into summer with rising heat and fire risk
| Key Points |
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On 25 September, Menindee reached 37.0°C, the hottest reading in NSW that month.
Mudgee Airport collected 2.4 mm of rain across the entire month against an average of 54.3 mm.
That total equalled about 4% of its usual September rainfall.[1]
Those readings point to a pattern rather than a freak month.
Record winter warmth, drying soils and rising fire costs now converge on a state still building its heat defences.
This investigation examines the evidence, the communities exposed and the accountability gaps in the official response.
NSW area-averaged rainfall totalled 28.1 mm in September, 80% below the 1961–1990 average.
Area-averaged figures merge gridded station readings into one statewide value for comparison with the long-term average.
The result ranks as the fourth-driest September since 1900.[1]
Parts of the Central Tablelands and neighbouring districts recorded their lowest September rainfall since 1900.
Dubbo Airport collected 0.4 mm, about 1% of its September average. Dunedoo and Merriwa each recorded 0.0 mm for the month.[1]
Heat compounded the dryness, with Mungindi’s September days averaging 30.5°C, or 5.2°C above normal. The area-averaged mean maximum temperature reached 25.0°C, 4.41°C above average and the third-warmest September since 1910.[1]
Sydney’s Observatory Hill logged six straight days above 23.0°C, the earliest such September run in a record starting in 1859. Albion Park recorded its warmest September night on record, at 18.7°C. Norah Head reached 34.3°C on 21 September, a September record for that site.[1]
Winter 2026 became the warmest on record for NSW, in a series starting in 1910. The area-averaged mean temperature of 12.0°C sat 1.81°C above the 1961–1990 average. That margin beat the previous record of 1.76°C from 2023.[2]
Rain fell unevenly across the state. Inland districts received above-average totals, and far-west sites including Tibooburra Airport had their wettest winter on record. Most coastal areas, apart from the Northern Rivers, finished below average.[2]
Albion Park collected 23% of its winter average rainfall, the lowest on record there. Penrith Lakes recorded 27%, also the lowest. Statewide averages therefore mask sharp local deficits, particularly across Sydney’s west and the Illawarra.[2]
Flash drought describes rapid dryness that heat and low rainfall drive within weeks, leaving little time to prepare. The NSW Combined Drought Indicator blends soil water, plant growth and rainfall data. Central Tablelands land in its Drought category rose from 0.4% in August to 10.9% in September, including Mudgee and Rylstone.[3]
Former senior fire and emergency leaders released Prepare or Pay through Emergency Leaders for Climate Action on 22 October. ConnellGriffin modelling puts bushfire costs at more than $181 billion over 30 years. That averages $6 billion a year.[4]
Fire seasons now run 21% longer than in 1979, the report finds. Major fires now strike every three to four years. Longer seasons shrink the windows for hazard reduction burns and limit interstate help.[4]
The report records a fall of 10,336 firefighting volunteers between 2019 and 2023–24. Paid positions grew by only 433 over the same period. Fire crews are doing more with less, the report warns.[4]
The Black Summer fires burnt about 45% of the Snowy Valleys local government area in 2019–20. In that area the fires killed one person and destroyed almost 200 homes. Some houses remain unrebuilt years later, leaving recovery unfinished as another fire season opens.[7]
The Net Zero Commission, an independent statutory agency, published its Heat Stress Spotlight Report on 21 April 2026. The report sets out nine findings across five action areas. Finding 1 urges a coordinated seasonal heat response plan that promotes early preventative action, health system readiness and workforce planning.[8]
The Commission called extreme heat Australia’s most deadly yet most preventable natural disaster. Older people living alone, infants, outdoor workers and residents of poorly designed social, Aboriginal and rental housing face greatest risk. Targeted action for those groups can prevent much of the harm, the Commission argues.[9]
The NSW Government responded this month, accepting all nine findings. It promised a seasonal heat response plan in 2027 and better methods to track heat-related deaths. That commitment answers Finding 4, which asked NSW Health to track, collect and publish data on heat-related deaths and illnesses.[5][8]
Other findings target planning rules and SafeWork NSW regulations. The Commission wants development controls to address thermal safety and businesses to hold heat stress plans. The Minister for Climate Change, Penny Sharpe, said the government had proposed planning policy changes to reduce heat impacts.[9]
NSW average land temperatures have risen 1.4°C since national records began in 1910. Rising temperatures drive more hot days and severe fire weather days. Sea level rose 12 cm between 1991 and 2023, and projections reach up to one metre by 2100.[6]
The Net Zero Commission’s 2026 Annual Progress Report finds adaptation efforts trailing the scale of the challenge. It calls for stronger governance, clearer roles and accountability, and timely delivery of commitments. It also urges better-targeted adaptation investment, backed by a long-term financing strategy across levels of government.[10]
Prepare or Pay links resilience spending to economic returns. The report finds better fire preparation would save thousands of jobs each year. Early investment therefore protects workers and local economies as well as homes.[4]
Section 20 of the Climate Change (Net Zero Future) Act 2023 let the Commission report on its own initiative. The Minister must publish a response within six months. That deadline gives the public a date against which to measure delivery.[8]
September 2026 compressed several slow trends into one month. Record winter warmth, a parched spring start and rising fire costs now overlap across NSW. Each pressure reinforces the others and compounds the risk for exposed communities.
Governments hold the data and the legal duty to act. The seasonal heat plan promised for 2027 will test whether accepted findings become funded programs. Clear ministerial responsibility, public death tracking and timely delivery would show whether the response matches the evidence.
Frontline communities carry the exposure today, from drought-affected tablelands districts to renters in poorly designed housing. Firefighting crews face longer seasons with fewer volunteers and only modest growth in paid staff. Adaptation that matches the scale of the evidence remains the measure of NSW’s response.
1. New South Wales in September 2026. Bureau of Meteorology monthly summary supplying the September rainfall, temperature and station records.
2. New South Wales in Winter 2026. Bureau of Meteorology seasonal summary confirming the record-warm winter and the contrast between inland and coastal rainfall.
3. Central Tablelands Local Land Services. NSW Department of Primary Industries seasonal update tracking drought categories for August and September 2026.
4. New report: climate-fuelled bushfires to cost Australia $6bn a year, as El Niño raises risks. Emergency Leaders for Climate Action media release of 22 October 2026 summarising the Prepare or Pay modelling and firefighter workforce figures.
5. NSW Government responds to Net Zero Commission’s Heat Stress Spotlight Report. AdaptNSW notice of the government response, including acceptance of the nine findings and the 2027 seasonal heat plan commitment.
6. Climate change | NSW State of the Environment 2024. NSW Environment Protection Authority report documenting 1.4°C of warming since 1910 and 12 cm of sea-level rise from 1991 to 2023.
7. Supercharged fire seasons cost Australia $6b annually as El Niño summer looms. ABC News report, syndicated by WillyWeather, on Snowy Valleys losses during the 2019–20 fires.
8. Heat Stress Spotlight Report. Net Zero Commission page listing the nine findings and the minister’s six-month response requirement.
9. Extreme heat the most deadly yet preventable natural disaster, NSW Net Zero Commission says. ABC News report identifying the groups at greatest risk and the regulatory changes the Commission proposes.
10. 2026 Annual Progress Report. Net Zero Commission assessment finding that adaptation efforts trail the challenge and need stronger governance and financing.
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