29/07/2018

Fire, Fire Everywhere: The 2018 Global Wildfire Season Is Already Disastrous

Huffington Post - John Vidal

A warming planet has exacerbated a dire global fire threat brought on by growing cities, poor urban planning and more combustible landscapes.
Yannis Behrakis / Reuters 
Drought turned the surrounding woodland into fuel, strong winds fanned the flames and in just a few hours this week fired consumed the Greek coastal resort of Mati, outside Athens. Homes and hotels were scorched or destroyed, more than 80 people died and many hundreds ran to the sea, seeking refuge from the flames.
Mati is the deadliest wildfire of 2018 so far, but the northern hemisphere fire season now extends from June until October, and more death and destruction is inevitable as one of the strongest, longest-lasting global heatwaves in decades continues to envelop countries from Siberia to the Mediterranean, from North America to East Asia. Temperature records keep getting surpassed, and there’s little rain in the forecast for many regions.
People have had to be evacuated from Yosemite National Park, Sweden has lost an estimated 30,000 hectares of forest and large areas of bone-dry Latvia, Italy, Finland and Norway have all been blanketed in smoke.
The 2018 wildfire season has been dramatic, prompting headlines about the world being on fire, but it is only unusual in that so many places are experiencing major fires at the same time, scientists say. Large blazes wracked Indonesia in 2015, Canada and Spain in 2016, and Chile and Portugal in 2017. In Russia, villages, farmland and more than 1,100 square miles of forest were destroyed in 2010, and again in 2015.
Fires used to be seen as local, but we should see them as part of a global-scale phenomenon.
In the United States, nearly 4 million acres across Arizona, Colorado, Idaho and Oregon have burned so far this year, about 10 percent more than the annual average at this time of year, but still nowhere near the 10 million acres that burned in 2015, according to the U.S. National Interagency Fire Center.
A 2016 report by the European Environment Agency suggests Mediterranean countries are seeing more heat extremes and reduced rainfall, resulting in more forest fires. The number of fires this year across Europe is up 40 percent on average, according to the European Forest Fire Information System.
The disastrous fires are due both to human behavior and planetary change, said David Bowman, a professor of environmental change biology at the University of Tasmania in Australia.
“Growing cities, poor planning, recurring heatwaves, more people living closer to forests and more combustible landscapes have together created a more fire-prone world,” said Bowman.
On top of these factors is the devastating impact of climate change, which through higher temperatures is now accelerating ecological instability. “It is causing fire seasons to start earlier and finish later,” said Bowman. “We are seeing more severe, more intense and longer lasting wildfires causing more loss of life and property. Fires used to be seen as local, but we should see them as part of a global-scale phenomenon.”
Studies in the U.S., Australia and Europe show wildfires increasing in number and scale, and becoming increasingly an urban problem.
“We are confronting more large fires, a tripling of homes burned and more frequent large evacuations in North America,” said Tania Schoennagel, a fire scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder. “This trend will continue in response to further warming.”
Firefighters tackle a forest fire near Potsdam, Germany, on July 26, 2018. JULIAN STAHLE via Getty Images
“Wildland fire can be a friend and a foe,” explains the U.S. Forest Service.
“In the right place at the right time, wildland fire can create many environmental benefits, such as reducing grass, brush, and trees that can fuel large and severe wildfires and improve wildlife habitat,” said a Forest Service spokesman. But In the wrong place at the wrong time, fires can threaten lives, homes and resources.
“Earth has evolved through fire and plants and humans have evolved to adapt to fiery landscapes,” said Andrew Scott, author of a new book, Burning Planet, and professor of geology at Royal Holloway, University of London. “Fire has become the enemy in cities, but we have to learn to live with it.”
The vast majority of fires are caused not by lightning or natural events, but by human error or vandalism, according to the U.S. National Park Service. As much as 90 percent are the result of things like campfires left unattended, the burning of debris, negligently discarded cigarettes or arson.
Growing cities, poor planning, recurring heatwaves, more people living closer to forests, and more combustible landscapes have together created a more fire-prone world.
“Changing climatic and weather conditions are exacerbating these problems,” said Fantina Tedim, a researcher at the University of Porto, Portugal. “Wildland is coming closer to settlements, rural areas are likely to be depopulated with the result that there is less management of forests and more build-up of flammable material.”
Because humans can start fires so easily, there is no simple way to prevent them, short of drastic and likely unfeasible solutions like removing people permanently from susceptible areas or redesigning landscapes to remove trees completely.
“Managing fire is about managing landscape,” said Bowman. “We are creating landscapes that are increasingly flammable. People are living in more and more dangerous environments because they believe technology will keep them safe.”
“We are just not prepared,” he continued. “Will there be more fires? With climate change, yes, lots more. We must get used to them, and learn to adapt. It’s like the earth has thrown down the gauntlet and we are paralyzed.”

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It’s A Savage Summer In The Northern Hemisphere – And Climate Change Is Slashing The Odds Of More Heatwaves

The Conversation -  | 

Firefighters and volunteers battle a blaze near Loutraki in southern Greece. Vassilis Psomas/EPA
In Australia we know about sweltering summer heat. We all remember the images of burned koala paws, collapsing tennis players and, far more seriously, the tragic events of Black Saturday.
Aussies may scoff at Britain’s idea of a heatwave, but this time it’s the real deal and it’s no laughing matter.
Extreme heat has hit locations throughout the Northern Hemisphere, in places as far apart as Montreal, Glasgow, Tokyo and Lapland. In the past few weeks heat records have tumbled in a wide range of places, most notably:
Heat has not been the only problem. Much of northern Europe is experiencing a very persistent drought, with little to no measurable rainfall in months. This has caused the normally lush green fields of England and other European countries to turn brown and even reveal previously hidden archaeological monuments.
There have also been major wildfires in northern England, Sweden and, most recently and devastatingly, Greece. The Greek wildfires came off the back of a very dry winter and spring.

What’s behind the widespread extreme heat?
The jet stream, a high-altitude band of air that pushes weather systems around at lower altitudes, has been weaker than normal. It has also been positioned unusually far to the north, particularly over Europe. This has kept the low-pressure systems that often drive wind and rain over northern Europe at bay.
The jet stream has remained locked in roughly the same position over the Atlantic Ocean and northern Europe for the past couple of months. This has meant that the same weather types have remained over the same locations most of the time.
Weather is typically more transient than it has been recently. Even when we do have blocking high-pressure systems associated with high temperatures in northern Europe, they don’t normally linger as long as this.

Is it driven by climate change?
Although climatologists have made great strides in recent years in the field of event attribution – identifying the human climate fingerprint on particular extreme weather events – it is hard to quantify the role of climate change in an event that is still unfolding.
Until the final numbers are in we won’t be able to tell just how much climate change has altered the likelihood or intensity of these particular heat extremes.
Having said that, we can use past analyses of extreme heat events, together with future climate change projections, to infer whether climate change is playing a role in these events.
We also know that increasing numbers of hot temperature records are being set, and that the increased probability of hot temperature records can indeed be attributed to the human influence on the climate.
In Europe especially, there is already a large body of literature that has looked at the role of human-caused climate change in heat extremes. In fact, the very first event attribution study, led by Peter Stott from the UK Met Office, found that human-caused climate change had at least doubled the likelihood of the infamous European heatwave of 2003.
People in Brussels trying to escape the heat in 2003. EPA Photo/Belga/Jacques Collet
For all manner of heat extremes in Europe and elsewhere, including in Japan, a clear and discernible link with climate change has been made.
Research has also shown that heat extremes similar to those witnessed over the past month or two are expected to become more common as global temperatures continue to climb. The world has so far had around 1℃ of global warming above pre-industrial levels, but at the global warming limits proposed in the Paris climate agreement, hot summers like that of 2003 in central Europe would be a common occurrence.
At 2℃ of global warming, the higher of the two Paris targets, 2003-like hot summers would very likely happen in most years.
Similarly, we know that heat exposure and heat-induced deaths in Europe will increase with global warming, even if we can limit this warming to the levels agreed in Paris.

 But summers have always been hot, haven’t they?
For most parts of the world summers have got warmer, and the hottest summer on record is relatively recent – such as 2003 in parts of central Europe and 2010 in much of eastern Europe. One exception is central England, where the hottest summer remains 1976, although it may be challenged this year.
While extreme hot summers and heatwaves did happen in the past, they were less common. One big difference as far as England is concerned is that its extreme 1976 heatwave was a global outlier, whereas this year’s isn’t.
In 1976 northwestern Europe had higher temperature anomalies than almost anywhere else on the globe. In June 2018 the same region was unusually warm, but so was most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.
So while the persistent weather patterns are driving much of the extreme heat we’re seeing across the Northern Hemisphere, we know that human-caused climate change is nudging the temperatures up and increasing the odds of new heat extremes.

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28/07/2018

'Emphatic': Odds Point To Big Dry Expanding Across Eastern Australia

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Fire authorities, farmers and even water storage managers may be in for even more trying times as odds increase for the drier and hotter conditions across eastern Australia to continue deep into spring.
Places such as Sydney are already on track for record-breaking July temperatures amid the lowest rainfall in decades.
The Bureau of Meteorology's latest three-month outlook, updated on Thursday, points to more of the same for months to come.
There's no sign of a let-up for most of eastern Australia's drier and hotter than average weather. Photo: Johnathan Carroll
While the August-October forecast suggests odds favour a drier and hotter than normal stint for mainland south-eastern Australian, the chances are particularly strong for next month alone, Jonathan Pollock, a bureau climatologist, said.
"It's unusual to have such widespread emphatic odds," Mr Pollock said.
Chance of exceeding the median Rainfall for August
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
"Everywhere south of Armidale [in north NSW] has a greater than 80 per cent chance of below-average rainfall," he said.
So far in July, rainfall totals in NSW have been less than half the norm for much of the state. For the first six months of the year, they were also half the average, marking the driest start to a year since 1986, the bureau has said.
For Sydney alone, this month is on track to being the driest July since 1995 on current forecasts, with just 9.8 millimetres so far collected at Observatory Hill. A typical July would have almost 10 times that, at 96.6 millimetres.

Record warmth
The standout for Sydney, though, may be its daytime temperatures. On Thursday, the mercury climbed above 20 degrees for the eighth day this month, with five more forecast by July 31.

Much of eastern Australia has experienced a very dry first half of the year, and the likelihood of an El Nino developing is around 50-50. Vision: Bureau of Meteorology.

The record number of such days is 12, in 2013. Even if the record is not broken, there's a fair chance the bar will be lifted for maximum temperatures, also set 2013 at 19.5 degrees. A typical July averages 16.4 degrees.
As Fairfax Media reported on Monday, authorities have already brought forward the start of the official fire season for parts of north-eastern NSW.  Some other regions, where the season would typically start in October, are likely to be brought forward to September.
Chance of exceeding the median Max Temp for August
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Farmers wilt
Mr Pollock said parts of the state had soil moisture levels down to 1 per cent of normal conditions, hammering farmers.
Sheep hunt for grass on a farm near Manilla, not far from Tamworth, in northern NSW. Photo: Peter Hardin
Among other things, it also means rainfall when it comes would likely be first soaked up in the soils rather than ending up in dams and rivers.
"That's bad news for water storage," Mr Pollock said.
The reason for the lifting of odds for poor rainfall and warmer-than-usual conditions is partly a cooling of waters off Western Australia of late. This shift tends to reduce moisture over the continent.
There have also been weaker and fewer rain-bearing cold fronts extending into south-eastern Australia amid generally relatively weak westerly winds, Mr Pollock said.

El Nino lurks
While the bureau's outlook only covers the coming three months, there are few signs the pattern will be breaking up soon. In fact, it could extend beyond spring, if an El Nino forms in the Pacific later this year.
The current odds for an El Nino - which typically means less rainfall than usual and higher temperatures across much of Australia - are about 50-50, Mr Pollock said.
Five of the bureau's eight main international models it analyses point to El Nino thresholds being crossed by the spring, and a sixth has it reached by December.

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Federal Labor, Experts Call For Full Release Of Energy Plan Modelling

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

The Turnbull government and regulators must release the modelling underpinning the National Energy Guarantee to reassure the public that projected savings are real, Federal Labor and leading analysts said.
The call comes as discrepancies appear both with the policy's own figures - handed to state and territory governments this week by the Energy Security Board - and with those of one of the board's key members.
What are the underlying assumptions that have gone into the National Energy Guarantee's forecasts?
Labor-led state and territory governments are planning to caucus a range of demands on the energy plan for the federal government in coming days.
Seeking some form of external peer-review of the board's modelling for its full final design paper has been raised with at least one state government, Fairfax Media understands.
One complaint is governments are under excessive pressure to reach a decision by the next COAG energy ministers meeting set for August 10 in Sydney without all the information before them.
A key sales pitch by the board is the estimate, revealed this week, that the scheme will cut households' power bills by an average $150 a year - as part of $550 in overall savings - during the first decade of its operation, starting from 2020.
"Where is the modelling that proves this?" Mark Butler, federal Labor's climate spokesman said. "All modelling of the NEG should be made available so stakeholders and the public can properly assess its merits."
Josh Frydenberg, federal Environment and Energy Minister, declined to comment on any modelling release, but said: “The National Energy Guarantee will deliver a more affordable and reliable energy system. Modelling undertaken by the independent experts from the Energy Security Board shows households will be $550 a year better off under the Guarantee compared to today.”
A board spokeswoman said the body "is yet to publish the final detailed design [of the plan]," but had "real confidence that the design can deliver on the objectives of affordable, reliable and clean power for Australian households and businesses".
Liberal-led NSW is not among those pressing for additional data.
"The modelling is an internal matter of the Energy Security Board," a spokesman for Don Harwin, NSW's Energy Minister, said.
Bruce Mountain, director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre - set up recently by that state's Labor government - said the guarantee's projected cost savings were difficult to understand.
Since the emissions target of the plan - cutting 2005-level carbon pollution in the electricity sector by 2030 - will be achieved almost as soon as the scheme begins, the driver of falling prices was unclear, he said.
"How can a policy that is designed to do something that will happen anyway cause prices to be any lower than they would be anyway?" Mr Mountain said, adding that since state governments would sign off on the plan, they should be asked to demonstrate the savings were real.
Dylan McConnell, an energy expert at Melbourne University, noted assumptions contained in the version of the plan leaked to the public this week were at odds with those formally released a week earlier by the Australian Energy Market Operator in its Integrated System Plan.
For instance, the market operator included in its base case the state-run renewable energy plans for Victoria and Queensland. They would help lift clean energy's share of the electricity sector to 46 per cent by 2030 - not far shy of federal Labor's pledge of 50 per cent.
That additional generation, however, is absent in the board's modelling even though the market operator is one of its members and the Victorian target is legislated.
Similarly at odds is the board's modelling that assumes the multibillion-dollar Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro scheme - a key Turnbull government proposal - will go ahead while the market operator does not have project in its base scenario, Mr McConnell said.
The board's modelling "is certainly not consistent" with the market operator's, he said.

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Heatwave Made More Than Twice As Likely By Climate Change, Scientists Find

The Guardian - 

Fingerprints of global warming clear, they say, after comparing northern Europe’s scorching summer with records and computer models
The dried-out riverbank of Elbe in Magdeburg, eastern Germany … climate change link to heatwave proven, scientists say. Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images
The heatwave searing northern Europe was made more than twice as likely by climate change, according to a rapid assessment by scientists.
The result is preliminary but they say the signal of climate change is “unambiguous”. Scientists have long predicted that global warming is ramping up the number and intensity of heatwaves, with events even worse than current one set to strike every other year by the 2040s.
“The logic that climate change will do this is inescapable – the world is becoming warmer, and so heatwaves like this are becoming more common,” said Friederike Otto, at the University of Oxford and part of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium that did the work.
“What was once regarded as unusually warm weather will become commonplace, and in some cases, it already has,” she said. “So this is something that society can and should prepare for. But equally there is no doubt that we can and should constrain the increasing likelihood of all kinds of extreme weather events by restricting greenhouse gas emissions as sharply as possible.”
The new analysis is a climate-change attribution study. By comparing extreme weather with historical measurements and with computer models of a climate unaltered by carbon emissions, researchers can find how much global warming is increasing the risk of dangerous weather.
The researchers analysed records of the hottest three-day period at seven weather stations in northern Europe, from Ireland to the Netherlands to Scandinavia, where data was easily accessible.


Why is it so hot? – video explainer 

 “We found that for the weather station in the far north, in the Arctic Circle, the current heatwave is just extraordinary – unprecedented in the historical record,” said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and also part of WWA.
Across northern Europe, the group found global warming more than doubled the risk of scorching temperatures. “We can can see the fingerprints of climate change on local extremes,” he said. “It is amazing now that it is something you can really see at a local level.”
“Most heatwave studies have been done on large scale averages, so European-wide temperatures,” said Otto. “In this study, we have looked at individual locations, where people live, to represent the heatwave people are actually experiencing.” The analysis is a preliminary study as a full study requires many climate models to be run on high-powered computers, which takes months.
Previous attribution analyses have shown very strong connections between climate change and extreme weather events. The scorching summer in New South Wales, Australia, in 2016-17 was made at least 50 times more likely by global warming, meaning it can be “linked directly to climate change”, said the scientists.
The “Lucifer” heatwave across Europe’s Mediterranean nations in 2017 summer was made at least 10 times more likely by climate change, while the unprecedented deluge delivered in the US by Hurricane Harvey also in 2017 was made three times more likely by climate change, new research has found. However, other events, such as storms Eleanor and Friederike, which hit western Europe in January, were not made more likely by climate change, according to the scientists.
In Europe, the heatwave has been caused by the stalling of the jet stream wind, which usually funnels cool Atlantic weather over the continent. This has left hot, dry air in place for two months – far longer than than usual. The stalling of the northern hemisphere jet stream is being increasingly firmly linked to global warming, in particular to the rapid heating of the Arctic and resulting loss of sea ice.
The role of climate change in driving extreme weather events may actually be underestimated by these attribution studies, according to Prof Michael E Mann at Penn State University in the US. The work is good, he said, but computer models cannot yet reliably account for the complex jet stream changes caused by global warming, making the attribution studies “inherently conservative”.
Serious climate change is “unfolding before our eyes”, said Prof Rowan Sutton, director of climate research at the University of Reading. “No one should be in the slightest surprised that we are seeing very serious heatwaves and associated impacts in many parts of the world.”
The wide geographical spread of the heatwave, right across four continents, points to global warming as the culprit, said Prof Peter Stott, a science fellow at the UK’s Met Office: “That pattern is something we wouldn’t be seeing without climate change.”
The heatwave across northern Europe has seen wildfires in the Arctic Circle and prolonged heat across the UK and the European continent. In the south, fierce blazes have devastated parts of Greece, with scores of people killed.
But extreme weather has struck across the globe. Severe floods killed at least 220 people in Japan in early July, with the nation then hit by an “unprecedented” heatwave that peaked at 41.1C and left 35,000 people in hospital. In the US, extreme heat in the west is feeding wildfires, with Yosemite national park being evacuated, while flooding is affecting the east.
Temperature records have also fallen in Taiwan, with a temperature of 40.3C in Tianxiang, and in Ouargla in Algeria’s Sahara desert, which reported a maximum temperature of 51.3C, the highest temperature ever reliably recorded in Africa. The first six months of the 2018 are the hottest recorded for any year without an El Niño event, a natural climate cycle that raises temperatures.

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27/07/2018

The Guardian View On The Heatwave: Our Climate Is Endangered

The Guardian - Editorial

Adapting to hotter temperatures is sensible – but ignoring their causes is dangerous
A woman crosses a bridge at the Llwyn-on reservoir, near Merthyr Tydfil, Wales, which has vastly reduced water levels as a result of the heatwave. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty 
The NHS is experiencing a “summer crisis”, with increased emergency admissions and uncomfortable conditions in buildings not equipped for the heat, while the Met Office has warned that the UK temperature record of 38.5C could be broken on Friday. Authorities in Greece are dealing with the aftermath of devastating wildfires that killed at least 85 people, while efforts to control blazes in Sweden and in California continue. In Japan, 23,000 people have been taken to hospital in the past week and the weather described by officials as a “disaster”. In Algeria, a new African record has been set of 51.3C.
Weather systems are highly complex and scientists are cautious about assigning specific causes to one-off events. But experts are already pointing to global warming as a driver for the current heatwave, with a study based on computer models and temperature data due to be published by scientists at Oxford University on Friday. Meanwhile, a new report from the environmental audit committee points to the likelihood of more frequent heatwaves in future, and the UK government’s failure to prepare adequately for them.
There’s nothing wrong with enjoying the heatwave, as many people are. Such a long spell of warm weather is extraordinary and, for sun lovers, a treat. No doubt many are hoping it doesn’t break before they take their holidays. But whether or not any more records are broken, or wildfires ignited in the coming weeks, the claim that rising temperatures have nothing to do with the global state of extreme weather must not go unchallenged.
When the former US environment secretary Scott Pruitt was asked about climate change following Hurricane Harvey last year, he said that it was not the right time to talk about it. The opposite case is that the aftermath of an extreme event, when the atmospheric conditions have become the news, rather than the backdrop to the news, can be a “teachable moment”, when different kinds of conversations become possible.
One of those conversations is the one about adaptation. Since some effects of climate change are now inevitable, we must deal with them. As this week’s committee report says, building regulations must be altered to ensure heat resilience, and new measures must be brought in to improve drainage and water efficiency.
The public information campaign that the committee calls for is even more urgent. The 2008 Climate Change Act commits the UK government to reducing emissions by 80% of their 1990 levels by 2050. The latest British Social Attitudes survey showed that more than 90% of British people accept that climate change is happening. But only around a quarter describe themselves as very worried about this. Politicians, along with journalists, scientists and others, have a responsibility to make sure that people know what to expect and can make informed decisions – for example, about how to heat and insulate their own homes.
Treating the symptoms of climate change makes no sense if the causes are not tackled at the same time. British laws – as well as the Paris agreement – commit the UK government to doing this, meaning decarbonisation of the electricity supply, heating and transport. These measures have cross-party support, but commitment by politicians is inconsistent. Just a few weeks ago, parliament approved a new runway at Heathrow, a decision that now faces a legal challenge. This week, the government gave approval for fracking in Lancashire, enraging all those who fear that this is proof – combined with slashed solar subsidies, the de facto ban on new onshore wind farms, and the rejection of the Swansea bay tidal scheme – that the government is unenthusiastic about renewables.
Enjoy the sun if you can. We only live once and in countries with temperate climates such as the UK not all of the effects of climate change are necessarily harmful. Domestic tourism could even benefit. But don’t lose sight of the suffering caused by higher temperatures. In all our hands rests the future of life on earth.

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26/07/2018

The Global Heatwave Is About To Hit Your Wallet

Bloomberg - Rachel Morison | Marvin G Perez | Nicholas Larkin

Scorching weather across the globe makes fields too dry for crops, rivers too warm to cool power plants, and leaves wind turbines idle – and it’s pushing commodities prices higher
A combine harvester cuts a field of rapeseed in the U.K. Major crops are expected to be smaller due to dry conditions. Photographer: Bloomberg Creative Photos/Bloomberg
Commodity producers are having a summer to remember, for all the wrong reasons.
A heatwave across swathes of North America, Europe and Asia, coupled with a worsening drought in some areas, is causing spikes in the prices of anything from wheat to electricity. Cotton plants are stunted in parched Texas fields, French rivers are too warm to effectively cool nuclear reactors and the Russian wheat crop is faltering.
The scorching heat is extracting a heavy human cost – contributing to floods in Japan and Laos and wildfires near Athens. Relief from soaring temperatures, which topped 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) in the Arctic Circle,  may not arrive for at least two weeks.
It’s a timely reminder of the vulnerability of global commodity markets to the changing climate, as human activity disrupts the behavior of plants, animals and the march of the seasons.
Grain Pain
Wheat prices surge to a three-year high as the heatwave hurts Europe's crop

Source: Euronext
The heat and lack of rainfall is pummeling crops across Europe as far as the Black Sea. Output in Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, is set to fall for the first time in six years, while concerns continue to mount about smaller crops in key growers such as France and Germany. Wheat futures for December have jumped almost 10 percent in the past month in Paris, with prices this week reaching the highest since the contract started trading in 2015.
After years of bumper harvests, global output could drop this year for the first time since the 2012 to 2013 growing season. This could have political and social ramifications. Egypt, which relies on subsidized bread to feed its almost 100 million people, is already paying the highest price for its imports in more than three years.
French Power
High temperatures are forecast to continue in France, disrupting power plants
Source: The Weather Co. using GFS model


French farmers aren’t the only ones finding the weather too hot to handle. The country’s fleet of nuclear power plants is also suffering. Rivers have become too warm to effectively cool the reactors, and Electricite de France SA may be forced to cut output later this week at two stations. The hot weather also has forced a German coal-fired plant to curb operations and reduced the availability of some plants in Britain fired by natural gas.
France gets more than 70 percent of its power from 58 atomic stations and is a net exporter of electricity to neighboring countries. Any reductions in output would potentially boost prices across the continent.
The sultry conditions are also leaving wind turbines virtually at a standstill. In Germany, wind output over the past 10 days has been a third lower than the average for the year so far. Windmills are also becalmed in Spain, Italy, the U.K., Denmark and Sweden. Solar operators are enjoying the weather, but they can’t fill the gap left by wind and demand for natural gas is rising.
French and German day-ahead wholesale power is at the highest for the time of year for a decade, while in Britain they’re the most since at least 2009.
Texas Power Surge
Electricity prices surge as Texas heat smashes records
Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg
Over in Texas, prices are also jumping due to the heat. The northern part of the state smashed a 93-year-old daily temperature record last week, sending demand surging as people heeded advice to stay indoors and crank up their air conditioning. Wholesale prices for electricity secured a day in advance reached three-year highs, although they’ve since fallen as temperatures moderated.
Temperatures got so high that the National Weather Service was advising north Texas residents to avoid walking their dogs, lest they burn Fido’s paws. But for farmers in the west of the state, the drought was hurting even more than the heat.



The West Texas cotton belt – the world’s most productive area for the crop – is brown, baked, cracked and dusty. The dryness is so bad that close to half of the state’s crop is in poor or very poor condition, U.S. government data show. About 4.5 million acres of the fiber are planted in the region, 60 percent of which depends on rain because it isn’t irrigated.
"I lost everything in the dry land,” said Lloyd Arthur, a fourth-generation farmer in Crosby County. He’s not expecting to harvest anything from about a quarter of the 2,000 acres of cotton he sowed this season.
Stunted Crop
Cotton futures are up more than 10% this year on drought fears
  
Ron Harkey, the president and chief executive officer of the world’s largest cotton warehouse in Lubbock, expects to get 1.5 million bales from members of a growers cooperative in the area this year. That’s down from 2.5 million last season. Tighter supplies have helped drive cotton traded in New York up more than 10 percent this year.

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