.5°C in August.[2]
The benchmark depends on the index. NOAA's relative index still ranks 1997-98 above the current reading, while daily Niño 3.4 data show a new extreme. On 21 September the daily value hit +3.08°C, topping the +3.02°C of November 2015.[3]
The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño on 16 June as Niño 3.4 readings passed the +0.8°C threshold. The weekly relative Niño 3.4 value reached +2.72°C in late September. Further intensification looks likely during the rest of spring.[4][10]
El Niño releases heat the ocean has already stored beneath the surface. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told the Global Heat Forum that this ocean is the warmest on record. Strong events therefore often coincide with some of the hottest years on record, as in 2024.[2]
Climate Council scientists place this event in an Australia significantly hotter than 120 years ago. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has reached its highest level in 800,000 years. Andrew Watkins says today's La Niña years run hotter than El Niño years that counted as hot last century.[10]
The University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimates that this El Niño could lift global land temperatures about 1.2°C. By February, that heat could cause more than 450,000 additional deaths worldwide. NOAA climate scientist Nathaniel Johnson expects the peak to arrive within the next few months.[3]
Whether climate change strengthens El Niño itself remains contested. Johnson says the science remains unsettled on how warming affects an event this extreme. Climate scientist Nathan Lenssen notes that a warmer ocean gives El Niño more energy to release.[3]
The earliest warning signs sat below the surface. The Bureau reports that equatorial upper-ocean heat in July reached the highest level on record since 1979. That reserve fuels further warming at the surface, according to the Bureau.[4]
Atmospheric signals followed the ocean heat. Trade winds, the steady easterlies that push warm water westward, have weakened or reversed across the western tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index, the Tahiti-Darwin pressure difference, averaged -29.1 in July, the most negative July on record.[4]
NOAA says the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflects a strengthening El Niño. Coupling means the warm ocean and the shifting winds and rainfall amplify one another. Convection and rainfall have intensified from the central to the eastern Pacific.[1]
Strength and ocean heat reserves also set the event's lifespan. The Bureau expects warming to continue through spring and peak in late spring or summer. It expects the event to persist into autumn 2027.[4]
A record Pacific signal delivers uneven local outcomes. The Bureau stresses that El Niño is only one of many influences on Australia's seasonal weather. The Indian Ocean Dipole, the sea-surface temperature gap between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean, also steers rainfall.[4]
The Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC), the national council for fire and emergency services, has published its spring outlook. It flags increased bushfire risk in parts of six states and the Northern Territory, though fires can still strike elsewhere. Below-average rainfall has raised that risk in eastern Tasmania and parts of Victoria.[5]
Overseas, impacts spread beyond the tropics by late fall. Johnson expects more rain over the southern United States and drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Lenssen cautions that ocean warming has made some historical mid-latitude changes less likely, as California's modest 2023-24 rainfall showed.[3]
Oceans around Australia already run warm. In early August, waters off southern New South Wales and eastern Tasmania ran 2 to 3°C above average. The Bureau reports that global sea-surface temperatures remain at record levels.[4]
India's southwest monsoon finished 13 per cent below normal, an 11-year low, according to rating agency ICRA. Farmers planted 1.2 per cent less area to kharif, the monsoon-season crop, than a year earlier. Low reservoir storage in Punjab and Rajasthan also threatens winter wheat sowing, ICRA warns.[6]
Physician Kate Charlesworth says extreme heat causes about 10 times more hospitalisations than any other extreme weather. Households also paid up to $700 more for home and contents insurance in 2025 than a year earlier. Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie says Australians bear the second-highest disaster costs in the world.[10]
The Australian Climate Service released Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment in 2025, identifying who faces the greatest risk. Those groups include the elderly, the very young, people with health conditions, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Remote residents ask for local housing design that withstands heat, shaded communal spaces and timely repairs.[7][9]
Planning decisions on fossil fuels proceed beside those findings. The NSW Independent Planning Commission has approved extending Hunter Valley Operations coal mining until 2045. The Climate Council estimates the project would release more than 800 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.[8]
The evidence converges on a single mechanism. El Niño releases heat that human-driven warming has already stored in the ocean. NOAA, the WMO and the Bureau agree on the scale of the coming peak.
Local outcomes remain uneven, and that uncertainty raises the value of preparation. Older Australians, remote First Nations communities and households facing higher premiums carry the heaviest exposure. Heat, fire and rising insurance costs can arrive together.
Responsibility rests with governments that hold the warnings and sign the approvals. Adaptation plans carry weight when emissions decisions follow the same evidence. Accountability begins with that alignment, and the coming summer will measure it.
1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (September 2026). NOAA's monthly outlook supplies the 75 per cent probability of a historic event and the better than 90 per cent chance of a very strong one.
2. World Meteorological Organization, Sea-surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Niño. The WMO's October update sets out the +3.7°C forecast, the record comparison and Celeste Saulo's explanation of stored ocean heat.
3. Science News Explores, 2026's El Niño is record-breaking. Two US climate scientists explain the daily record, the Climate Impact Lab heat-death estimate and the debate over climate change and El Niño.
4. Bureau of Meteorology, Southern hemisphere monitoring. The Bureau's monitoring page reports the Niño 3.4 values, ocean heat, trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index and outlook into autumn 2027.
5. AFAC, Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Spring 2026. The national fire council maps where fire authorities and Bureau forecasters expect increased bushfire risk this spring.
6. Business Standard, Monsoon deficit threatens crop output, adds to food inflation risks. The report summarises ICRA's analysis of India's 13 per cent monsoon shortfall and its risks for crops and reservoirs.
7. Clayton Utz, Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan. The law firm's summary lists the groups the federal assessment identifies as facing the greatest climate risks.
8. The Canberra Times, Life of major coal project extended until 2045. The AAP report covers the approval of the Hunter Valley Operations extension and the Climate Council's 800 million tonne estimate.
9. Phys.org, Extreme heat is harming remote First Nations communities. Researchers who interviewed 30 First Nations people describe heat-trapping homes, unreliable power and community-led adaptation priorities.
10. Climate Council, Climate pollution and El Niño: a dangerous double act. Climate Council scientists and a physician outline the combined risk of El Niño, climate pollution, heat illness and rising insurance costs.
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