14/02/2018

Intelligence Agencies Warn Of Climate Risks In Worldwide Threat Assessment

InsideClimate News - John H. Cushman

While top Trump administration officials deny climate change, the intelligence agencies warn global warming can fuel disasters and violent conflicts.
Intelligence officials testified before a Senate committee about global threats. Left to right: FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director Mike Pompeo, National Intelligence Director Dan Coats, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Robert Ashley, National Security Agency Director Michael Rogers and National Geospatial Intelligence Agency Director Robert Cardillo. Credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
In their annual summary of global threats, the nation's intelligence agencies warned on Tuesday that climate change and other environmental trends "are likely to fuel economic and social discontent—and possibly upheaval—through 2018."
While there may not be indications of an abrupt and cataclysmic event on the immediate horizon, the trends are already visible, they said in a statement presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee at a hearing where the Trump administration's top intelligence officials testified.
The statement was matter-of-fact and brief, but unambiguous. Normally, conclusions like these might not deserve much notice. But in an administration where top officials, including some with intelligence responsibilities, have repeatedly questioned the basic science of global warming, such a frank confirmation of the mainstream consensus was striking.
The intelligence agencies' Worldwide Threat Assessment contrasted with two other recent documents issued by the Trump administration: the National Defense Strategy published in January and the National Security Strategy published in December. Both of those broke from the pattern of recent years and omitted climate change as a significant concern.
The intelligence community, instead, aligned itself with science agencies. The report's views reflect those in the thoroughly peer-reviewed interagency National Climate Assessment issued last year, and the facts consistently reported by major scientific agencies like NOAA and NASA.
"Extreme weather events in a warmer world have the potential for greater impacts and can compound with other drivers to raise the risk of humanitarian disasters, conflict, water and food shortages, population migration, labor shortfalls, price shocks, and power outages," the intelligence threat assessment said. It was presented as the written testimony of Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence appointed by President Donald Trump.
"Worsening air pollution from forest burning, agricultural waste incineration, urbanization, and rapid industrialization—with increasing public awareness—might drive protests against authorities, such as those recently in China, India, and Iran," the assessment said.
"Accelerating biodiversity and species loss—driven by pollution, warming, unsustainable fishing, and acidifying oceans—will jeopardize vital ecosystems that support critical human systems. Recent estimates suggest that the current extinction rate is 100 to 1,000 times the natural extinction rate."
Water scarcity and disease outbreaks, two problems related to climate change, also pose risks, it said.
So does the most striking sign of the upheaval, waves of refugees displaced by complex stresses of climate, disease, poverty and other destabilizing factors, the report warned.
"Challenges from urbanization and migration will persist, while the effects of air pollution, inadequate water, and climate change on human health and livelihood will become more noticeable," the assessment said. "Domestic policy responses to such issues will become more difficult—especially for democracies—as publics become less trusting of authoritative information sources."

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None Of Our Insurers Are Keeping Pace With Climate Change

Fairfax - Julien Vincent

If any Australian company needs to come clean over its climate risks, it’s QBE.
Not just so shareholders can understand how secure (or not) their capital is as climate impacts intensify.
Hurricanes belted QBE as well as America. Photo: AP
This is about Australians being able to see just how perilous our future has become without urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Last October QBE said it expected 2017 to be the costliest year in the history of the global insurance industry, flagging a $US600 million ($767 million) hit to its pre-tax earnings. They weren't wrong, nor were they alone.
The triple-whammy of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria hitting the US and Caribbean contributed to a record $US135 billion in payouts globally on natural disasters. Wildfires in California made things worse and, for Australian general insurers, Tropical Cyclone Debbie added to the pain.
Tom Herbstein, of Cambridge University’s insurance industry-funded project ClimateWise, summed it up in saying “climate change fundamentally challenges the existing insurance business model.”
And understandably there have been some drastic responses from within the industry. Hannover Re was even forced to sell its entire stock portfolio, worth €953 million ($A1.5 billion) , prompted by natural disaster claims.
Costly natural hazards are nothing new to QBE or indeed any of Australia’s big three general insurers.
Insurers are divesting their coal investments Photo: Janie Barrett
Last year, individual large claims and natural hazards cost QBE $1.7 billion, or 15 per cent of the company’s net earned premium.
Compare this to the seven year average of 8.1 per cent to 2010, and you get an idea why QBE called it “unprecedented”.
Additionally, over the past decade, IAG under-provisioned for natural hazard claims by almost $1 billion while Suncorp under-provisioned by $1.9 billion.
It appears none of our general insurers are keeping up with the pace of climate change.
By January, QBE had received its fourth downgrade of the financial year, to the frustration of investors and analysts.
With QBE’s annual report due out at the end of this month, it would be reasonable for investors to expect a measure of climate risk disclosure from the insurer.
So far, nothing has been forthcoming. Though QBE is hardly alone. So far, only seven ASX top 50 companies have disclosed analysis of how they perform in a scenario where global warming is held to 2ºC or below.
Although every company faces climate risk to some extent, for QBE it is both acute and direct, since it stems from the impacts of climate change manifesting as claims. Plus, of course, managing the thorny issue of certain parts of the world simply becoming uninsurable.
The Climate Council has highlighted the increases in extreme weather and climate events Australia is facing as climate change intensifies.
But gradual changes to the climate also pose risks to transport, agriculture, infrastructure and most other sectors. For insurance companies, these all have a dollar value attached and bringing those figures to light will show the broader public just how acute the risks of climate change are.
That’s why it’s so important that insurance companies disclose their climate risks and why we need to be ready for what they say.

Global movement
Globally, insurance companies have begun responding to the threat of climate change. While most are keeping their assessment of the risk from climate change a closely guarded secret, many are at least moving to remedy one of the most stark contradictions in the sector: its exposure to highly polluting industries.
AXA, Allianz, Aviva, Lloyds, Munich Re, SCOR and Swiss Re are among those to have divested from coal companies from their investment portfolios, and/or restricted underwriting to the coal industry.
These actions are undertaken on the basis that it is incongruent for insurance companies whose business models are at exposed to th ephysical climate change impacts to be invested in or actively supporting the source of the problem.
Even Suncorp said at its AGM last year it would reduce exposure to fossil fuels in its equity portfolio to a negligible amount over the next two years.
QBE, however, has done no such thing.
Last year, chief executive John Neal revealed QBE was an insurer of Adani and refused to rule out support for projects like the Carmichael coal mine in the Galilee Basin.
Perhaps with new leadership in Pat Regan, investors will start to see QBE join other insurers in disassociating themselves from the activities that cause climate change and disclosing the extent to it is a threat.
Investors need to know. We all need to know.

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Lack Of Women In Energy ‘Holding Back Fight Against Climate Change’

The Guardian - 

Gender imbalance at energy firms and industry events is slowing transition to greener power, claims expert
Women demonstrate against climate change in the US. Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images 
The lack of women in energy companies is holding back the sector’s efforts to tackle climate change, a leading industry watcher has warned.
Catherine Mitchell, a professor of energy policy at the University of Exeter, said poor gender diversity meant the industry was less open to new ideas, in particular the move to a lower-carbon energy system.
“I absolutely do think that the fact that the industry is so dominated by men and particularly older white men it is slowing down the energy transition,” said Mitchell, who has worked on energy issues for more than 30 years and advises the government, regulators and businesses.
An energy conference featuring women-only panels is being held next month to address the lack of visibility of female leaders in the sector.
“I thought we really need to have something where all these women who are great get to speak,” said Mitchell, who has helped organise the event.
Catherine Mitchell, a professor of energy policy at the University of Exeter. Photograph: Simon Burt 
She admitted it was not a given that women are more progressive on energy issues than men, but noted that the “conventional” parts of the sector – fossil fuel power generation and energy networks – are more male-dominated than greener, innovative companies.
“The fact we are not moving is not good for Britain, is not good for the environment,” she said of attitudes slowing the transition to renewable and decentralised energy.
Juliet Davenport, the chief executive of the energy supplier Good Energy, said the argument was credible. “The energy sector is lagging sorely behind other industries in terms of diversity, meanwhile sustainable [green] businesses are very balanced. So the idea that lack of diversity is contributing to the issue of transition to renewables is very plausible,” she said.
Nearly two-thirds of the leading 89 energy companies in the UK have no women on their boards and industry events with men-only panels, or just one woman, are common.
One female energy expert said she had been disinvited from a panel of chief executives at an annual event after a company deputised a female executive.
“It became a panel of CEOs, with a woman, and so they did not ‘need’ another woman,” she said.
Sometimes it is a case of being the only woman in the room. One senior female executive said she was the sole woman at a meeting hosted by an influential male government adviser in London.
Sexual harassment is not unknown either: one female leader, who did not want to be named, said she was groped by the head of a trade body at an awards event several years ago.
Felicity Jones, a partner at the renewables and energy storage consultancy Everoze, recalled being in a speaker’s room at a conference when a fellow speaker asked for a coffee refill, assuming she was one of the catering staff.
“That kind of thing happens, but I laugh it off. Because it works both ways: often my gender gives me an advantage. I do a lot of business development and pretty much all of my counterparts at competitors are men. That means that I stand out,” she said.
Occasionally, the lack of gender diversity breaks out in public. During a recent questioning of energy chiefs by MPs on the impact of a price cap, the Conservative MP Antoinette Sandbach said: “I am quite struck by the panel. We have four men here.”
Sandbach went on to scold the retail chief executive of SSE, Stephen Forbes, for the company’s 19.4% gender pay gap, a figure he attempted to defend.
Some in the industry are making an effort to address the problem, such as the big six lobby group Energy UK, which has banned men-only panels at its events. “The energy sector is undergoing a huge period of transition, which brings with it a huge opportunity to increase gender balance,” said the group’s external affairs director, Abbie Sampson.

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13/02/2018

EU To Refuse To Sign Trade Deals With Countries That Don't Ratify Paris Climate Change Accord

The Independent - Jon Stone

Trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom says Paris clause ‘needed in all EU trade agreements’
Workers adjust and clean the logo of the European Commission at the entrance to its headquarters Reuters
The European Union will refuse to sign trade deals with countries that do not ratify the Paris climate change agreement and take steps to combat global warming, under a new Brussels policy.
Cecilia Malmstrom‏, the EU’s trade chief, said a binding reference to the Paris agreement would be “needed in all EU trade agreements” from now on, noting that it had been included in a deal with Japan.
She said upcoming deals with Mexico and the South American trade bloc Mercosur would also include the clause.
A European Commission spokesperson confirmed that the new EU policy would also apply to a post-Brexit trade deal with the UK – meaning Britain would risk its trade deal with the bloc were it ever to try to back out of the accord.
The move effectively means the 500-million-citizen bloc is throwing its trade might behind tackling climate change.
But the policy also means a future trade deal with the US as long as Donald Trump is in office is off the table for now. The US President has indicated that he will not sign up to the deal to cut greenhouse emissions and has said he wants to renegotiate it – a plan most other countries, including the UK, have rejected.
Conveniently, talks on a trade agreement between the EU and US were effectively frozen from 2016 after Mr Trump was elected.
Donald Trump has heavily criticised the climate change accord Reuters
The Paris accord aims to prevent the earth from warming more than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures. 195 countries have signed the agreement, and 174 have become party to it.
A European Commission spokesperson told The Independent: “All agreements negotiated by the EU include a very substantial chapter on trade and sustainable development with social and environmental standards shaping the agreements.
“Since the deal we concluded last year with Japan, this chapter contains an explicit reference to the ratification and actual implementation of the Paris climate deal.
“This point is a priority for the EU and it would be difficult to imagine concluding an important trade deal without an ambitious chapter on trade and sustainable development attached to it.
“When it comes to the negotiations with the US for a trade agreement, those are ‘frozen’ since the end of 2016.”

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Global Sea Level Rise Rate Speeding Up, 25 Years Of Satellite Data Confirms

ABC Science - Genelle Weule

Satellite data indicates sea levels will rise around 61 cm between now and 2100. (Pexel: Sebastian Voortman)
Key points
  • It was thought sea level rise was accelerating at steady 3mm a year
  • Analysis of first 25 years of satellite data shows rate going up by 3mm a year, plus 0.08mm a year, every year.
  • Acceleration largely being driven by melting of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and likely to increase in future, say scientists
The rate of global sea level rise is accelerating as ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland melt, an analysis of the first 25 years of satellite data confirms.
The study, by US scientists, has calculated the rate of global mean sea level rise is not just going up at a steady rate of 3mm a year, but has been increasing by an additional 0.08mm a year, every year since 1993.
If the rate of change continues at this pace, global mean sea levels will rise 61 centimetres between now and 2100, they report today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"That's basically double the amount you would get if you only had 3 mm a year with no acceleration," said the study's lead author Steven Nerem of the University of Colorado.
But that figure, which is broadly in line with climate modelling, is likely to be a conservative estimate of global mean sea level rise in the future, said Professor Nerem.
"When you try to extrapolate numbers like this you're assuming sea level change and acceleration are going to be the same as they've been over the past 25 years.
"But that's probably not going to be the case.
"We're seeing changes in Greenland and Antarctica that are almost certainly going to be bigger than that in the future," he said.

Putting a number on sea level rise
Global warming drives sea level rises in two ways: by melting land-based ice sheets, and heating up ocean water causing it to expand.
Sea levels have been recorded by a series of four satellites, starting with the 1992 launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, in addition to long-term data captured by tidal gauges.
The Jason-3 satellite is the most recent in a series of four satellites to measure sea levels since 1993. (Supplied: NASA)
Professor Nerem said analysis of tidal gauge records and decadal changes in satellite data in the past had indicated global mean sea level rise was accelerating, but it had been hard to pin down a number.
"We always felt that there was an acceleration, but it's very small and it's difficult to detect," he said.
To arrive at their number, Professor Nerem and colleagues adjusted the satellite data for short-term factors such as the El Niño/La Niña climate patterns, as well as the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which caused sea levels to drop just before the launch of the TOPEX satellite.
On top of the world
They also cross-referenced tide gauge and satellite data to correct anomalies in the TOPEX satellite record proposed in an earlier research co-authored by John Church of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales (UNSW).
"This is the first satellite-based estimate of an acceleration number," Professor Nerem said.
"The number is useful because you can take the rate of sea level change and the acceleration, and extrapolate it in the future and see how it agrees with climate models."
The figure calculated by Professor Nerem's study is similar to those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Charge (IPCC) under its upper 8.5 scenario, which assumes increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
UNSW's Professor Church is the co-convening lead author of chapters on sea level rise in the most recent IPCC assessment report.
He said the length of the new study and the correction of the satellite data was important.
"This is very solid confirmation … there is an acceleration and it's the right magnitude to be consistent with IPCC, Professor Church said.

Ice sheet melting is a real concern
Professor Nerem's team also looked at data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, which monitored changes in Earth's gravitational field, to determine where the figure was coming from.
They found the bulk of the acceleration was caused by the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which contributed 0.02mm and 0.03mm a year, every year, to the overall acceleration rate.
Professor Church said the Antarctic was contributing more to acceleration than previous estimates.
"Ice sheets have huge amounts of equivalent sea level stored in them," Professor Church said.
"I think that's a real concern. The ice sheets are contributing measurably to this acceleration," he said.
Aerial image of rivers and meltwater lakes on the Greenland ice sheet. (Supplied: Maria-Jose Vinas)
Professor Nerem said the next step was to continue looking at the satellite data to get a longer-term picture.
"This was a first detection in the satellite altimeter record, so we just barely have enough time series to feel comfortable publishing an estimate of acceleration," Professor Nerem said.
"In addition, we'll certainly be watching our data to see if there are any rapid changes in the ice sheets that might be detected."
One of the important tools that will enable them to do that will be the launch of a new GRACE satellite in April.
"That allows us to directly observe the ice sheets," he said.

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Observations Show Sea Levels Rising, And Climate Change Is Accelerating It

CNN - Brandon Miller*

Changes in sea level observed between 1992 and 2014. Orange/red colors represent higher sea levels, while blue colors show where sea levels are lower. © from NASA 
Sea level rise is happening now, and the rate at which it is rising is increasing every year, according to a study released Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Nerem provided this chart showing sea level projections to 2100 using the newly calculated acceleration rate. © Steve Nerem 
Researchers, led by University of Colorado-Boulder professor of aerospace engineering sciencesSteve Nerem, used satellite data dating to 1993 to observe the levels of the world's oceans.
Using satellite data rather than tide-gauge data that is normally used to measure sea levels allows for more precise estimates of global sea level, since it provides measurements of the open ocean.
The team observed a total rise in the ocean of 7 centimeters (2.8 inches) in 25 years of data, which aligns with the generally accepted current rate of sea level rise of about 3 millimeters (0.1 inches) per year.
But that rate is not constant.
Continuous emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and melting its ice, causing the rate of sea level rise to increase.
MIAMI BEACH, FL - SEPTEMBER 29: A hotel guest steps out of a hotel into a flooded street that was caused by the combination of the lunar orbit which…© Joe Raedle/Getty Images North America/Getty Images 
"This acceleration, driven mainly by accelerated melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise by 2100 as compared to projections that assume a constant rate, to more than 60 centimeters instead of about 30," said Nerem, who is also a fellow with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science.
Greenland's melting glaciers may someday flood your city
That projection agrees perfectly with climate models used in the latest International Panel on Climate Change report, which show sea level rise to be between 52 and 98 centimeters by 2100 for a "business as usual" scenario (in which greenhouse emissions continue without reduction).
Therefore, scientists now have observed evidence validating climate model projections, as well as providing policy-makers with a "data-driven assessment of sea level change that does not depend on the climate models," Nerem said.
NASA's GRACE mission used satellites to measure changes in ice mass. This image shows areas of Antarctica that gained or lost ice between 2002 and 2016. © NASA 
Sea level rise of 65 centimeters, or roughly 2 feet, would cause significant problems for coastal cities around the world. Extreme water levels, such as high tides and surges from strong storms, would be made exponentially worse.
Consider the record set in Boston Harbor during January's "bomb cyclone" or the inundation regularly experienced in Miami during the King tides; these are occurring with sea levels that have risen about a foot in the past 100 years.
Now, researchers say we could add another 2 feet by the end of this century.
Nerem and his team took into account natural changes in sea level thanks to cycles such as El Niño/La Niña and even events such as the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which altered sea levels worldwide for several years.
The result is a "climate-change-driven" acceleration: the amount the sea levels are rising because of the warming caused by manmade global warming.
The researchers used data from other scientific missions such as GRACE, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, to determine what was causing the rate to accelerate.
Currently, over half of the observed rise is the result of "thermal expansion": As ocean water warms, it expands, and sea levels rise. The rest of the rise is the result of melted ice in Greenland and Antarctica and mountain glaciers flowing into the oceans.
Theirs is a troubling finding when considering the recent rapid ice loss in the ice sheets.
"Sixty-five centimeters is probably on the low end for 2100," Nerem said, "since it assumes the rate and acceleration we have seen over the last 25 years continues for the next 82 years."
"We are already seeing signs of ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, so if they experience rapid changes, then we would likely see more than 65 centimeters of sea level rise by 2100."
Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann, who was not involved with the study, said "it confirms what we have long feared: that the sooner-than-expected ice loss from the west Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is leading to acceleration in sea level rise sooner than was projected."



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12/02/2018

Australia's Solar Power Boom Could Almost Double Capacity In A Year, Analysts Say

The Guardian - 

Last month was the biggest January on record for rooftop installation of solar panals, according to RenewEconomy and SunWiz. Photograph: Lucy Hughes Jones/AAP 
A record-breaking month of rooftop installations and a flood of large-scale solar farms could almost double Australia’s solar power capacity in a single year, industry analysts say.
A massive solar energy boom is being predicted for 2018, after an unprecedented number of industrial solar farms were approved by the New South Wales and Queensland governments last year.
Last month also became the biggest January on record for rooftop installations, according to the renewables website RenewEconomy and industry analysts SunWiz.
With 111MW of new panels, it saw a 69% rise compared with the same month last year and became one of the top five months ever – largely driven by low installation costs and a boost in commercial uptake.
At the same time, nearly 30 new industrial solar farms are scheduled to come on line.
NSW approved 10 solar farm projects last year – twice as many as the year before – and has approved another in 2018. Queensland currently has 18 large-scale projects under construction, which is the most in the country.
The new farms could be operational within the year, according to John Grimes, the chief executive of the Clean Energy Council.
“These solar farms can be built within a matter of weeks,” he said. “They’re really quick and simple.”
Together, the new large-scale projects could add between 2.5GW and 3.5GW to the national grid and rooftop installations could add another 1.3GW, according to the Smart Energy Council’s estimates. This would nearly double the nation’s solar energy capacity, currently 7GW, in a single year.
“The train tracks are about to converge,” Grimes said. “Rooftop installations and utilities are both booming and could turbo-boost the solar numbers overall.”
In Queensland, residential solar panels are already the state’s largest source of energy, producing more combined than the 1.7GW Gladstone power station. Just under a third (30%) of residential homes in the state have solar installed – the most in the country.
With the completion of the new solar farms, solar will provide 17% of the state’s energy. “We’ve turned the sunshine state into the solar state,” Queensland’s former energy minister Mark Bailey said in October.
In New South Wales, the planning minister, Anthony Roberts, said the 10 new solar farms would generate 1.2GW of energy and reduce carbon emissions by more than 2.5m tonnes – the equivalent of taking about 800,000 cars off the road.
In January this year, NSW announced another plant – the 170MW Finley plant in the Riverina – as did Queensland, the 120MW solar farm at Munna Creek.
Grimes said the solar boom “was only going to grow” in future.
“Solar is the cheapest way to generate electricity in the world – full stop,” he said. “It’s not unusual for grid pricing to be north of 20c per kilowatt hour in a majority of jurisdicitions. A solar array, at an average size for an average home, if you amortise the cost over 20 years, the effective rate is 5c per kilowatt hour. That’s called an economic no-brainer.”
He said the rush to install rooftop panels could have been sparked by January’s warm weather and rising energy prices.
“I think people are acutely aware of energy prices. People are running air conditioning and thinking, ‘hooley dooley I’m going to get a bill’.”
2017 saw a record 1.25GW of solar power added to the grid nationally, counting both large-scale solar farms and rooftop panels. The predicted rate of rooftop panels alone in 2018 is expected to be 1.3GW.

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